Freddy (1969–1971) and Freddy II (1973–1976) were experimental robots built in the Department of Machine Intelligence and Perception (later Department of Artificial Intelligence, now part of the School of Informatics at the University of Edinburgh). == Technology == Technical innovations involving Freddy were at the forefront of the 70s robotics field. Freddy was one of the earliest robots to integrate vision, manipulation and intelligent systems as well as having versatility in the system and ease in retraining and reprogramming for new tasks. The idea of moving the table instead of the arm simplified the construction. Freddy also used a method of recognising the parts visually by using graph matching on the detected features. The system used an innovative collection of high level procedures for programming the arm movements which could be reused for each new task. == Lighthill controversy == In the mid 1970s there was controversy about the utility of pursuing a general purpose robotics programme in both the USA and the UK. A BBC TV programme in 1973, referred to as the "Lighthill Debate", pitched James Lighthill, who had written a critical report for the science and engineering research funding agencies in the UK, against Donald Michie from the University of Edinburgh and John McCarthy from Stanford University. The Edinburgh Freddy II and Stanford/SRI Shakey robots were used to illustrate the state-of-the-art at the time in intelligent robotics systems. == Freddy I and II == Freddy Mark I (1969–1971) was an experimental prototype, with 3 degrees-of-freedom created by a rotating platform driven by a pair of independent wheels. The other main components were a video camera and bump sensors connected to a computer. The computer moved the platform so that the camera could see and then recognise the objects. Freddy II (1973–1976) was a 5 degrees of freedom manipulator with a large vertical 'hand' that could move up and down, rotate about the vertical axis and rotate objects held in its gripper around one horizontal axis. Two remaining translational degrees of freedom were generated by a work surface that moved beneath the gripper. The gripper was a two finger pinch gripper. A video camera was added as well as later a light stripe generator. The Freddy and Freddy II projects were initiated and overseen by Donald Michie. The mechanical hardware and analogue electronics were designed and built by Stephen Salter (who also pioneered renewable energy from waves (see Salter's Duck)), and the digital electronics and computer interfacing were designed by Harry Barrow and Gregan Crawford. The software was developed by a team led by Rod Burstall, Robin Popplestone and Harry Barrow which used the POP-2 programming language, one of the world's first functional programming languages. The computing hardware was an Elliot 4130 computer with 384KB (128K 24-bit words) RAM and a hard disk linked to a small Honeywell H316 computer with 16KB of RAM which directly performed sensing and control. Freddy was a versatile system which could be trained and reprogrammed to perform a new task in a day or two. The tasks included putting rings on pegs and assembling simple model toys consisting of wooden blocks of different shapes, a boat with a mast and a car with axles and wheels. Information about part locations was obtained using the video camera, and then matched to previously stored models of the parts. It was soon realised in the Freddy project that the 'move here, do this, move there' style of robot behavior programming (actuator or joint level programming) is tedious and also did not allow for the robot to cope with variations in part position, part shape and sensor noise. Consequently, the RAPT robot programming language was developed by Pat Ambler and Robin Popplestone, in which robot behavior was specified at the object level. This meant that robot goals were specified in terms of desired position relationships between the robot, objects and the scene, leaving the details of how to achieve the goals to the underlying software system. Although developed in the 1970s RAPT is still considerably more advanced than most commercial robot programming languages. The team of people who contributed to the project were leaders in the field at the time and included Pat Ambler, Harry Barrow, Ilona Bellos, Chris Brown, Rod Burstall, Gregan Crawford, Jim Howe, Donald Michie, Robin Popplestone, Stephen Salter, Austin Tate and Ken Turner. Also of interest in the project was the use of a structured-light 3D scanner to obtain the 3D shape and position of the parts being manipulated. The Freddy II robot is currently on display at the Royal Museum in Edinburgh, Scotland, with a segment of the assembly video shown in a continuous loop.
Stochastic parrot
In machine learning, the term stochastic parrot is a metaphor that frames large language models as systems that statistically mimic text without real understanding. The word "stochastic" – from the ancient Greek "στοχαστικός" (stokhastikos, 'based on guesswork') – is a term from probability theory meaning "randomly determined". The word "parrot" refers to parrots' ability to mimic human speech. The term was introduced in a 2021 paper on AI ethics titled "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots: Can Language Models Be Too Big? 🦜" and authored by Timnit Gebru, Emily M. Bender, Angelina McMillan-Major, and Margaret Mitchell. The paper outlined possible risks associated with large language models (LLMs). In December 2020, it was the subject of a workplace dispute between Gebru (then co-leader of Google's Ethical Artificial Intelligence Team) and Google, which had requested the retraction of the paper. The incident culminated in Gebru's controversial departure from the company. The paper was later presented at the 2021 ACM Conference, and the term "stochastic parrot" has seen widespread use in academic research concerning generative AI and LLMs. The term has been interpreted negatively as an insult towards AI. == Background == Timnit Gebru is an AI ethics researcher, Emily M. Bender is a linguist specializing in computational linguistics, and Margaret Mitchell is a computer scientist specializing in algorithmic bias. Gebru had joined Google in 2018, where she co-led a team on the ethics of artificial intelligence with Mitchell. In late 2020, the paper "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots: Can Language Models Be Too Big? 🦜" was co-written by Gebru and five other researchers, four of whom were Google employees. The paper argues that large language models (LLMs) present significant risks such as environmental and financial costs, inscrutability leading to unknown dangerous biases, and potential for deception as LLMs do not understand the concepts underlying what they learn. The paper states that LLMs are "stitching together sequences of linguistic forms ... observed in its vast training data, according to probabilistic information about how they combine, but without any reference to meaning." Therefore, they are labeled "stochastic parrots". === Dismissal of Gebru by Google === After the paper was submitted for consideration to the 2021 ACM Conference, Google requested that Gebru either retract the paper from the conference or remove the names of Google employees from it. Gebru refused to do so without further discussion, and emailed Google Research vice president Megan Kacholia that if the company could not explain the request for retraction and address other concerns regarding similar projects, she would plan to resign after a transition period, stating that they could "work on a last date". The following day, on December 2, 2020, Gebru received an email saying that Google was "accepting her resignation". Her abrupt firing sparked protests by Google employees and negative publicity for the company. == Usage == The phrase has been used by AI skeptics to signify that LLMs lack understanding of the meaning of their outputs. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, used the term shortly after the release of ChatGPT in December 2022, tweeting "i am a stochastic parrot, and so r u". The term was nominated as the 2023 AI-related Word of the Year by the American Dialect Society. == Debate == Some LLMs, such as ChatGPT, have become capable of interacting with users in convincingly human-like conversations. The development of these new systems has deepened the discussion of the extent to which LLMs understand or are simply "parroting". According to machine learning researchers Lindholm, Wahlström, Lindsten, and Schön, the term "stochastic parrot" highlights two vital limitations of LLMs: LLMs are limited by the data they are trained on and are simply stochastically repeating contents of datasets. Because they are just making up outputs based on training data, LLMs do not understand if they are saying something incorrect or inappropriate. Lindholm et al. noted that, with poor quality datasets and other limitations, a learning machine might produce results that are "dangerously wrong". === Subjective experience === In the mind of a human being, words and language correspond to things one has experienced. For LLMs, according to proponents of the theory, words correspond only to other words and patterns of usage fed into their training data. Proponents of the idea of stochastic parrots thus conclude that statements about LLMs are due to "the human tendency to attribute meaning to text", and claim this occurs despite the LLMs not actually understanding language. === Fine-tuning === Kelsey Piper argued that the claim that LLMs are stochastic parrots or mere "next-token predictors" focuses on pre-training, ignoring that modern LLMs are also fine-tuned to follow instructions and to prefer accurate answers. === Hallucinations and mistakes === The tendency of LLMs to pass off false information as fact is held as support. Called hallucinations or confabulations, LLMs will occasionally synthesize information that matches some pattern. LLMs may fail to distinguish fact and fiction, which leads to the claim that they can't connect words to a comprehension of the world, as humans do. Furthermore, LLMs may fail to decipher complex or ambiguous grammar cases that rely on understanding the meaning of language. For example: The wet newspaper that fell down off the table is my favorite newspaper. But now that my favorite newspaper fired the editor I might not like reading it anymore. Can I replace 'my favorite newspaper' by 'the wet newspaper that fell down off the table' in the second sentence? GPT-4, an LLM released in March 2023, responded yes, not understanding that the meaning of "newspaper" is different in these two contexts; it is first an object and second an institution. === Benchmarks and experiments === One argument against the hypothesis that LLMs are stochastic parrot is their results on benchmarks for reasoning, common sense and language understanding. In 2023, some LLMs have shown good results on many language understanding tests, such as the Super General Language Understanding Evaluation (SuperGLUE). GPT-4 scored in the >90th-percentile on the Uniform Bar Examination and achieved 93% accuracy on the MATH benchmark of high-school Olympiad problems, results that exceed rote pattern-matching expectations. Such tests, and the smoothness of many LLM responses, help as many as 51% of AI professionals believe they can truly understand language with enough data, according to a 2022 survey. === Expert rebuttals === Some AI researchers dispute the notion that LLMs merely "parrot" their training data. Geoffrey Hinton, a pioneering figure in neural networks, counters that the metaphor misunderstands the prerequisite for accurate language prediction. He argues that "to predict the next word accurately, you have to understand the sentence", a view he presented on 60 Minutes in 2023. From this perspective, understanding is not an alternative to statistical prediction, but rather an emergent property required to perform it effectively at scale. Hinton also uses logical puzzles to demonstrate that LLMs actually understand language. A 2024 Scientific American investigation described a closed Berkeley workshop where state-of-the-art models solved novel tier-4 mathematics problems and produced coherent proofs, indicating reasoning abilities beyond memorization. The GPT-4 Technical Report showed human-level results on professional and academic exams (e.g., the Uniform Bar Exam and USMLE), challenging the "parrot" characterization. Anthropic conducted mechanistic interpretability research on Claude, using attribution graphs to identify circuits. The research showed how the LLM processes information via chains of fuzzy logical inference, and indicated an ability to plan ahead. They found that Claude 3.5 Haiku "employs remarkably general abstractions", forms "internally generated plans for its future outputs" and "works backwards from its longer-term goals". They noted that "The mechanisms of the model can apparently only be faithfully described using an overwhelmingly large causal graph." They also found that the model includes "mechanisms that could underlie a simple form of metacognition", in that it "thinks about" the level of its own knowledge before reaching its answer. === Interpretability === Another line of evidence against the 'stochastic parrot' claim comes from mechanistic interpretability, a research field dedicated to reverse-engineering LLMs to understand their internal workings. Rather than only observing the model's input-output behavior, these techniques probe the model's internal activations, which can be used to determine if they contain structured representations of the world. The goal is to investigate whether LLMs are merely manipulating surface statistics or if t
Ballin' (Mustard and Roddy Ricch song)
"Ballin'" is a song by American record producer Mustard featuring American rapper Roddy Ricch. The track was released as the third single from Mustard's third studio album, Perfect Ten, on August 20, 2019, though it was available as early as the end of June 2019. The song and its accompanying video received acclaim from music critics, with Complex magazine naming it the Best Song of 2019. It peaked at number 11 on the Billboard Hot 100, marking Mustard's highest charting song in the US. The song received a nomination for Best Rap/Sung Performance at the 2020 Grammy Awards, making it the first time Ricch has been nominated for a Grammy and Mustard's first nomination as an artist. Later in 2019, the two released another collaboration, "High Fashion". == Background == Roddy Ricch revealed in an interview that the song was composed in late 2018, but Mustard wanted to keep it for his album, Perfect Ten, which he was still working on. The song was later included on the album, released in June 2019. Ricch said he knew the song was "hard enough" the first time he heard it, while Mustard proclaimed "this is going to be the one". == Composition and lyrics == "Ballin'" has a "rags to riches" theme. In its intro, the song samples girl group 702's 1997 top ten hit "Get It Together". The song features a "smooth, bouncy beat", with Roddy Ricch rapping about his come-up and ascent in the music industry. In the first verse, Ricch salutes fellow Los Angeles rapper, the late Nipsey Hussle and his girlfriend Lauren London: "I run these racks up with my queen like London and Nip". The line simultaneously references Ricch and Hussle's collaboration "Racks in the Middle", released earlier in 2019 as Hussle's last single before his death. Billboard's Heran Mamo noted that "in typical Hussle fashion", Roddy Ricch "narrates his life's hardships before delving into his newfound treasures". == Critical reception == The song was widely acclaimed by music critics. Charles Holmes of Rolling Stone magazine called it "a song of the year contender", while Complex and Billboard both named it as a "standout track" on the album. Pitchfork magazine included "Ballin'" in its list of The Best Rap Songs of 2019 and called it "the centerpiece of Mustard's underappreciated album Perfect Ten". Complex later named it the Best Song of 2019, calling it "a feel-good anthem so infectious you'll need antibiotics just to stop running it back". == Chart performance == "Ballin'" was at the time Mustard's highest charting song in the US, peaking at number 11 on the Billboard Hot 100. It was also Roddy Ricch's highest charting song, until he surpassed it a week later, with the release of his album track "The Box", which eventually reached number 1 on the chart. It reached number one on Billboard's Rhythmic Songs chart, becoming Mustard's second number one following "Pure Water" and Ricch's first number one. The song also topped the Rap Airplay chart. == Music video == The music video for the track was teased by Mustard on his Instagram page on September 29, 2019. The music video for the track was eventually released on October 2, 2019 to critical acclaim. The video features Mustard and Roddy Ricch driving a Lamborghini Aventador in Los Angeles, where they both are from, playing poker in a casino, and going to a strip club. This is contrasted with scenes in which Mustard and Roddy Ricch as children play cards with Monopoly money and playing with miniature toy Lamborghinis together, aspiring for wealth and luxury, representing how they went from "rags to riches". The video also pays tribute to rapper Nipsey Hussle, who had been killed a few months ago. == Live performances == On December 16, 2019, Roddy Ricch performed the song live, alongside an 8-piece orchestra, at Peppermint Club in Los Angeles for Audiomack's Trap Symphony series. Along with Mustard, he performed it at The Pop Out: Ken & Friends on June 19, 2024. == Other uses == The song can be heard on "Elyse's Skit", track 10 off Roddy Ricch's debut album Please Excuse Me for Being Antisocial. In the skit, which is an actual voicenote recording, the mother of a woman named Elyse sends her daughter a voicenote, with "Ballin'" playing in the background, while the mother proceeds to say "I can't get that damn song out my head", jokingly calling it "inappropriate music". Ricch called the skit "something natural". In 2023, AI covers of the song using models based on pop culture characters and real-world celebrities gained viral popularity. == Awards and nominations == 62nd Annual Grammy Awards == Charts == == Certifications ==
Synthetic data
Synthetic data are artificially generated data not produced by real-world events. Typically created using algorithms, synthetic data can be deployed to validate mathematical models and to train machine learning models. Data generated by a computer simulation can be seen as synthetic data. This encompasses most applications of physical modeling, such as music synthesizers or flight simulators. The output of such systems approximates the real thing, but is fully algorithmically generated. Synthetic data is used in a variety of fields as a filter for information that would otherwise compromise the confidentiality of particular aspects of the data. In many sensitive applications, datasets theoretically exist but cannot be released to the general public; synthetic data sidesteps the privacy issues that arise from using real consumer information without permission or compensation. == Usefulness == Synthetic data is generated to meet specific needs or certain conditions that may not be found in the original, real data. One of the hurdles in applying up-to-date machine learning approaches for complex scientific tasks is the scarcity of labeled data, a gap effectively bridged by the use of synthetic data, which closely replicates real experimental data. This can be useful when designing many systems, from simulations based on theoretical value, to database processors, etc. This helps detect and solve unexpected issues such as information processing limitations. Synthetic data are often generated to represent the authentic data and allows a baseline to be set. Another benefit of synthetic data is to protect the privacy and confidentiality of authentic data, while still allowing for use in testing systems. Computer security experts claim generated synthetic data "... enables us to create realistic behavior profiles for users and attackers. The data is used to train the fraud detection system itself, thus creating the necessary adaptation of the system to a specific environment." In defense and military contexts, synthetic data is seen as a potentially valuable tool to develop and improve complex AI systems, particularly in contexts where high-quality real-world data is scarce. At the same time, synthetic data together with the testing approach can give the ability to model real-world scenarios. == History == Scientific modelling of physical systems has a long history that runs concurrent with the history of physics. For example, research into synthesis of audio and voice can be traced back to the 1930s and before, driven forward by the developments of the telephone and audio recording technologies. Digitization gave rise to software synthesizers from the 1970s onwards. In the context of privacy-preserving statistical analysis, in 1993, the idea of original fully synthetic data was created by Donald Rubin. Rubin originally designed this to synthesize the Decennial Census long form responses for the short form households. He then released samples that did not include any actual long form records - in this he preserved anonymity of the household. Later that year, the idea of original partially synthetic data was created by Little. Little used this idea to synthesize the sensitive values on the public use file. A 1993 work fitted a statistical model to 60,000 MNIST digits, then it was used to generate over 1 million examples. Those were used to train a LeNet-4 to reach state of the art performance. In 1994, Stephen Fienberg introduced 'critical refinement', in which a parametric posterior predictive distribution (instead of a Bayes bootstrap) is used to do the sampling. Later, other important contributors to the development of synthetic data generation were Trivellore Raghunathan, Jerry Reiter, Donald Rubin, John M. Abowd, and Jim Woodcock. Collectively they came up with a solution for how to treat partially synthetic data with missing data. Similarly, they developed the technique of Sequential Regression Multivariate Imputation. == Calculations == Researchers test the framework on synthetic data, which is "the only source of ground truth on which they can objectively assess the performance of their algorithms". Synthetic data can be generated through the use of random lines, having different orientations and starting positions. Datasets can get fairly complicated. A more complicated dataset can be generated by using a synthesizer build. To create a synthesizer build, first use the original data to create a model or equation that fits the data the best. This model or equation will be called a synthesizer build. This build can be used to generate more data. Constructing a synthesizer build involves constructing a statistical model. In a linear regression line example, the original data can be plotted, and a best fit linear line can be created from the data. This line is a synthesizer created from the original data. The next step will be generating more synthetic data from the synthesizer build or from this linear line equation. In this way, the new data can be used for studies and research, and it protects the confidentiality of the original data. David Jensen from the Knowledge Discovery Laboratory explains how to generate synthetic data: "Researchers frequently need to explore the effects of certain data characteristics on their data model." To help construct datasets exhibiting specific properties, such as auto-correlation or degree disparity, proximity can generate synthetic data having one of several types of graph structure: random graphs that are generated by some random process; lattice graphs having a ring structure; lattice graphs having a grid structure, etc. In all cases, the data generation process follows the same process: Generate the empty graph structure. Generate attribute values based on user-supplied prior probabilities. Since the attribute values of one object may depend on the attribute values of related objects, the attribute generation process assigns values collectively. == Applications == === Fraud detection and confidentiality systems === Testing and training fraud detection and confidentiality systems are devised using synthetic data. Specific algorithms and generators are designed to create realistic data, which then assists in teaching a system how to react to certain situations or criteria. For example, intrusion detection software is tested using synthetic data. This data is a representation of the authentic data and may include intrusion instances that are not found in the authentic data. The synthetic data allows the software to recognize these situations and react accordingly. If synthetic data was not used, the software would only be trained to react to the situations provided by the authentic data and it may not recognize another type of intrusion. === Scientific research === Researchers doing clinical trials or any other research may generate synthetic data to aid in creating a baseline for future studies and testing. Real data can contain information that researchers may not want released, so synthetic data is sometimes used to protect the privacy and confidentiality of a dataset. Using synthetic data reduces confidentiality and privacy issues since it holds no personal information and cannot be traced back to any individual. Beyond privacy protection, synthetic data is also being explored for methodological innovation in drug development. For instance, synthetic data may be used to construct synthetic control arms as an alternative to conventional external control arms based on real-world data (RWD) or randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Collectively, regulatory agencies such as the FDA and EMA appear to be at various stages of recognizing and integrating AI-generated synthetic data into their methodologies. While there is growing consensus on the potential of such data to support model development and the broader lifecycle of medicinal products, to date no drug or medical device has been approved using solely or predominantly synthetic data—particularly not as a comparator arm generated entirely via data-driven algorithms. The quality and statistical handling of synthetic data are expected to become more prominent in future regulatory discussions, particularly in contexts such as predictive modeling (e.g., digital twins), where innovative approaches have already been referenced. === Machine learning === Synthetic data is increasingly being used for machine learning applications: a model is trained on a synthetically generated dataset with the intention of transfer learning to real data. Efforts have been made to enable more data science experiments via the construction of general-purpose synthetic data generators, such as the Synthetic Data Vault. In general, synthetic data has several natural advantages: once the synthetic environment is ready, it is fast and cheap to produce as much data as needed; synthetic data can have perfectly accurate labels, including labeling that may be very expensive or impo
Quality of Data
Quality of Data (QoD) is a designation coined by L. Veiga, that specifies and describes the required Quality of Service of a distributed storage system from the Consistency point of view of its data. It can be used to support big data management frameworks, Workflow management, and HPC systems (mainly for data replication and consistency). It takes into account data semantics, namely the Time interval of data freshness, the Sequence of tolerable number of outstanding versions of the data read before ore refresh, and the Value divergence allowed before displaying it. Initially it was based on a model from an existing research work regarding vector-field Consistency, awarded the best-paper prize in the ACM/IFIP/Usenix Middleware Conference 2007 and later enhanced for increased scalability and fault-tolerance. This consistency model has been successfully applied and proven in big data key/value store Apache HBase, initially designed as a middleware module seating between clusters from separate data centres. The HBase-QoD coupling minimises bandwidth usage and optimises resources allocation during replication achieving the desired consistency level at a more fine-grained level. QoD is defined by the three-dimensions of vector k=(θ,σ,ν), but with a broader view of the issue, applicable also to large-scale data management techniques in regards to their timely delivery. == Other descriptions == Quality of Data should not be confused with other definitions for data quality such as completeness, validity, and accuracy.
Mathematical morphology
Mathematical morphology (MM) is a theory and technique for analyzing and processing geometrical structures. It's based on set theory, lattice theory, topology, and random functions. MM is most commonly applied to digital images, but it can be employed as well on graphs, surface meshes, solids, and many other spatial structures. Topological and geometrical continuous-space concepts such as size, shape, convexity, connectivity, and geodesic distance, were introduced by MM on both continuous and discrete spaces. MM is also the foundation of morphological image processing, which consists of a set of operators that transform images according to the above characterizations. The basic morphological operators are erosion, dilation, opening and closing. MM was originally developed for binary images, and was later extended to grayscale functions and images. The subsequent generalization to complete lattices is widely accepted today as MM's theoretical foundation. == History == Mathematical Morphology was developed in 1964 by the collaborative work of Georges Matheron and Jean Serra, at the École des Mines de Paris, France. Matheron supervised the PhD thesis of Serra, devoted to the quantification of mineral characteristics from thin cross sections, and this work resulted in a novel practical approach, as well as theoretical advancements in integral geometry and topology. In 1968, the Centre de Morphologie Mathématique was founded by the École des Mines de Paris in Fontainebleau, France, led by Matheron and Serra. During the rest of the 1960s and most of the 1970s, MM dealt essentially with binary images, treated as sets, and generated a large number of binary operators and techniques: Hit-or-miss transform, dilation, erosion, opening, closing, granulometry, thinning, skeletonization, ultimate erosion, conditional bisector, and others. A random approach was also developed, based on novel image models. Most of the work in that period was developed in Fontainebleau. From the mid-1970s to mid-1980s, MM was generalized to grayscale functions and images as well. Besides extending the main concepts (such as dilation, erosion, etc.) to functions, this generalization yielded new operators, such as morphological gradients, top-hat transform and the Watershed (MM's main segmentation approach). In the 1980s and 1990s, MM gained a wider recognition, as research centers in several countries began to adopt and investigate the method. MM started to be applied to a large number of imaging problems and applications, especially in the field of non-linear filtering of noisy images. In 1986, Serra further generalized MM, this time to a theoretical framework based on complete lattices. This generalization brought flexibility to the theory, enabling its application to a much larger number of structures, including color images, video, graphs, meshes, etc. At the same time, Matheron and Serra also formulated a theory for morphological filtering, based on the new lattice framework. The 1990s and 2000s also saw further theoretical advancements, including the concepts of connections and levelings. In 1993, the first International Symposium on Mathematical Morphology (ISMM) took place in Barcelona, Spain. Since then, ISMMs are organized every 2–3 years: Fontainebleau, France (1994); Atlanta, USA (1996); Amsterdam, Netherlands (1998); Palo Alto, CA, USA (2000); Sydney, Australia (2002); Paris, France (2005); Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (2007); Groningen, Netherlands (2009); Intra (Verbania), Italy (2011); Uppsala, Sweden (2013); Reykjavík, Iceland (2015); Fontainebleau, France (2017); and Saarbrücken, Germany (2019). =
Dependency network (graphical model)
Dependency networks (DNs) are graphical models, similar to Markov networks, wherein each vertex (node) corresponds to a random variable and each edge captures dependencies among variables. Unlike Bayesian networks, DNs may contain cycles. Each node is associated to a conditional probability table, which determines the realization of the random variable given its parents. == Markov blanket == In a Bayesian network, the Markov blanket of a node is the set of parents and children of that node, together with the children's parents. The values of the parents and children of a node evidently give information about that node. However, its children's parents also have to be included in the Markov blanket, because they can be used to explain away the node in question. In a Markov random field, the Markov blanket for a node is simply its adjacent (or neighboring) nodes. In a dependency network, the Markov blanket for a node is simply the set of its parents. == Dependency network versus Bayesian networks == Dependency networks have advantages and disadvantages with respect to Bayesian networks. In particular, they are easier to parameterize from data, as there are efficient algorithms for learning both the structure and probabilities of a dependency network from data. Such algorithms are not available for Bayesian networks, for which the problem of determining the optimal structure is NP-hard. Nonetheless, a dependency network may be more difficult to construct using a knowledge-based approach driven by expert-knowledge. == Dependency networks versus Markov networks == Consistent dependency networks and Markov networks have the same representational power. Nonetheless, it is possible to construct non-consistent dependency networks, i.e., dependency networks for which there is no compatible valid joint probability distribution. Markov networks, in contrast, are always consistent. == Definition == A consistent dependency network for a set of random variables X = ( X 1 , … , X n ) {\textstyle \mathbf {X} =(X_{1},\ldots ,X_{n})} with joint distribution p ( x ) {\displaystyle p(\mathbf {x} )} is a pair ( G , P ) {\displaystyle (G,P)} where G {\displaystyle G} is a cyclic directed graph, where each of its nodes corresponds to a variable in X {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} } , and P {\displaystyle P} is a set of conditional probability distributions. The parents of node X i {\displaystyle X_{i}} , denoted P a i {\displaystyle \mathbf {Pa_{i}} } , correspond to those variables P a i ⊆ ( X 1 , … , X i − 1 , X i + 1 , … , X n ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {Pa_{i}} \subseteq (X_{1},\ldots ,X_{i-1},X_{i+1},\ldots ,X_{n})} that satisfy the following independence relationships p ( x i ∣ p a i ) = p ( x i ∣ x 1 , … , x i − 1 , x i + 1 , … , x n ) = p ( x i ∣ x − x i ) . {\displaystyle p(x_{i}\mid \mathbf {pa_{i}} )=p(x_{i}\mid x_{1},\ldots ,x_{i-1},x_{i+1},\ldots ,x_{n})=p(x_{i}\mid \mathbf {x} -{x_{i}}).} The dependency network is consistent in the sense that each local distribution can be obtained from the joint distribution p ( x ) {\displaystyle p(\mathbf {x} )} . Dependency networks learned using large data sets with large sample sizes will almost always be consistent. A non-consistent network is a network for which there is no joint probability distribution compatible with the pair ( G , P ) {\displaystyle (G,P)} . In that case, there is no joint probability distribution that satisfies the independence relationships subsumed by that pair. == Structure and parameters learning == Two important tasks in a dependency network are to learn its structure and probabilities from data. Essentially, the learning algorithm consists of independently performing a probabilistic regression or classification for each variable in the domain. It comes from observation that the local distribution for variable X i {\displaystyle X_{i}} in a dependency network is the conditional distribution p ( x i | x − x i ) {\displaystyle p(x_{i}|\mathbf {x} -{x_{i}})} , which can be estimated by any number of classification or regression techniques, such as methods using a probabilistic decision tree, a neural network or a probabilistic support-vector machine. Hence, for each variable X i {\displaystyle X_{i}} in domain X {\displaystyle X} , we independently estimate its local distribution from data using a classification algorithm, even though it is a distinct method for each variable. Here, we will briefly show how probabilistic decision trees are used to estimate the local distributions. For each variable X i {\displaystyle X_{i}} in X {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} } , a probabilistic decision tree is learned where X i {\displaystyle X_{i}} is the target variable and X − X i {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} -X_{i}} are the input variables. To learn a decision tree structure for X i {\displaystyle X_{i}} , the search algorithm begins with a singleton root node without children. Then, each leaf node in the tree is replaced with a binary split on some variable X j {\displaystyle X_{j}} in X − X i {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} -X_{i}} , until no more replacements increase the score of the tree. == Probabilistic Inference == A probabilistic inference is the task in which we wish to answer probabilistic queries of the form p ( y ∣ z ) {\displaystyle p(\mathbf {y\mid z} )} , given a graphical model for X {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} } , where Y {\displaystyle \mathbf {Y} } (the 'target' variables) Z {\displaystyle \mathbf {Z} } (the 'input' variables) are disjoint subsets of X {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} } . One of the alternatives for performing probabilistic inference is using Gibbs sampling. A naive approach for this uses an ordered Gibbs sampler, an important difficulty of which is that if either p ( y ∣ z ) {\displaystyle p(\mathbf {y\mid z} )} or p ( z ) {\displaystyle p(\mathbf {z} )} is small, then many iterations are required for an accurate probability estimate. Another approach for estimating p ( y ∣ z ) {\displaystyle p(\mathbf {y\mid z} )} when p ( z ) {\displaystyle p(\mathbf {z} )} is small is to use modified ordered Gibbs sampler, where Z = z {\displaystyle \mathbf {Z=z} } is fixed during Gibbs sampling. It may also happen that y {\displaystyle \mathbf {y} } is rare, e.g. when Y {\displaystyle \mathbf {Y} } has many variables. So, the law of total probability along with the independencies encoded in a dependency network can be used to decompose the inference task into a set of inference tasks on single variables. This approach comes with the advantage that some terms may be obtained by direct lookup, thereby avoiding some Gibbs sampling. You can see below an algorithm that can be used for obtain p ( y | z ) {\displaystyle p(\mathbf {y|z} )} for a particular instance of y ∈ Y {\displaystyle \mathbf {y} \in \mathbf {Y} } and z ∈ Z {\displaystyle \mathbf {z} \in \mathbf {Z} } , where Y {\displaystyle \mathbf {Y} } and Z {\displaystyle \mathbf {Z} } are disjoint subsets. Algorithm 1: U := Y {\displaystyle \mathbf {U:=Y} } ( the unprocessed variables ) P := Z {\displaystyle \mathbf {P:=Z} } ( the processed and conditioning variables ) p := z {\displaystyle \mathbf {p:=z} } ( the values for P {\displaystyle \mathbf {P} } ) While U ≠ ∅ {\displaystyle \mathbf {U} \neq \emptyset } : Choose X i ∈ U {\displaystyle X_{i}\in \mathbf {U} } such that X i {\displaystyle X_{i}} has no more parents in U {\displaystyle U} than any variable in U {\displaystyle U} If all the parents of X {\displaystyle X} are in P {\displaystyle \mathbf {P} } p ( x i | p ) := p ( x i | p a i ) {\displaystyle p(x_{i}|\mathbf {p} ):=p(x_{i}|\mathbf {pa_{i}} )} Else Use a modified ordered Gibbs sampler to determine p ( x i | p ) {\displaystyle p(x_{i}|\mathbf {p} )} U := U − X i {\displaystyle \mathbf {U:=U} -X_{i}} P := P + X i {\displaystyle \mathbf {P:=P} +X_{i}} p := p + x i {\displaystyle \mathbf {p:=p} +x_{i}} Returns the product of the conditionals p ( x i | p ) {\displaystyle p(x_{i}|\mathbf {p} )} == Applications == In addition to the applications to probabilistic inference, the following applications are in the category of Collaborative Filtering (CF), which is the task of predicting preferences. Dependency networks are a natural model class on which to base CF predictions, once an algorithm for this task only needs estimation of p ( x i = 1 | x − x i = 0 ) {\displaystyle p(x_{i}=1|\mathbf {x} -{x_{i}}=0)} to produce recommendations. In particular, these estimates may be obtained by a direct lookup in a dependency network. Predicting what movies a person will like based on his or her ratings of movies seen; Predicting what web pages a person will access based on his or her history on the site; Predicting what news stories a person is interested in based on other stories he or she read; Predicting what product a person will buy based on products he or she has already purchased and/or dropped into his or her shopping basket. Another class of useful applications for dependency networks is related to data visualization, that is