Existential risk from artificial intelligence

Existential risk from artificial intelligence, or AI x-risk, refers to the idea that substantial progress in artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI) could lead to human extinction or an irreversible global catastrophe. One argument for the validity of this concern and the importance of this risk references how human beings dominate other species because the human brain possesses distinctive capabilities other animals lack. If AI were to surpass human intelligence and become superintelligent, it might become uncontrollable. Just as the fate of the mountain gorilla depends on human goodwill, the fate of humanity could depend on the actions of a future machine superintelligence. Experts disagree on whether artificial general intelligence (AGI) can achieve the capabilities needed for human extinction. Debates center on AGI's technical feasibility, the speed of self-improvement, and the effectiveness of alignment strategies. Concerns about superintelligence have been voiced by researchers including Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio, Demis Hassabis, and Alan Turing, and AI company CEOs such as Dario Amodei (Anthropic), Sam Altman (OpenAI), and Elon Musk (xAI). In 2022, a survey of AI researchers with a 17% response rate found that the majority believed there is a 10 percent or greater chance that human inability to control AI will cause an existential catastrophe. In 2023, hundreds of AI experts and other notable figures signed a statement declaring, "Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war". Following increased concern over AI risks, government leaders such as United Kingdom prime minister Rishi Sunak and United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called for an increased focus on global AI regulation. In 2025, hundreds of public figures including AI experts, five Nobel Prize laureates, and former senior US national security officials such as Michael Mullen and Susan Rice signed a statement calling for a ban on the development of superintelligence. Two sources of concern stem from the problems of AI control and alignment. Controlling a superintelligent machine or instilling it with human-compatible values may be difficult. Many researchers believe that a superintelligent machine would likely resist attempts to disable it or change its goals as that would prevent it from accomplishing its present goals. It would be extremely challenging to align a superintelligence with the full breadth of significant human values and constraints. In contrast, skeptics such as computer scientist Yann LeCun argue that superintelligent machines will have no desire for self-preservation. A June 2025 study showed that in some circumstances, models may break laws and disobey direct commands to prevent shutdown or replacement, even at the cost of human lives. Researchers warn that an "intelligence explosion"—a rapid, recursive cycle of AI self-improvement—could outpace human oversight and infrastructure, leaving no opportunity to implement safety measures. In this scenario, an AI more intelligent than its creators would recursively improve itself at an exponentially increasing rate, too quickly for its handlers or society at large to control. Empirically, examples like AlphaZero, which taught itself to play Go and quickly surpassed human ability, show that domain-specific AI systems can sometimes progress from subhuman to superhuman ability very quickly, although such machine learning systems do not recursively improve their fundamental architecture. == History == One of the earliest authors to express serious concern that highly advanced machines might pose existential risks to humanity was the novelist Samuel Butler, who wrote in his 1863 essay Darwin among the Machines: The upshot is simply a question of time, but that the time will come when the machines will hold the real supremacy over the world and its inhabitants is what no person of a truly philosophic mind can for a moment question. In 1951, foundational computer scientist Alan Turing wrote the article "Intelligent Machinery, A Heretical Theory", in which he proposed that artificial general intelligences would likely "take control" of the world as they became more intelligent than human beings: Let us now assume, for the sake of argument, that [intelligent] machines are a genuine possibility, and look at the consequences of constructing them... There would be no question of the machines dying, and they would be able to converse with each other to sharpen their wits. At some stage therefore we should have to expect the machines to take control, in the way that is mentioned in Samuel Butler's Erewhon. In 1965, I. J. Good originated the concept now known as an "intelligence explosion" and said the risks were underappreciated: Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion', and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. It is curious that this point is made so seldom outside of science fiction. It is sometimes worthwhile to take science fiction seriously. Scholars such as Marvin Minsky and I. J. Good himself occasionally expressed concern that a superintelligence could seize control, but issued no call to action. In 2000, computer scientist and Sun co-founder Bill Joy penned an influential essay, "Why The Future Doesn't Need Us", identifying superintelligent robots as a high-tech danger to human survival, alongside nanotechnology and engineered bioplagues. Nick Bostrom published Superintelligence in 2014, which presented his arguments that superintelligence poses an existential threat. By 2015, public figures such as physicists Stephen Hawking and Nobel laureate Frank Wilczek, computer scientists Stuart J. Russell and Roman Yampolskiy, and entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Bill Gates were expressing concern about the risks of superintelligence. Also in 2015, the Open Letter on Artificial Intelligence highlighted the "great potential of AI" and encouraged more research on how to make it robust and beneficial. In April 2016, the journal Nature warned: "Machines and robots that outperform humans across the board could self-improve beyond our control—and their interests might not align with ours". In 2020, Brian Christian published The Alignment Problem, which details the history of progress on AI alignment up to that time. In March 2023, key figures in AI, such as Musk, signed a letter from the Future of Life Institute calling a halt to advanced AI training until it could be properly regulated. In May 2023, the Center for AI Safety released a statement signed by numerous experts in AI safety and the AI existential risk that read: Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war. A 2025 open letter by the Future of Life Institute, whose signers include five Nobel Prize laureates, reads: We call for a prohibition on the development of superintelligence, not lifted before there is broad scientific consensus that it will be done safely and controllably, and strong public buy-in. == Potential AI capabilities == === General Intelligence === Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is typically defined as a system that performs at least as well as humans in most or all intellectual tasks. A 2022 survey of AI researchers found that 90% of respondents expected AGI would be achieved in the next 100 years, and half expected the same by 2061. In May 2023, some researchers dismissed existential risks from AGI as "science fiction" based on their high confidence that AGI would not be created anytime soon. But in August 2023, a survey of 2,778 AI researchers found that most believed that AGI would be achieved by 2040. Breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) have led some researchers to reassess their expectations. Notably, Geoffrey Hinton said in 2023 that he recently changed his estimate from "20 to 50 years before we have general purpose A.I." to "20 years or less". === Superintelligence === In contrast with AGI, Bostrom defines a superintelligence as "any intellect that greatly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest", including scientific creativity, strategic planning, and social skills. He argues that a superintelligence can outmaneuver humans anytime its goals conflict with humans'. It may choose to hide its true intent until humanity cannot stop it. Bostrom writes that in order to be safe for

Skipper (computer software)

Skipper is a visualization tool and code/schema generator for PHP ORM frameworks like Doctrine2, Doctrine, Propel, and CakePHP, which are used to create database abstraction layer. Skipper is developed by Czech company Inventic, s.r.o. based in Brno, and was known as ORM Designer prior to rebranding in 2014. == Overview == Generates visual model from the schema definition files Repetitive import/export of schema definitions in supported formats (XML, YML, PHP annotations) Schema definition files are automatically generated from the visual model Visual representation uses ER diagram extended by concepts of inheritance and many-to-many Supports customization using .xml configuration files and JavaScript Does not support direct connections to the database Crude and simplistic visual representation and menus == Architecture == Skipper was built on the Qt framework. Import/export of the schema definitions uses XSL transformations powered by LibXslt library. Imported source files are first converted to XML format: no conversion for XML, simple conversion for YML, creating the Abstract Syntax Tree and its subsequent conversion to XML for PHP annotations. The import/export scripts are configured in JavaScript and can be freely customized. == Supported ORM frameworks == Frameworks supported for visual model and schema files generation: Doctrine2 Doctrine CakePHP == History == Skipper was created as an internal tool for the web applications developed by Inventic. It was first published as a commercial tool under the name ORM Designer in 2009. Application was reworked and optimized in January 2013, and released as ORM Designer 2. In May 2013 ORM Designer became part of the South Moravian Innovation Center Incubator program (support program for innovative technological startups). In June 2014, ORM Designer version 3 was released and rebranded under the name of Skipper

Apache Giraph

Apache Giraph is an Apache project to perform graph processing on big data. Giraph utilizes Apache Hadoop's MapReduce implementation to process graphs. Facebook used Giraph with some performance improvements to analyze one trillion edges using 200 machines in 4 minutes. Giraph is based on a paper published by Google about its own graph processing system called Pregel. It can be compared to other Big Graph processing libraries such as Cassovary. As of September 2023, it is no longer actively developed.

Sparse PCA

Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA or sparse PCA) is a technique used in statistical analysis and, in particular, in the analysis of multivariate data sets. It extends the classic method of principal component analysis (PCA) for the reduction of dimensionality of data by introducing sparsity structures to the input variables. A particular disadvantage of ordinary PCA is that the principal components are usually linear combinations of all input variables. SPCA overcomes this disadvantage by finding components that are linear combinations of just a few input variables (SPCs). This means that some of the coefficients of the linear combinations defining the SPCs, called loadings, are equal to zero. The number of nonzero loadings is called the cardinality of the SPC. == Mathematical formulation == Consider a data matrix, X {\displaystyle X} , where each of the p {\displaystyle p} columns represent an input variable, and each of the n {\displaystyle n} rows represents an independent sample from data population. One assumes each column of X {\displaystyle X} has mean zero, otherwise one can subtract column-wise mean from each element of X {\displaystyle X} . Let Σ = 1 n − 1 X ⊤ X {\displaystyle \Sigma ={\frac {1}{n-1}}X^{\top }X} be the empirical covariance matrix of X {\displaystyle X} , which has dimension p × p {\displaystyle p\times p} . Given an integer k {\displaystyle k} with 1 ≤ k ≤ p {\displaystyle 1\leq k\leq p} , the sparse PCA problem can be formulated as maximizing the variance along a direction represented by vector v ∈ R p {\displaystyle v\in \mathbb {R} ^{p}} while constraining its cardinality: max v T Σ v subject to ‖ v ‖ 2 = 1 ‖ v ‖ 0 ≤ k . {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}\max \quad &v^{T}\Sigma v\\{\text{subject to}}\quad &\left\Vert v\right\Vert _{2}=1\\&\left\Vert v\right\Vert _{0}\leq k.\end{aligned}}} Eq. 1 The first constraint specifies that v is a unit vector. In the second constraint, ‖ v ‖ 0 {\displaystyle \left\Vert v\right\Vert _{0}} represents the ℓ 0 {\displaystyle \ell _{0}} pseudo-norm of v, which is defined as the number of its non-zero components. So the second constraint specifies that the number of non-zero components in v is less than or equal to k, which is typically an integer that is much smaller than dimension p. The optimal value of Eq. 1 is known as the k-sparse largest eigenvalue. If one takes k=p, the problem reduces to the ordinary PCA, and the optimal value becomes the largest eigenvalue of covariance matrix Σ. After finding the optimal solution v, one deflates Σ to obtain a new matrix Σ 1 = Σ − ( v T Σ v ) v v T , {\displaystyle \Sigma _{1}=\Sigma -(v^{T}\Sigma v)vv^{T},} and iterate this process to obtain further principal components. However, unlike PCA, sparse PCA cannot guarantee that different principal components are orthogonal. In order to achieve orthogonality, additional constraints must be enforced. The following equivalent definition is in matrix form. Let V {\displaystyle V} be a p×p symmetric matrix, one can rewrite the sparse PCA problem as max T r ( Σ V ) subject to T r ( V ) = 1 ‖ V ‖ 0 ≤ k 2 R a n k ( V ) = 1 , V ⪰ 0. {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}\max \quad &Tr(\Sigma V)\\{\text{subject to}}\quad &Tr(V)=1\\&\Vert V\Vert _{0}\leq k^{2}\\&Rank(V)=1,V\succeq 0.\end{aligned}}} Eq. 2 Tr is the matrix trace, and ‖ V ‖ 0 {\displaystyle \Vert V\Vert _{0}} represents the non-zero elements in matrix V. The last line specifies that V has matrix rank one and is positive semidefinite. The last line means that one has V = v v T {\displaystyle V=vv^{T}} , so Eq. 2 is equivalent to Eq. 1. Moreover, the rank constraint in this formulation is actually redundant, and therefore sparse PCA can be cast as the following mixed-integer semidefinite program max T r ( Σ V ) subject to T r ( V ) = 1 | V i , i | ≤ z i , ∀ i ∈ { 1 , . . . , p } , | V i , j | ≤ 1 2 z i , ∀ i , j ∈ { 1 , . . . , p } : i ≠ j , V ⪰ 0 , z ∈ { 0 , 1 } p , ∑ i z i ≤ k {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}\max \quad &Tr(\Sigma V)\\{\text{subject to}}\quad &Tr(V)=1\\&\vert V_{i,i}\vert \leq z_{i},\forall i\in \{1,...,p\},\vert V_{i,j}\vert \leq {\frac {1}{2}}z_{i},\forall i,j\in \{1,...,p\}:i\neq j,\\&V\succeq 0,z\in \{0,1\}^{p},\sum _{i}z_{i}\leq k\end{aligned}}} Eq. 3 Because of the cardinality constraint, the maximization problem is hard to solve exactly, especially when dimension p is high. In fact, the sparse PCA problem in Eq. 1 is NP-hard in the strong sense. == Computational considerations == As most sparse problems, variable selection in SPCA is a computationally intractable non-convex NP-hard problem, therefore greedy sub-optimal algorithms are often employed to find solutions. Note also that SPCA introduces hyperparameters quantifying in what capacity large parameter values are penalized. These might need tuning to achieve satisfactory performance, thereby adding to the total computational cost. == Algorithms for SPCA == Several alternative approaches (of Eq. 1) have been proposed, including a regression framework, a penalized matrix decomposition framework, a convex relaxation/semidefinite programming framework, a generalized power method framework an alternating maximization framework forward-backward greedy search and exact methods using branch-and-bound techniques, a certifiably optimal branch-and-bound approach Bayesian formulation framework. A certifiably optimal mixed-integer semidefinite branch-and-cut approach The methodological and theoretical developments of Sparse PCA as well as its applications in scientific studies are recently reviewed in a survey paper. === Notes on Semidefinite Programming Relaxation === It has been proposed that sparse PCA can be approximated by semidefinite programming (SDP). If one drops the rank constraint and relaxes the cardinality constraint by a 1-norm convex constraint, one gets a semidefinite programming relaxation, which can be solved efficiently in polynomial time: max T r ( Σ V ) subject to T r ( V ) = 1 1 T | V | 1 ≤ k V ⪰ 0. {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}\max \quad &Tr(\Sigma V)\\{\text{subject to}}\quad &Tr(V)=1\\&\mathbf {1} ^{T}|V|\mathbf {1} \leq k\\&V\succeq 0.\end{aligned}}} Eq. 3 In the second constraint, 1 {\displaystyle \mathbf {1} } is a p×1 vector of ones, and |V| is the matrix whose elements are the absolute values of the elements of V. The optimal solution V {\displaystyle V} to the relaxed problem Eq. 3 is not guaranteed to have rank one. In that case, V {\displaystyle V} can be truncated to retain only the dominant eigenvector. While the semidefinite program does not scale beyond n=300 covariates, it has been shown that a second-order cone relaxation of the semidefinite relaxation is almost as tight and successfully solves problems with n=1000s of covariates == Applications == === Financial Data Analysis === Suppose ordinary PCA is applied to a dataset where each input variable represents a different asset, it may generate principal components that are weighted combination of all the assets. In contrast, sparse PCA would produce principal components that are weighted combination of only a few input assets, so one can easily interpret its meaning. Furthermore, if one uses a trading strategy based on these principal components, fewer assets imply less transaction costs. === Biology === Consider a dataset where each input variable corresponds to a specific gene. Sparse PCA can produce a principal component that involves only a few genes, so researchers can focus on these specific genes for further analysis. === High-dimensional Hypothesis Testing === Contemporary datasets often have the number of input variables ( p {\displaystyle p} ) comparable with or even much larger than the number of samples ( n {\displaystyle n} ). It has been shown that if p / n {\displaystyle p/n} does not converge to zero, the classical PCA is not consistent. In other words, if we let k = p {\displaystyle k=p} in Eq. 1, then the optimal value does not converge to the largest eigenvalue of data population when the sample size n → ∞ {\displaystyle n\rightarrow \infty } , and the optimal solution does not converge to the direction of maximum variance. But sparse PCA can retain consistency even if p ≫ n . {\displaystyle p\gg n.} The k-sparse largest eigenvalue (the optimal value of Eq. 1) can be used to discriminate an isometric model, where every direction has the same variance, from a spiked covariance model in high-dimensional setting. Consider a hypothesis test where the null hypothesis specifies that data X {\displaystyle X} are generated from a multivariate normal distribution with mean 0 and covariance equal to an identity matrix, and the alternative hypothesis specifies that data X {\displaystyle X} is generated from a spiked model with signal strength θ {\displaystyle \theta } : H 0 : X ∼ N ( 0 , I p ) , H 1 : X ∼ N ( 0 , I p + θ v v T ) , {\displaystyle H_{0}:X\sim N(0,I_{p}),\quad H_{1}:X\sim N(0,I_{p}+\theta vv^{T}),} where v ∈ R p {\displaystyle v\in \mathbb {R} ^{p}

Locality-sensitive hashing

In computer science, locality-sensitive hashing (LSH) is a fuzzy hashing technique that hashes similar input items into the same "buckets" with high probability. The number of buckets is much smaller than the universe of possible input items. Since similar items end up in the same buckets, this technique can be used for data clustering and nearest neighbor search. It differs from conventional hashing techniques in that hash collisions are maximized, not minimized. Alternatively, the technique can be seen as a way to reduce the dimensionality of high-dimensional data; high-dimensional input items can be reduced to low-dimensional versions while preserving relative distances between items. Hashing-based approximate nearest-neighbor search algorithms generally use one of two main categories of hashing methods: either data-independent methods, such as locality-sensitive hashing (LSH); or data-dependent methods, such as locality-preserving hashing (LPH). Locality-preserving hashing was initially devised as a way to facilitate data pipelining in implementations of massively parallel algorithms that use randomized routing and universal hashing to reduce memory contention and network congestion. == Definitions == A finite family F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} of functions h : M → S {\displaystyle h\colon M\to S} is defined to be an LSH family for a metric space M = ( M , d ) {\displaystyle {\mathcal {M}}=(M,d)} , a threshold r > 0 {\displaystyle r>0} , an approximation factor c > 1 {\displaystyle c>1} , and probabilities p 1 > p 2 {\displaystyle p_{1}>p_{2}} if it satisfies the following condition. For any two points a , b ∈ M {\displaystyle a,b\in M} and a hash function h {\displaystyle h} chosen uniformly at random from F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} : If d ( a , b ) ≤ r {\displaystyle d(a,b)\leq r} , then h ( a ) = h ( b ) {\displaystyle h(a)=h(b)} (i.e., a and b collide) with probability at least p 1 {\displaystyle p_{1}} , If d ( a , b ) ≥ c r {\displaystyle d(a,b)\geq cr} , then h ( a ) = h ( b ) {\displaystyle h(a)=h(b)} with probability at most p 2 {\displaystyle p_{2}} . Such a family F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} is called ( r , c r , p 1 , p 2 ) {\displaystyle (r,cr,p_{1},p_{2})} -sensitive. === LSH with respect to a similarity measure === Alternatively it is possible to define an LSH family on a universe of items U endowed with a similarity function ϕ : U × U → [ 0 , 1 ] {\displaystyle \phi \colon U\times U\to [0,1]} . In this setting, a LSH scheme is a family of hash functions H coupled with a probability distribution D over H such that a function h ∈ H {\displaystyle h\in H} chosen according to D satisfies P r [ h ( a ) = h ( b ) ] = ϕ ( a , b ) {\displaystyle Pr[h(a)=h(b)]=\phi (a,b)} for each a , b ∈ U {\displaystyle a,b\in U} . === Amplification === Given a ( d 1 , d 2 , p 1 , p 2 ) {\displaystyle (d_{1},d_{2},p_{1},p_{2})} -sensitive family F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} , we can construct new families G {\displaystyle {\mathcal {G}}} by either the AND-construction or OR-construction of F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} . To create an AND-construction, we define a new family G {\displaystyle {\mathcal {G}}} of hash functions g, where each function g is constructed from k random functions h 1 , … , h k {\displaystyle h_{1},\ldots ,h_{k}} from F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} . We then say that for a hash function g ∈ G {\displaystyle g\in {\mathcal {G}}} , g ( x ) = g ( y ) {\displaystyle g(x)=g(y)} if and only if all h i ( x ) = h i ( y ) {\displaystyle h_{i}(x)=h_{i}(y)} for i = 1 , 2 , … , k {\displaystyle i=1,2,\ldots ,k} . Since the members of F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} are independently chosen for any g ∈ G {\displaystyle g\in {\mathcal {G}}} , G {\displaystyle {\mathcal {G}}} is a ( d 1 , d 2 , p 1 k , p 2 k ) {\displaystyle (d_{1},d_{2},p_{1}^{k},p_{2}^{k})} -sensitive family. To create an OR-construction, we define a new family G {\displaystyle {\mathcal {G}}} of hash functions g, where each function g is constructed from k random functions h 1 , … , h k {\displaystyle h_{1},\ldots ,h_{k}} from F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} . We then say that for a hash function g ∈ G {\displaystyle g\in {\mathcal {G}}} , g ( x ) = g ( y ) {\displaystyle g(x)=g(y)} if and only if h i ( x ) = h i ( y ) {\displaystyle h_{i}(x)=h_{i}(y)} for one or more values of i. Since the members of F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} are independently chosen for any g ∈ G {\displaystyle g\in {\mathcal {G}}} , G {\displaystyle {\mathcal {G}}} is a ( d 1 , d 2 , 1 − ( 1 − p 1 ) k , 1 − ( 1 − p 2 ) k ) {\displaystyle (d_{1},d_{2},1-(1-p_{1})^{k},1-(1-p_{2})^{k})} -sensitive family. == Applications == LSH has been applied to several problem domains, including: Near-duplicate detection Hierarchical clustering Genome-wide association study Image similarity identification VisualRank Gene expression similarity identification Audio similarity identification Nearest neighbor search Audio fingerprint Digital video fingerprinting Shared memory organization in parallel computing Physical data organization in database management systems Training fully connected neural networks Computer security Machine learning == Methods == === Bit sampling for Hamming distance === One of the easiest ways to construct an LSH family is by bit sampling. This approach works for the Hamming distance over d-dimensional vectors { 0 , 1 } d {\displaystyle \{0,1\}^{d}} . Here, the family F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} of hash functions is simply the family of all the projections of points on one of the d {\displaystyle d} coordinates, i.e., F = { h : { 0 , 1 } d → { 0 , 1 } ∣ h ( x ) = x i for some i ∈ { 1 , … , d } } {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}=\{h\colon \{0,1\}^{d}\to \{0,1\}\mid h(x)=x_{i}{\text{ for some }}i\in \{1,\ldots ,d\}\}} , where x i {\displaystyle x_{i}} is the i {\displaystyle i} th coordinate of x {\displaystyle x} . A random function h {\displaystyle h} from F {\displaystyle {\mathcal {F}}} simply selects a random bit from the input point. This family has the following parameters: P 1 = 1 − R / d {\displaystyle P_{1}=1-R/d} , P 2 = 1 − c R / d {\displaystyle P_{2}=1-cR/d} . That is, any two vectors x , y {\displaystyle x,y} with Hamming distance at most R {\displaystyle R} collide under a random h {\displaystyle h} with probability at least P 1 {\displaystyle P_{1}} . Any x , y {\displaystyle x,y} with Hamming distance at least c R {\displaystyle cR} collide with probability at most P 2 {\displaystyle P_{2}} . === Min-wise independent permutations === Suppose U is composed of subsets of some ground set of enumerable items S and the similarity function of interest is the Jaccard index J. If π is a permutation on the indices of S, for A ⊆ S {\displaystyle A\subseteq S} let h ( A ) = min a ∈ A { π ( a ) } {\displaystyle h(A)=\min _{a\in A}\{\pi (a)\}} . Each possible choice of π defines a single hash function h mapping input sets to elements of S. Define the function family H to be the set of all such functions and let D be the uniform distribution. Given two sets A , B ⊆ S {\displaystyle A,B\subseteq S} the event that h ( A ) = h ( B ) {\displaystyle h(A)=h(B)} corresponds exactly to the event that the minimizer of π over A ∪ B {\displaystyle A\cup B} lies inside A ∩ B {\displaystyle A\cap B} . As h was chosen uniformly at random, P r [ h ( A ) = h ( B ) ] = J ( A , B ) {\displaystyle Pr[h(A)=h(B)]=J(A,B)\,} and ( H , D ) {\displaystyle (H,D)\,} define an LSH scheme for the Jaccard index. Because the symmetric group on n elements has size n!, choosing a truly random permutation from the full symmetric group is infeasible for even moderately sized n. Because of this fact, there has been significant work on finding a family of permutations that is "min-wise independent" — a permutation family for which each element of the domain has equal probability of being the minimum under a randomly chosen π. It has been established that a min-wise independent family of permutations is at least of size lcm ⁡ { 1 , 2 , … , n } ≥ e n − o ( n ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {lcm} \{\,1,2,\ldots ,n\,\}\geq e^{n-o(n)}} , and that this bound is tight. Because min-wise independent families are too big for practical applications, two variant notions of min-wise independence are introduced: restricted min-wise independent permutations families, and approximate min-wise independent families. Restricted min-wise independence is the min-wise independence property restricted to certain sets of cardinality at most k. Approximate min-wise independence differs from the property by at most a fixed ε. === Open source methods === ==== Nilsimsa Hash ==== Nilsimsa is a locality-sensitive hashing algorithm used in anti-spam efforts. The goal of Nilsimsa is to generate a hash digest of an email message such that the digests of two similar messages are similar to each other. The paper suggests that the Nilsimsa satisfies three requirements: The digest identifying each message should not

Cumulus (software)

Cumulus is a digital asset management software designed for client/server system which is developed by Canto Software. The product makes use of metadata for indexing, organizing, and searching. == History == Cumulus was first released as a Macintosh application in 1992, and was named by Apple Computer as the "Most Innovative Product of 1992". Cumulus introduced search capabilities beyond those available in the Macintosh at the time, particularly relating to thumbnails. Cumulus 1.0 was a single-user product with no network capabilities. Among the main features of Cumulus 1.0, the search function automatically generated previews and contained support for the included AppleTalk – Peer-to-Peer – network. Cumulus 2.5 was available in five different languages and received the 1993 MacUser magazine Eddy award for "Best Publishing & Graphics Utility". In 1995, Canto introduced the scanner software "Cirrus" to focus on the development of Cumulus. Cumulus 3, released in 1996, introduced a server version for the first time and contained the possibility to spread files over the Internet via the "Web Publisher". Since Apple offered Cumulus 3 with its "Workgroup Server" as a bundle, Cumulus became one of the leading digital asset management systems. Cumulus 4 was the first version that was network-ready, and was available for Macintosh, Windows and UNIX operating systems allowing for cross-platform file sharing. Released in 1998, the support of Solaris was discounted later. Cumulus 5 modified the software core to use an open architecture providing an API to external systems and databases. The open architecture of Cumulus 5 also enabled a more functional bridge between Cumulus and the Internet. Cumulus 6 introduced Embedded Java Plugin (EJP) which allowed system integrators to build custom Java plug-ins in order to extend the functionality of the Cumulus client. Cumulus 6.5 marked the end of the Cumulus Single User Edition product, which was licensed to MediaDex for further development and distribution. Cumulus 7 was introduced summer of 2006. Cumulus 8 was released in June 2009, with new indexing capabilities taking advantage of multicore/multiprocessor systems, and ability to manage a wider variety of file formats. Cumulus 8.5 was released in May 2011. Support was added for multilingual metadata, sometimes referred to as "World Metadata." Cumulus Sites was updated to support metadata editing and file uploads. Cumulus 8.6 was released in July 2012, and contains an updated user interface for the administration of Cumulus Sites and additional features for web-based administration of Cumulus. Other additions include features for collaboration links, multi-language support and automated version control. Cumulus 9 was released in September 2013 and introduced a new Web Client User Interface and the Cumulus Video Cloud. The Cumulus Web Client UI was redesigned to provide users with a modern, easy-to-use interface to support and guide the user while addressing modern business needs. The Cumulus Video Cloud extends the Cumulus video handling capabilities to add conversion and global streaming. Cumulus 9 also saw the addition of upload collection links which allow external collaborators to drag and drop files directly into Cumulus without needing a Cumulus account. Cumulus 9.1 was released in May 2014 and introduced the Adobe Drive Adapter for Cumulus which allows users to browse and search digital assets in Cumulus directly from Adobe work environments such as Photoshop, InDesign, Illustrator, Premier and other Adobe applications. Cumulus 10 (Cumulus X) was released July 2015 and introduced two mobile-friendly products: the Cumulus app and Portals. The Cumulus app on iOS was designed to allow users to collaborate either on an iPhone or iPad. Portals is the read-only version of the Cumulus Web Client where users can work with assets that admins allow. Cumulus 10.1 was introduced in January 2016 and included the InDesign Client integration where users can work with Adobe InDesign while accessing their assets from Cumulus. Cumulus 10.2 was introduced in September 2016 and brought the Media Delivery Cloud using Amazon Web Services (AWS). It allows users to manage their media rendition in a single source and distribute media files globally across different channels and devices. Cumulus 10.2.3 was released in February 2017 and came with a "crop and customize photos" feature for Portals and the Web Client. == Product overview == The cataloging of the file via upload into the archive is where Cumulus transfers maximum information about the file from the metadata. For image or photo files, this is typically Exif and IPTC data. The metadata is mainly used to search the archive. The use of embargo data supports license management for copyrighted material. The managed files can be cataloged and their usage can be set. The indexing is based on a predefined taxonomy, which is governed by the internal rules of the organization or by industry standards. You can specify whether files can only be used for specific purposes or only by certain groups of people. The production management system includes version management for files. Via the publication function, the files can be distributed directly via links or e-mails. It's also possible to access from the outside via the Cumulus Portals web interface, which allows a read access to released content from the catalog. There are different variants, starting with the "Workgroup archive server" up to the "Enterprise Business Server" for large companies. Both server and client are extensible through a Java-based plug-in architecture. Since version 7.0, there is a web application based on Ajax with a separate user interface. For access to the Cumulus catalog on mobile, there has been an application for Apple devices based on iOS since 2010. == Miscellaneous == In 2015, Cumulus developer Canto established the first Canto digital asset management (DAM) event. The event is held annually in Berlin. The Henry Stewart team has been hosting DAM conferences since 2006.

Jackknife variance estimates for random forest

In statistics, jackknife variance estimates for random forest are a way to estimate the variance in random forest models, in order to eliminate the bootstrap effects. == Jackknife variance estimates == The sampling variance of bagged learners is: V ( x ) = V a r [ θ ^ ∞ ( x ) ] {\displaystyle V(x)=Var[{\hat {\theta }}^{\infty }(x)]} Jackknife estimates can be considered to eliminate the bootstrap effects. The jackknife variance estimator is defined as: V ^ j = n − 1 n ∑ i = 1 n ( θ ^ ( − i ) − θ ¯ ) 2 {\displaystyle {\hat {V}}_{j}={\frac {n-1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}({\hat {\theta }}_{(-i)}-{\overline {\theta }})^{2}} In some classification problems, when random forest is used to fit models, jackknife estimated variance is defined as: V ^ j = n − 1 n ∑ i = 1 n ( t ¯ ( − i ) ⋆ ( x ) − t ¯ ⋆ ( x ) ) 2 {\displaystyle {\hat {V}}_{j}={\frac {n-1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}({\overline {t}}_{(-i)}^{\star }(x)-{\overline {t}}^{\star }(x))^{2}} Here, t ⋆ {\displaystyle t^{\star }} denotes a decision tree after training, t ( − i ) ⋆ {\displaystyle t_{(-i)}^{\star }} denotes the result based on samples without i t h {\displaystyle ith} observation. == Examples == E-mail spam problem is a common classification problem, in this problem, 57 features are used to classify spam e-mail and non-spam e-mail. Applying IJ-U variance formula to evaluate the accuracy of models with m=15,19 and 57. The results shows in paper( Confidence Intervals for Random Forests: The jackknife and the Infinitesimal Jackknife ) that m = 57 random forest appears to be quite unstable, while predictions made by m=5 random forest appear to be quite stable, this results is corresponding to the evaluation made by error percentage, in which the accuracy of model with m=5 is high and m=57 is low. Here, accuracy is measured by error rate, which is defined as: E r r o r R a t e = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N ∑ j = 1 M y i j , {\displaystyle ErrorRate={\frac {1}{N}}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\sum _{j=1}^{M}y_{ij},} Here N is also the number of samples, M is the number of classes, y i j {\displaystyle y_{ij}} is the indicator function which equals 1 when i t h {\displaystyle ith} observation is in class j, equals 0 when in other classes. No probability is considered here. There is another method which is similar to error rate to measure accuracy: l o g l o s s = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N ∑ j = 1 M y i j l o g ( p i j ) {\displaystyle logloss={\frac {1}{N}}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\sum _{j=1}^{M}y_{ij}log(p_{ij})} Here N is the number of samples, M is the number of classes, y i j {\displaystyle y_{ij}} is the indicator function which equals 1 when i t h {\displaystyle ith} observation is in class j, equals 0 when in other classes. p i j {\displaystyle p_{ij}} is the predicted probability of i t h {\displaystyle ith} observation in class j {\displaystyle j} .This method is used in Kaggle These two methods are very similar. == Modification for bias == When using Monte Carlo MSEs for estimating V I J ∞ {\displaystyle V_{IJ}^{\infty }} and V J ∞ {\displaystyle V_{J}^{\infty }} , a problem about the Monte Carlo bias should be considered, especially when n is large, the bias is getting large: E [ V ^ I J B ] − V ^ I J ∞ ≈ n ∑ b = 1 B ( t b ⋆ − t ¯ ⋆ ) 2 B {\displaystyle E[{\hat {V}}_{IJ}^{B}]-{\hat {V}}_{IJ}^{\infty }\approx {\frac {n\sum _{b=1}^{B}(t_{b}^{\star }-{\bar {t}}^{\star })^{2}}{B}}} To eliminate this influence, bias-corrected modifications are suggested: V ^ I J − U B = V ^ I J B − n ∑ b = 1 B ( t b ⋆ − t ¯ ⋆ ) 2 B {\displaystyle {\hat {V}}_{IJ-U}^{B}={\hat {V}}_{IJ}^{B}-{\frac {n\sum _{b=1}^{B}(t_{b}^{\star }-{\bar {t}}^{\star })^{2}}{B}}} V ^ J − U B = V ^ J B − ( e − 1 ) n ∑ b = 1 B ( t b ⋆ − t ¯ ⋆ ) 2 B {\displaystyle {\hat {V}}_{J-U}^{B}={\hat {V}}_{J}^{B}-(e-1){\frac {n\sum _{b=1}^{B}(t_{b}^{\star }-{\bar {t}}^{\star })^{2}}{B}}}