Visible (mobile app)

Visible is a health tracking mobile app for people with long COVID and myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). The company was founded by a Harry Leeming, an engineer from London living with long Covid since 2020, and Luke Martin-Fuller. In November 2022, Visible released an open beta of an app that aims to help people pace their activities to avoid post-exertional malaise. The app gathers data on exertion levels, symptom severity, and heart-rate variability. HRV is approximated using a smartphone's camera via a technique called photoplethysmography, and according to the app's developers, can indicate how much someone needs rest. The app is currently free, but is expected to be freemium in the future. Users can also opt to allow their data be used for research purposes. In July 2023, Visible and Imperial College London announced the start of the first two studies. One is on the effects of the menstrual cycle on long COVID symptoms, and the other is on the condition's epidemiology and economic impact. Visible has announced plans to couple the app with activity trackers for continuous monitoring of heart-rate and actimetry data, which the developers claim will be more effective. As of 2022, no clinical trials on Visible's effectiveness have been conducted.

Network Abstraction Layer

The Network Abstraction Layer (NAL) is a part of the H.264/AVC and HEVC video coding standards. The main goal of the NAL is the provision of a "network-friendly" video representation addressing "conversational" (video telephony) and "non conversational" (storage, broadcast, or streaming) applications. NAL has achieved a significant improvement in application flexibility relative to prior video coding standards. == Introduction == An increasing number of services and growing popularity of high definition TV are creating greater needs for higher coding efficiency. Moreover, other transmission media such as cable modem, xDSL, or UMTS offer much lower data rates than broadcast channels, and enhanced coding efficiency can enable the transmission of more video channels or higher quality video representations within existing digital transmission capacities. Video coding for telecommunication applications has diversified from ISDN and T1/E1 service to embrace PSTN, mobile wireless networks, and LAN/Internet network delivery. Throughout this evolution, continued efforts have been made to maximize coding efficiency while dealing with the diversification of network types and their characteristic formatting and loss/error robustness requirements. The H.264/AVC and HEVC standards are designed for technical solutions including areas like broadcasting (over cable, satellite, cable modem, DSL, terrestrial, etc.) interactive or serial storage on optical and magnetic devices, conversational services, video-on-demand or multimedia streaming, multimedia messaging services, etc. Moreover, new applications may be deployed over existing and future networks. This raises the question about how to handle this variety of applications and networks. To address this need for flexibility and customizability, the design covers a NAL that formats the Video Coding Layer (VCL) representation of the video and provides header information in a manner appropriate for conveyance by a variety of transport layers or storage media. The NAL is designed in order to provide "network friendliness" to enable simple and effective customization of the use of VCL for a broad variety of systems. The NAL facilitates the ability to map VCL data to transport layers such as: RTP/IP for any kind of real-time wire-line and wireless Internet services. File formats, e.g., ISO MP4 for storage and MMS. H.32X for wireline and wireless conversational services. MPEG-2 systems for broadcasting services, etc. The full degree of customization of the video content to fit the needs of each particular application is outside the scope of the video coding standardization effort, but the design of the NAL anticipates a variety of such mappings. Some key concepts of the NAL are NAL units, byte stream, and packet formats uses of NAL units, parameter sets, and access units. A short description of these concepts is given below. == NAL units == The coded video data is organized into NAL units, each of which is effectively a packet that contains an integer number of bytes. The first byte of each H.264/AVC NAL unit is a header byte that contains an indication of the type of data in the NAL unit. For HEVC the header was extended to two bytes. All the remaining bytes contain payload data of the type indicated by the header. The NAL unit structure definition specifies a generic format for use in both packet-oriented and bitstream-oriented transport systems, and a series of NAL units generated by an encoder is referred to as a NAL unit stream. == NAL Units in Byte-Stream Format Use == Some systems require delivery of the entire or partial NAL unit stream as an ordered stream of bytes or bits within which the locations of NAL unit boundaries need to be identifiable from patterns within the coded data itself. For use in such systems, the H.264/AVC and HEVC specifications define a byte stream format. In the byte stream format, each NAL unit is prefixed by a specific pattern of three bytes called a start code prefix. The boundaries of the NAL unit can then be identified by searching the coded data for the unique start code prefix pattern. The use of emulation prevention bytes guarantees that start code prefixes are unique identifiers of the start of a new NAL unit. A small amount of additional data (one byte per video picture) is also added to allow decoders that operate in systems that provide streams of bits without alignment to byte boundaries to recover the necessary alignment from the data in the stream. Additional data can also be inserted in the byte stream format that allows expansion of the amount of data to be sent and can aid in achieving more rapid byte alignment recovery, if desired. == NAL Units in Packet-Transport System Use == In other systems (e.g., IP/RTP systems), the coded data is carried in packets that are framed by the system transport protocol, and identification of the boundaries of NAL units within the packets can be established without use of start code prefix patterns. In such systems, the inclusion of start code prefixes in the data would be a waste of data carrying capacity, so instead the NAL units can be carried in data packets without start code prefixes. == VCL and Non-VCL NAL Units == NAL units are classified into VCL and non-VCL NAL units. VCL NAL units contain the data that represents the values of the samples in the video pictures. Non-VCL NAL units contain any associated additional information such as parameter sets (important header data that can apply to a large number of VCL NAL units) and supplemental enhancement information (timing information and other supplemental data that may enhance usability of the decoded video signal but are not necessary for decoding the values of the samples in the video pictures). == Parameter Sets == A parameter set contains shared configuration data that is carried in non-VCL NAL units. Parameter sets are typically reused when decoding many coded pictures within a video sequence. Each VCL NAL unit references a picture parameter set (PPS), which in turn references a sequence parameter set (SPS). There are two types of parameter sets: Sequence parameter set (SPS), which specifies mostly constant configuration such as resolution, bit depth, or chroma format. (For a concrete implementation, see FFmpeg's SPS struct.) Picture parameter set (PPS), which applies on top of an SPS, and specifies configuration such as QP offsets. (For a concrete implementation, see FFmpeg's PPS struct.) The sequence and picture parameter-set mechanism decouples the transmission of infrequently changing information from the transmission of coded representations of the values of the samples in the video pictures. Each VCL NAL unit contains an identifier that refers to the content of the relevant picture parameter set and each picture parameter set contains an identifier that refers to the content of the relevant sequence parameter set. In this manner, a small amount of data (the identifier) can be used to refer to a larger amount of information (the parameter set) without repeating that information within each VCL NAL unit. Sequence and picture parameter sets can be sent well ahead of the VCL NAL units that they apply to, and can be repeated to provide robustness against data loss. In some applications, parameter sets may be sent within the channel that carries the VCL NAL units (termed "in-band" transmission). In other applications, it can be advantageous to convey the parameter sets "out-of-band" using a more reliable transport mechanism than the video channel itself. == Access Units == A set of NAL units in a specified form is referred to as an access unit. The decoding of each access unit results in one decoded picture. Each access unit contains a set of VCL NAL units that together compose a primary coded picture. It may also be prefixed with an access unit delimiter to aid in locating the start of the access unit. Some supplemental enhancement information containing data such as picture timing information may also precede the primary coded picture. The primary coded picture consists of a set of VCL NAL units consisting of slices or slice data partitions that represent the samples of the video picture. Following the primary coded picture may be some additional VCL NAL units that contain redundant representations of areas of the same video picture. These are referred to as redundant coded pictures, and are available for use by a decoder in recovering from loss or corruption of the data in the primary coded pictures. Decoders are not required to decode redundant coded pictures if they are present. Finally, if the coded picture is the last picture of a coded video sequence (a sequence of pictures that is independently decodable and uses only one sequence parameter set), an end of sequence NAL unit may be present to indicate the end of the sequence; and if the coded picture is the last coded picture in the entire NAL unit stream, an end of stream NAL unit may be present to

Winner-take-all (computing)

Winner-take-all is a computational principle applied in computational models of neural networks by which neurons compete with each other for activation. In the classical form, only the neuron with the highest activation stays active while all other neurons shut down; however, other variations allow more than one neuron to be active, for example the soft winner take-all, by which a power function is applied to the neurons. == Neural networks == In the theory of artificial neural networks, winner-take-all networks are a case of competitive learning in recurrent neural networks. Output nodes in the network mutually inhibit each other, while simultaneously activating themselves through reflexive connections. After some time, only one node in the output layer will be active, namely the one corresponding to the strongest input. Thus the network uses nonlinear inhibition to pick out the largest of a set of inputs. Winner-take-all is a general computational primitive that can be implemented using different types of neural network models, including both continuous-time and spiking networks. Winner-take-all networks are commonly used in computational models of the brain, particularly for distributed decision-making or action selection in the cortex. Important examples include hierarchical models of vision, and models of selective attention and recognition. They are also common in artificial neural networks and neuromorphic analog VLSI circuits. It has been formally proven that the winner-take-all operation is computationally powerful compared to other nonlinear operations, such as thresholding. In many practical cases, there is not only one single neuron which becomes active but there are exactly k neurons which become active for a fixed number k. This principle is referred to as k-winners-take-all. === Example algorithm === Consider a single linear neuron, with inputs x 1 , … , x n {\displaystyle x_{1},\dots ,x_{n}} . Each input has weight w i {\displaystyle w_{i}} , and the output of the neuron is ∑ i w i x i {\displaystyle \sum _{i}w_{i}x_{i}} . In the Instar learning rule, on each input vector, the weight vectors are modified according to Δ w i = η ( x i − w i ) {\displaystyle \Delta w_{i}=\eta (x_{i}-w_{i})} where η {\displaystyle \eta } is the learning rate. This rule is unsupervised, since we need just the input vector, not a reference output. Now, consider multiple linear neurons y 1 , … , y m {\displaystyle y_{1},\dots ,y_{m}} . The output of each satisfies y i = ∑ j w i j x j {\displaystyle y_{i}=\sum _{j}w_{ij}x_{j}} . In the winner-take-all algorithm, the weights are modified as follows. Given an input vector x {\displaystyle x} , each output is computed. The neuron with the largest output is selected, and the weights going into that neuron are modified according to the Instar learning rule. All other weights remain unchanged. The k-winners-take-all rule is similar, except that the Instar learning rule is applied to the weights going into the k neurons with the largest outputs. == Circuit example == A simple, but popular CMOS winner-take-all circuit is shown on the right. This circuit was originally proposed by Lazzaro et al. (1989) using MOS transistors biased to operate in the weak-inversion or subthreshold regime. In the particular case shown there are only two inputs (IIN,1 and IIN,2), but the circuit can be easily extended to multiple inputs in a straightforward way. It operates on continuous-time input signals (currents) in parallel, using only two transistors per input. In addition, the bias current IBIAS is set by a single global transistor that is common to all the inputs. The largest of the input currents sets the common potential VC. As a result, the corresponding output carries almost all the bias current, while the other outputs have currents that are close to zero. Thus, the circuit selects the larger of the two input currents, i.e., if IIN,1 > IIN,2, we get IOUT,1 = IBIAS and IOUT,2 = 0. Similarly, if IIN,2 > IIN,1, we get IOUT,1 = 0 and IOUT,2 = IBIAS. A SPICE-based DC simulation of the CMOS winner-take-all circuit in the two-input case is shown on the right. As shown in the top subplot, the input IIN,1 was fixed at 6nA, while IIN,2 was linearly increased from 0 to 10nA. The bottom subplot shows the two output currents. As expected, the output corresponding to the larger of the two inputs carries the entire bias current (10nA in this case), forcing the other output current nearly to zero. == Other uses == In stereo matching algorithms, following the taxonomy proposed by Scharstein and Szelliski, winner-take-all is a local method for disparity computation. Adopting a winner-take-all strategy, the disparity associated with the minimum or maximum cost value is selected at each pixel. It is axiomatic that in the electronic commerce market, early dominant players such as AOL or Yahoo! get most of the rewards. By 1998, one study found the top 5% of all web sites garnered more than 74% of all traffic. The winner-take-all hypothesis in economics suggests that once a technology or a firm gets ahead, it will do better and better over time, whereas lagging technology and firms will fall further behind. See First-mover advantage.

Policy gradient method

Policy gradient methods are a class of reinforcement learning algorithms and a sub-class of policy optimization methods. Unlike value-based methods which learn a value function to derive a policy, policy optimization methods directly learn a policy function π {\displaystyle \pi } that selects actions without consulting a value function. For policy gradient to apply, the policy function π θ {\displaystyle \pi _{\theta }} is parameterized by a differentiable parameter θ {\displaystyle \theta } . == Overview == In policy-based RL, the actor is a parameterized policy function π θ {\displaystyle \pi _{\theta }} , where θ {\displaystyle \theta } are the parameters of the actor. The actor takes as argument the state of the environment s {\displaystyle s} and produces a probability distribution π θ ( ⋅ ∣ s ) {\displaystyle \pi _{\theta }(\cdot \mid s)} . If the action space is discrete, then ∑ a π θ ( a ∣ s ) = 1 {\displaystyle \sum _{a}\pi _{\theta }(a\mid s)=1} . If the action space is continuous, then ∫ a π θ ( a ∣ s ) d a = 1 {\displaystyle \int _{a}\pi _{\theta }(a\mid s)\mathrm {d} a=1} . The goal of policy optimization is to find some θ {\displaystyle \theta } that maximizes the expected episodic reward J ( θ ) {\displaystyle J(\theta )} : J ( θ ) = E π θ [ ∑ t = 0 T γ t R t | S 0 = s 0 ] {\displaystyle J(\theta )=\mathbb {E} _{\pi _{\theta }}\left[\sum _{t=0}^{T}\gamma ^{t}R_{t}{\Big |}S_{0}=s_{0}\right]} where γ {\displaystyle \gamma } is the discount factor, R t {\displaystyle R_{t}} is the reward at step t {\displaystyle t} , s 0 {\displaystyle s_{0}} is the starting state, and T {\displaystyle T} is the time-horizon (which can be infinite). The policy gradient is defined as ∇ θ J ( θ ) {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }J(\theta )} . Different policy gradient methods stochastically estimate the policy gradient in different ways. The goal of any policy gradient method is to iteratively maximize J ( θ ) {\displaystyle J(\theta )} by gradient ascent. Since the key part of any policy gradient method is the stochastic estimation of the policy gradient, they are also studied under the title of "Monte Carlo gradient estimation". == REINFORCE == === Policy gradient === The REINFORCE algorithm, introduced by Ronald J. Williams in 1992, was the first policy gradient method. It is based on the identity for the policy gradient ∇ θ J ( θ ) = E π θ [ ∑ t = 0 T ∇ θ ln ⁡ π θ ( A t ∣ S t ) ∑ t = 0 T ( γ t R t ) | S 0 = s 0 ] {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }J(\theta )=\mathbb {E} _{\pi _{\theta }}\left[\sum _{t=0}^{T}\nabla _{\theta }\ln \pi _{\theta }(A_{t}\mid S_{t})\;\sum _{t=0}^{T}(\gamma ^{t}R_{t}){\Big |}S_{0}=s_{0}\right]} which can be improved via the "causality trick" ∇ θ J ( θ ) = E π θ [ ∑ t = 0 T ∇ θ ln ⁡ π θ ( A t ∣ S t ) ∑ τ = t T ( γ τ R τ ) | S 0 = s 0 ] {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }J(\theta )=\mathbb {E} _{\pi _{\theta }}\left[\sum _{t=0}^{T}\nabla _{\theta }\ln \pi _{\theta }(A_{t}\mid S_{t})\sum _{\tau =t}^{T}(\gamma ^{\tau }R_{\tau }){\Big |}S_{0}=s_{0}\right]} Thus, we have an unbiased estimator of the policy gradient: ∇ θ J ( θ ) ≈ 1 N ∑ n = 1 N [ ∑ t = 0 T ∇ θ ln ⁡ π θ ( A t , n ∣ S t , n ) ∑ τ = t T ( γ τ − t R τ , n ) ] {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }J(\theta )\approx {\frac {1}{N}}\sum _{n=1}^{N}\left[\sum _{t=0}^{T}\nabla _{\theta }\ln \pi _{\theta }(A_{t,n}\mid S_{t,n})\sum _{\tau =t}^{T}(\gamma ^{\tau -t}R_{\tau ,n})\right]} where the index n {\displaystyle n} ranges over N {\displaystyle N} rollout trajectories using the policy π θ {\displaystyle \pi _{\theta }} . The score function ∇ θ ln ⁡ π θ ( A t ∣ S t ) {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }\ln \pi _{\theta }(A_{t}\mid S_{t})} can be interpreted as the direction in the parameter space that increases the probability of taking action A t {\displaystyle A_{t}} in state S t {\displaystyle S_{t}} . The policy gradient, then, is a weighted average of all possible directions to increase the probability of taking any action in any state, but weighted by reward signals, so that if taking a certain action in a certain state is associated with high reward, then that direction would be highly reinforced, and vice versa. === Algorithm === The REINFORCE algorithm is a loop: Rollout N {\displaystyle N} trajectories in the environment, using π θ t {\displaystyle \pi _{\theta _{t}}} as the policy function. Compute the policy gradient estimation: g i ← 1 N ∑ n = 1 N [ ∑ t = 0 T ∇ θ t ln ⁡ π θ ( A t , n ∣ S t , n ) ∑ τ = t T ( γ τ R τ , n ) ] {\displaystyle g_{i}\leftarrow {\frac {1}{N}}\sum _{n=1}^{N}\left[\sum _{t=0}^{T}\nabla _{\theta _{t}}\ln \pi _{\theta }(A_{t,n}\mid S_{t,n})\sum _{\tau =t}^{T}(\gamma ^{\tau }R_{\tau ,n})\right]} Update the policy by gradient ascent: θ i + 1 ← θ i + α i g i {\displaystyle \theta _{i+1}\leftarrow \theta _{i}+\alpha _{i}g_{i}} Here, α i {\displaystyle \alpha _{i}} is the learning rate at update step i {\displaystyle i} . == Variance reduction == REINFORCE is an on-policy algorithm, meaning that the trajectories used for the update must be sampled from the current policy π θ {\displaystyle \pi _{\theta }} . This can lead to high variance in the updates, as the returns R ( τ ) {\displaystyle R(\tau )} can vary significantly between trajectories. Many variants of REINFORCE have been introduced, under the title of variance reduction. === REINFORCE with baseline === A common way for reducing variance is the REINFORCE with baseline algorithm, based on the following identity: ∇ θ J ( θ ) = E π θ [ ∑ t = 0 T ∇ θ ln ⁡ π θ ( A t | S t ) ( ∑ τ = t T ( γ τ R τ ) − b ( S t ) ) | S 0 = s 0 ] {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }J(\theta )=\mathbb {E} _{\pi _{\theta }}\left[\sum _{t=0}^{T}\nabla _{\theta }\ln \pi _{\theta }(A_{t}|S_{t})\left(\sum _{\tau =t}^{T}(\gamma ^{\tau }R_{\tau })-b(S_{t})\right){\Big |}S_{0}=s_{0}\right]} for any function b : States → R {\displaystyle b:{\text{States}}\to \mathbb {R} } . This can be proven by applying the previous lemma. The algorithm uses the modified gradient estimator g i ← 1 N ∑ n = 1 N [ ∑ t = 0 T ∇ θ t ln ⁡ π θ ( A t , n | S t , n ) ( ∑ τ = t T ( γ τ R τ , n ) − b i ( S t , n ) ) ] {\displaystyle g_{i}\leftarrow {\frac {1}{N}}\sum _{n=1}^{N}\left[\sum _{t=0}^{T}\nabla _{\theta _{t}}\ln \pi _{\theta }(A_{t,n}|S_{t,n})\left(\sum _{\tau =t}^{T}(\gamma ^{\tau }R_{\tau ,n})-b_{i}(S_{t,n})\right)\right]} and the original REINFORCE algorithm is the special case where b i ≡ 0 {\displaystyle b_{i}\equiv 0} . === Actor-critic methods === If b i {\textstyle b_{i}} is chosen well, such that b i ( S t ) ≈ ∑ τ = t T ( γ τ R τ ) = γ t V π θ i ( S t ) {\textstyle b_{i}(S_{t})\approx \sum _{\tau =t}^{T}(\gamma ^{\tau }R_{\tau })=\gamma ^{t}V^{\pi _{\theta _{i}}}(S_{t})} , this could significantly decrease variance in the gradient estimation. That is, the baseline should be as close to the value function V π θ i ( S t ) {\displaystyle V^{\pi _{\theta _{i}}}(S_{t})} as possible, approaching the ideal of: ∇ θ J ( θ ) = E π θ [ ∑ t = 0 T ∇ θ ln ⁡ π θ ( A t | S t ) ( ∑ τ = t T ( γ τ R τ ) − γ t V π θ ( S t ) ) | S 0 = s 0 ] {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }J(\theta )=\mathbb {E} _{\pi _{\theta }}\left[\sum _{t=0}^{T}\nabla _{\theta }\ln \pi _{\theta }(A_{t}|S_{t})\left(\sum _{\tau =t}^{T}(\gamma ^{\tau }R_{\tau })-\gamma ^{t}V^{\pi _{\theta }}(S_{t})\right){\Big |}S_{0}=s_{0}\right]} Note that, as the policy π θ t {\displaystyle \pi _{\theta _{t}}} updates, the value function V π θ i ( S t ) {\displaystyle V^{\pi _{\theta _{i}}}(S_{t})} updates as well, so the baseline should also be updated. One common approach is to train a separate function that estimates the value function, and use that as the baseline. This is one of the actor-critic methods, where the policy function is the actor and the value function is the critic. The Q-function Q π {\displaystyle Q^{\pi }} can also be used as the critic, since ∇ θ J ( θ ) = E π θ [ ∑ 0 ≤ t ≤ T γ t ∇ θ ln ⁡ π θ ( A t | S t ) ⋅ Q π θ ( S t , A t ) | S 0 = s 0 ] {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }J(\theta )=E_{\pi _{\theta }}\left[\sum _{0\leq t\leq T}\gamma ^{t}\nabla _{\theta }\ln \pi _{\theta }(A_{t}|S_{t})\cdot Q^{\pi _{\theta }}(S_{t},A_{t}){\Big |}S_{0}=s_{0}\right]} by a similar argument using the tower law. Subtracting the value function as a baseline, we find that the advantage function A π ( S , A ) = Q π ( S , A ) − V π ( S ) {\displaystyle A^{\pi }(S,A)=Q^{\pi }(S,A)-V^{\pi }(S)} can be used as the critic as well: ∇ θ J ( θ ) = E π θ [ ∑ 0 ≤ t ≤ T γ t ∇ θ ln ⁡ π θ ( A t | S t ) ⋅ A π θ ( S t , A t ) | S 0 = s 0 ] {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }J(\theta )=E_{\pi _{\theta }}\left[\sum _{0\leq t\leq T}\gamma ^{t}\nabla _{\theta }\ln \pi _{\theta }(A_{t}|S_{t})\cdot A^{\pi _{\theta }}(S_{t},A_{t}){\Big |}S_{0}=s_{0}\right]} In summary, there are many unbiased estimators for ∇ θ J θ {\textstyle \nabla _{\theta }J_{\theta }} , all in the form of: ∇ θ J ( θ ) = E π θ [ ∑ 0 ≤ t ≤ T ∇ θ ln ⁡ π θ ( A t | S t ) ⋅ Ψ t | S 0 = s 0 ] {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }J(\theta )=E_{\pi _{\theta }}\left[\su

Mean squared prediction error

In statistics the mean squared prediction error (MSPE), also known as mean squared error of the predictions, of a smoothing, curve fitting, or regression procedure is the expected value of the squared prediction errors (PE), the square difference between the fitted values implied by the predictive function g ^ {\displaystyle {\widehat {g}}} and the values of the (unobservable) true value g. It is an inverse measure of the explanatory power of g ^ , {\displaystyle {\widehat {g}},} and can be used in the process of cross-validation of an estimated model. Knowledge of g would be required in order to calculate the MSPE exactly; in practice, MSPE is estimated. == Formulation == If the smoothing or fitting procedure has projection matrix (i.e., hat matrix) L, which maps the observed values vector y {\displaystyle y} to predicted values vector y ^ = L y , {\displaystyle {\hat {y}}=Ly,} then PE and MSPE are formulated as: P E i = g ( x i ) − g ^ ( x i ) , {\displaystyle \operatorname {PE_{i}} =g(x_{i})-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i}),} MSPE = E ⁡ [ PE i 2 ] = ∑ i = 1 n PE i 2 ⁡ / n . {\displaystyle \operatorname {MSPE} =\operatorname {E} \left[\operatorname {PE} _{i}^{2}\right]=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\operatorname {PE} _{i}^{2}/n.} The MSPE can be decomposed into two terms: the squared bias (mean error) of the fitted values and the variance of the fitted values: MSPE = ME 2 + VAR , {\displaystyle \operatorname {MSPE} =\operatorname {ME} ^{2}+\operatorname {VAR} ,} ME = E ⁡ [ g ^ ( x i ) − g ( x i ) ] {\displaystyle \operatorname {ME} =\operatorname {E} \left[{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})-g(x_{i})\right]} VAR = E ⁡ [ ( g ^ ( x i ) − E ⁡ [ g ( x i ) ] ) 2 ] . {\displaystyle \operatorname {VAR} =\operatorname {E} \left[\left({\widehat {g}}(x_{i})-\operatorname {E} \left[{g}(x_{i})\right]\right)^{2}\right].} The quantity SSPE=nMSPE is called sum squared prediction error. The root mean squared prediction error is the square root of MSPE: RMSPE=√MSPE. == Computation of MSPE over out-of-sample data == The mean squared prediction error can be computed exactly in two contexts. First, with a data sample of length n, the data analyst may run the regression over only q of the data points (with q < n), holding back the other n – q data points with the specific purpose of using them to compute the estimated model’s MSPE out of sample (i.e., not using data that were used in the model estimation process). Since the regression process is tailored to the q in-sample points, normally the in-sample MSPE will be smaller than the out-of-sample one computed over the n – q held-back points. If the increase in the MSPE out of sample compared to in sample is relatively slight, that results in the model being viewed favorably. And if two models are to be compared, the one with the lower MSPE over the n – q out-of-sample data points is viewed more favorably, regardless of the models’ relative in-sample performances. The out-of-sample MSPE in this context is exact for the out-of-sample data points that it was computed over, but is merely an estimate of the model’s MSPE for the mostly unobserved population from which the data were drawn. Second, as time goes on more data may become available to the data analyst, and then the MSPE can be computed over these new data. == Estimation of MSPE over the population == When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows. For the model y i = g ( x i ) + σ ε i {\displaystyle y_{i}=g(x_{i})+\sigma \varepsilon _{i}} where ε i ∼ N ( 0 , 1 ) {\displaystyle \varepsilon _{i}\sim {\mathcal {N}}(0,1)} , one may write n ⋅ MSPE ⁡ ( L ) = g T ( I − L ) T ( I − L ) g + σ 2 tr ⁡ [ L T L ] . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {MSPE} (L)=g^{\text{T}}(I-L)^{\text{T}}(I-L)g+\sigma ^{2}\operatorname {tr} \left[L^{\text{T}}L\right].} Using in-sample data values, the first term on the right side is equivalent to ∑ i = 1 n ( E ⁡ [ g ( x i ) − g ^ ( x i ) ] ) 2 = E ⁡ [ ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 ] − σ 2 tr ⁡ [ ( I − L ) T ( I − L ) ] . {\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(\operatorname {E} \left[g(x_{i})-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right]\right)^{2}=\operatorname {E} \left[\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}\right]-\sigma ^{2}\operatorname {tr} \left[\left(I-L\right)^{T}\left(I-L\right)\right].} Thus, n ⋅ MSPE ⁡ ( L ) = E ⁡ [ ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 ] − σ 2 ( n − tr ⁡ [ L ] ) . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {MSPE} (L)=\operatorname {E} \left[\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}\right]-\sigma ^{2}\left(n-\operatorname {tr} \left[L\right]\right).} If σ 2 {\displaystyle \sigma ^{2}} is known or well-estimated by σ ^ 2 {\displaystyle {\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}} , it becomes possible to estimate MSPE by n ⋅ M S P E ^ ⁡ ( L ) = ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 − σ ^ 2 ( n − tr ⁡ [ L ] ) . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {\widehat {MSPE}} (L)=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}-{\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}\left(n-\operatorname {tr} \left[L\right]\right).} Colin Mallows advocated this method in the construction of his model selection statistic Cp, which is a normalized version of the estimated MSPE: C p = ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 σ ^ 2 − n + 2 p . {\displaystyle C_{p}={\frac {\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}}{{\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}}}-n+2p.} where p the number of estimated parameters p and σ ^ 2 {\displaystyle {\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}} is computed from the version of the model that includes all possible regressors. That concludes this proof.

International Conference on Language Resources and Evaluation

The International Conference on Language Resources and Evaluation is an international conference organised by the ELRA Language Resources Association every other year (on even years) with the support of institutions and organisations involved in Natural language processing. The series of LREC conferences was launched in Granada in 1998. == History of conferences == The survey of the LREC conferences over the period 1998-2013 was presented during the 2014 conference in Reykjavik as a closing session. It appears that the number of papers and signatures is increasing over time. The average number of authors per paper is higher as well. The percentage of new authors is between 68% and 78%. The distribution between male (65%) and female (35%) authors is stable over time. The most frequent technical term is "annotation", then comes "part-of-speech". == The LRE Map == The LRE Map was introduced at LREC 2010 and is now a regular feature of the LREC submission process for both the conference papers and the workshop papers. At the submission stage, the authors are asked to provide some basic information about all the resources (in a broad sense, i.e. including tools, standards and evaluation packages), either used or created, described in their papers. All these descriptors are then gathered in a global matrix called the LRE Map. This feature has been extended to several other conferences.

Bayesian network

A Bayesian network (also known as a Bayes network, Bayes net, belief network, or decision network) is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). While it is one of several forms of causal notation, causal networks are special cases of Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks are ideal for taking an event that occurred and predicting the likelihood that any one of several possible known causes was the contributing factor. For example, a Bayesian network could represent the probabilistic relationships between diseases and symptoms. Given symptoms, the network can be used to compute the probabilities of the presence of various diseases. Efficient algorithms can perform inference and learning in Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks that model sequences of variables (e.g. speech signals or protein sequences) are called dynamic Bayesian networks. Generalizations of Bayesian networks that can represent and solve decision problems under uncertainty are called influence diagrams. == Graphical model == Formally, Bayesian networks are directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) whose nodes represent variables in the Bayesian sense: they may be observable quantities, latent variables, unknown parameters or hypotheses. Each edge represents a direct conditional dependency. Any pair of nodes that are not connected (i.e. no path connects one node to the other) represent variables that are conditionally independent of each other. Each node is associated with a probability function that takes, as input, a particular set of values for the node's parent variables, and gives (as output) the probability (or probability distribution, if applicable) of the variable represented by the node. For example, if m {\displaystyle m} parent nodes represent m {\displaystyle m} Boolean variables, then the probability function could be represented by a table of 2 m {\displaystyle 2^{m}} entries, one entry for each of the 2 m {\displaystyle 2^{m}} possible parent combinations. Similar ideas may be applied to undirected, and possibly cyclic, graphs such as Markov networks. == Example == Suppose we want to model the dependencies between three variables: the sprinkler (or more appropriately, its state - whether it is on or not), the presence or absence of rain and whether the grass is wet or not. Observe that two events can cause the grass to become wet: an active sprinkler or rain. Rain has a direct effect on the use of the sprinkler (namely that when it rains, the sprinkler usually is not active). This situation can be modeled with a Bayesian network (shown to the right). Each variable has two possible values, T (for true) and F (for false). The joint probability function is, by the chain rule of probability, Pr ( G , S , R ) = Pr ( G ∣ S , R ) Pr ( S ∣ R ) Pr ( R ) {\displaystyle \Pr(G,S,R)=\Pr(G\mid S,R)\Pr(S\mid R)\Pr(R)} where G = "Grass wet (true/false)", S = "Sprinkler turned on (true/false)", and R = "Raining (true/false)". The model can answer questions about the presence of a cause given the presence of an effect (so-called inverse probability) like "What is the probability that it is raining, given the grass is wet?" by using the conditional probability formula and summing over all nuisance variables: Pr ( R = T ∣ G = T ) = Pr ( G = T , R = T ) Pr ( G = T ) = ∑ x ∈ { T , F } Pr ( G = T , S = x , R = T ) ∑ x , y ∈ { T , F } Pr ( G = T , S = x , R = y ) {\displaystyle \Pr(R=T\mid G=T)={\frac {\Pr(G=T,R=T)}{\Pr(G=T)}}={\frac {\sum _{x\in \{T,F\}}\Pr(G=T,S=x,R=T)}{\sum _{x,y\in \{T,F\}}\Pr(G=T,S=x,R=y)}}} Using the expansion for the joint probability function Pr ( G , S , R ) {\displaystyle \Pr(G,S,R)} and the conditional probabilities from the conditional probability tables (CPTs) stated in the diagram, one can evaluate each term in the sums in the numerator and denominator. For example, Pr ( G = T , S = T , R = T ) = Pr ( G = T ∣ S = T , R = T ) Pr ( S = T ∣ R = T ) Pr ( R = T ) = 0.99 × 0.01 × 0.2 = 0.00198. {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}\Pr(G=T,S=T,R=T)&=\Pr(G=T\mid S=T,R=T)\Pr(S=T\mid R=T)\Pr(R=T)\\&=0.99\times 0.01\times 0.2\\&=0.00198.\end{aligned}}} Then the numerical results (subscripted by the associated variable values) are Pr ( R = T ∣ G = T ) = 0.00198 T T T + 0.1584 T F T 0.00198 T T T + 0.288 T T F + 0.1584 T F T + 0.0 T F F = 891 2491 ≈ 35.77 % . {\displaystyle \Pr(R=T\mid G=T)={\frac {0.00198_{TTT}+0.1584_{TFT}}{0.00198_{TTT}+0.288_{TTF}+0.1584_{TFT}+0.0_{TFF}}}={\frac {891}{2491}}\approx 35.77\%.} To answer an interventional question, such as "What is the probability that it would rain, given that we wet the grass?" the answer is governed by the post-intervention joint distribution function Pr ( S , R ∣ do ( G = T ) ) = Pr ( S ∣ R ) Pr ( R ) {\displaystyle \Pr(S,R\mid {\text{do}}(G=T))=\Pr(S\mid R)\Pr(R)} obtained by removing the factor Pr ( G ∣ S , R ) {\displaystyle \Pr(G\mid S,R)} from the pre-intervention distribution. The do operator forces the value of G to be true. The probability of rain is unaffected by the action: Pr ( R ∣ do ( G = T ) ) = Pr ( R ) . {\displaystyle \Pr(R\mid {\text{do}}(G=T))=\Pr(R).} To predict the impact of turning the sprinkler on: Pr ( R , G ∣ do ( S = T ) ) = Pr ( R ) Pr ( G ∣ R , S = T ) {\displaystyle \Pr(R,G\mid {\text{do}}(S=T))=\Pr(R)\Pr(G\mid R,S=T)} with the term Pr ( S = T ∣ R ) {\displaystyle \Pr(S=T\mid R)} removed, showing that the action affects the grass but not the rain. These predictions may not be feasible given unobserved variables, as in most policy evaluation problems. The effect of the action do ( x ) {\displaystyle {\text{do}}(x)} can still be predicted, however, whenever the back-door criterion is satisfied. It states that, if a set Z of nodes can be observed that d-separates (or blocks) all back-door paths from X to Y then Pr ( Y , Z ∣ do ( x ) ) = Pr ( Y , Z , X = x ) Pr ( X = x ∣ Z ) . {\displaystyle \Pr(Y,Z\mid {\text{do}}(x))={\frac {\Pr(Y,Z,X=x)}{\Pr(X=x\mid Z)}}.} A back-door path is one that ends with an arrow into X. Sets that satisfy the back-door criterion are called "sufficient" or "admissible." For example, the set Z = R is admissible for predicting the effect of S = T on G, because R d-separates the (only) back-door path S ← R → G. However, if S is not observed, no other set d-separates this path and the effect of turning the sprinkler on (S = T) on the grass (G) cannot be predicted from passive observations. In that case P(G | do(S = T)) is not "identified". This reflects the fact that, lacking interventional data, the observed dependence between S and G is due to a causal connection or is spurious (apparent dependence arising from a common cause, R). (see Simpson's paradox) To determine whether a causal relation is identified from an arbitrary Bayesian network with unobserved variables, one can use the three rules of "do-calculus" and test whether all do terms can be removed from the expression of that relation, thus confirming that the desired quantity is estimable from frequency data. Using a Bayesian network can save considerable amounts of memory over exhaustive probability tables, if the dependencies in the joint distribution are sparse. For example, a naive way of storing the conditional probabilities of 10 two-valued variables as a table requires storage space for 2 10 = 1024 {\displaystyle 2^{10}=1024} values. If no variable's local distribution depends on more than three parent variables, the Bayesian network representation stores at most 10 ⋅ 2 3 = 80 {\displaystyle 10\cdot 2^{3}=80} values. One advantage of Bayesian networks is that it is intuitively easier for a human to understand (a sparse set of) direct dependencies and local distributions than complete joint distributions. == Inference and learning == Bayesian networks perform three main inference tasks: Inferring unobserved variables Parameter learning for the probability distributions of each node in the network Structure learning of the graphical network === Inferring unobserved variables === Because a Bayesian network is a complete model for its variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. For example, the network can be used to update knowledge of the state of a subset of variables when other variables (the evidence variables) are observed. This process of computing the posterior distribution of variables given evidence is called probabilistic inference. The posterior gives a universal sufficient statistic for detection applications, when choosing values for the variable subset that minimize some expected loss function, for instance the probability of decision error. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to complex problems. The most common exact inference methods are: variable elimination, which eliminates (by integration or summation) the non-observed non-query variables one by one by distributing the sum over the prod