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  • Machine learning

    Machine learning

    Machine learning (ML) is a field of study in artificial intelligence concerned with the development and study of statistical algorithms that can learn from data and generalize to unseen data, and thus perform tasks without being explicitly programmed. Advances in the field of deep learning have allowed neural networks, a class of statistical algorithms, to surpass many previous machine learning approaches in performance. Statistics and mathematical optimisation methods compose the foundations of machine learning. Data mining is a related field of study, focusing on exploratory data analysis (EDA) through unsupervised learning. From a theoretical viewpoint, probably approximately correct learning provides a mathematical and statistical framework for describing machine learning. Most traditional machine learning and deep learning algorithms can be described as empirical risk minimisation under this framework. == History == The term machine learning was coined in 1959 by Arthur Samuel, an IBM employee and pioneer in the field of computer gaming and artificial intelligence. The synonym self-teaching computers was also used during this time period. The earliest machine learning program was introduced in the 1950s, when Samuel invented a computer program that calculated the chance of winning in checkers for each side, but the history of machine learning is rooted in decades of efforts to study human cognitive processes. In 1949, Canadian psychologist Donald Hebb published the book The Organization of Behavior, in which he introduced a theoretical neural structure formed by certain interactions among nerve cells. The Hebbian theory of neuron interaction set the groundwork for how many machine learning algorithms work, with connected artificial neurons changing the strength of their connections based on data. Other researchers who have studied human cognitive systems contributed to the modern machine learning technologies as well, including Walter Pitts and Warren McCulloch, who proposed the first mathematical model of neural networks including algorithms that mirror human thought processes. By the early 1960s, an experimental "learning machine" with punched tape memory, called Cybertron, had been developed by Raytheon Company to analyse sonar signals, electrocardiograms, and speech patterns using rudimentary reinforcement learning. It was repetitively "trained" by a human operator/teacher to recognise patterns and equipped with a "goof" button to cause it to reevaluate incorrect decisions. A representative book on research into machine learning during the 1960s was Nils Nilsson's book "Learning Machines", dealing mostly with machine learning for pattern classification. Interest related to pattern recognition continued into the 1970s, as described by Duda and Hart in 1973. In 1981, a report was given on using teaching strategies so that an artificial neural network learns to recognise 40 characters (26 letters, 10 digits, and 4 special symbols) from a computer terminal. Tom M. Mitchell provided a widely quoted, more formal definition of the algorithms studied in the machine learning field: "A computer program is said to learn from experience E with respect to some class of tasks T and performance measure P if its performance at tasks in T, as measured by P, improves with experience E." This definition of the tasks in which machine learning is concerned is fundamentally operational rather than defining the field in cognitive terms. This follows Alan Turing's proposal in his paper "Computing Machinery and Intelligence", in which the question, "Can machines think?", is replaced by asking whether machines can convincingly imitate a human in its responses to human-posed questions. In 2014 Ian Goodfellow and others introduced generative adversarial networks (GANs) which could produce realistic synthetic data. By 2016 AlphaGo had won against top human players in Go using reinforcement learning techniques. == Relationships to other fields == === Artificial intelligence === As a scientific endeavour, machine learning grew out of the quest for artificial intelligence (AI). In the early days of AI as an academic discipline, some researchers were interested in having machines learn from data. They attempted to approach the problem with various symbolic methods, as well as what were then termed "neural networks"; these were mostly perceptrons and other models that were later found to be reinventions of the generalised linear models of statistics. Probabilistic reasoning was also employed, especially in automated medical diagnosis. However, an increasing emphasis on the logical, knowledge-based approach caused a rift between AI and machine learning. Probabilistic systems were plagued by theoretical and practical problems of data acquisition and representation. By 1980, expert systems had come to dominate AI, and statistics was out of favour. Work on symbolic/knowledge-based learning continued within AI, leading to inductive logic programming (ILP), but the more statistical line of research was now outside the field of AI proper, in pattern recognition and information retrieval. Neural network research was abandoned by AI and computer science around the same time. This subfield, termed "connectionism", was continued by researchers from other disciplines, including John Hopfield, David Rumelhart, and Geoffrey Hinton. Their main success came in the mid-1980s with the reinvention of backpropagation. Machine learning (ML), reorganised and recognised as its own field, started to flourish in the 1990s. The field changed its goal from achieving artificial intelligence to tackling solvable problems of a practical nature. It shifted focus away from the symbolic approaches it had inherited from AI, and toward methods and models borrowed from statistics, fuzzy logic, and probability theory. === Data compression === === Data mining === Machine learning and data mining often employ the same methods and overlap significantly, but while machine learning focuses on prediction based on known properties learned from the training data, data mining focuses on the discovery of previously unknown properties in the data (this is the analysis step of knowledge discovery in databases). Data mining uses many machine learning methods, but with different goals; on the other hand, machine learning also employs data mining methods as "unsupervised learning" or as a preprocessing step to improve learner accuracy. Much of the confusion between these two research communities comes from the basic assumptions they work with: in machine learning, performance is usually evaluated with respect to the ability to reproduce known knowledge, while in knowledge discovery and data mining (KDD) the key task is the discovery of previously unknown knowledge. Evaluated with respect to known knowledge, an uninformed (unsupervised) method will easily be outperformed by other supervised methods, while in a typical KDD task, supervised methods cannot be used due to the unavailability of training data. Machine learning also has intimate ties to optimization: Many learning problems are formulated as minimisation of some loss function on a training set of examples. Loss functions express the discrepancy between the predictions of the model being trained and the actual problem instances (for example, in classification, one wants to assign a label to instances, and models are trained to correctly predict the preassigned labels of a set of examples). === Generalization === Characterizing the generalisation of various learning algorithms is an active topic of current research, especially for deep learning algorithms. === Statistics === Machine learning and statistics are closely related fields in terms of methods, but distinct in their principal goal: statistics draws population inferences from a sample, while machine learning finds generalisable predictive patterns. Conventional statistical analyses require the a priori selection of a model most suitable for the study data set. In addition, only significant or theoretically relevant variables based on previous experience are included for analysis. In contrast, machine learning is not built on a pre-structured model; rather, the data shape the model by detecting underlying patterns. The more variables (input) used to train the model, the more accurate the ultimate model will be. Leo Breiman distinguished two statistical modelling paradigms: the data model and the algorithmic model, wherein "algorithmic model" means more or less the machine learning algorithms like Random forest. Some statisticians have adopted methods from machine learning, producing the field of statistical learning. === Statistical physics === Analytical and computational techniques derived from deep-rooted physics of disordered systems can be extended to large-scale problems, including machine learning, e.g., to analyse the weight space of deep neural networks. Statistical physics is thus

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  • Frequent pattern discovery

    Frequent pattern discovery

    Frequent pattern discovery (or FP discovery, FP mining, or Frequent itemset mining) is part of knowledge discovery in databases, Massive Online Analysis, and data mining; it describes the task of finding the most frequent and relevant patterns in large datasets. The concept was first introduced for mining transaction databases. Frequent patterns are defined as subsets (itemsets, subsequences, or substructures) that appear in a data set with frequency no less than a user-specified or auto-determined threshold. == Techniques == Techniques for FP mining include: market basket analysis cross-marketing catalog design clustering classification recommendation systems For the most part, FP discovery can be done using association rule learning with particular algorithms Eclat, FP-growth and the Apriori algorithm. Other strategies include: Frequent subtree mining Structure mining Sequential pattern mining and respective specific techniques. Implementations exist for various machine learning systems or modules like MLlib for Apache Spark.

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  • PVLV

    PVLV

    The primary value learned value (PVLV) model is a possible explanation for the reward-predictive firing properties of dopamine (DA) neurons. It simulates behavioral and neural data on Pavlovian conditioning and the midbrain dopaminergic neurons that fire in proportion to unexpected rewards. It is an alternative to the temporal-differences (TD) algorithm. It is used as part of Leabra.

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  • Geographical cluster

    Geographical cluster

    A geographical cluster is a localized anomaly, usually an excess of something given the distribution or variation of something else. Often it is considered as an incidence rate that is unusual in that there is more of some variable than might be expected. Examples would include: a local excess disease rate, a crime hot spot, areas of high unemployment, accident blackspots, unusually high positive residuals from a model, high concentrations of flora or fauna, physical features or events like earthquake epicenters etc... Identifying these extreme regions may be useful in that there could be implicit geographical associations with other variables that can be identified and would be of interest. Pattern detection via the identification of such geographical clusters is a very simple and generic form of geographical analysis that has many applications in many different contexts. The emphasis is on localized clustering or patterning because this may well contain the most useful information. A geographical cluster is different from a high concentration as it is generally second order, involving the factoring in of the distribution of something else. == Geographical cluster detection == Identifying geographical clusters can be an important stage in a geographical analysis. Mapping the locations of unusual concentrations may help identify causes of these. Some techniques include the Geographical Analysis Machine and Besag and Newell's cluster detection method.

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  • Catalog server

    Catalog server

    A catalog server provides a single point of access that allows users to centrally search for information across a distributed network. In other words, it indexes databases, files and information across large network and allows keywords, Boolean and other searches. If you need to provide a comprehensive searching service for your intranet, extranet or even the Internet, a catalog server is a standard solution.

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  • Prefrontal cortex basal ganglia working memory

    Prefrontal cortex basal ganglia working memory

    Prefrontal cortex basal ganglia working memory (PBWM) is an algorithm that models working memory in the prefrontal cortex and the basal ganglia. It can be compared to long short-term memory (LSTM) in functionality, but is more biologically explainable. It uses the primary value learned value model to train prefrontal cortex working-memory updating system, based on the biology of the prefrontal cortex and basal ganglia. It is used as part of the Leabra framework and was implemented in Emergent in 2019. == Abstract == The prefrontal cortex has long been thought to subserve both working memory (the holding of information online for processing) and "executive" functions (deciding how to manipulate working memory and perform processing). Although many computational models of working memory have been developed, the mechanistic basis of executive function remains elusive. PBWM is a computational model of the prefrontal cortex to control both itself and other brain areas in a strategic, task-appropriate manner. These learning mechanisms are based on subcortical structures in the midbrain, basal ganglia and amygdala, which together form an actor/critic architecture. The critic system learns which prefrontal representations are task-relevant and trains the actor, which in turn provides a dynamic gating mechanism for controlling working memory updating. Computationally, the learning mechanism is designed to simultaneously solve the temporal and structural credit assignment problems. The model's performance compares favorably with standard backpropagation-based temporal learning mechanisms on the challenging 1-2-AX working memory task, and other benchmark working memory tasks. == Model == First, there are multiple separate stripes (groups of units) in the prefrontal cortex and striatum layers. Each stripe can be independently updated, such that this system can remember several different things at the same time, each with a different "updating policy" of when memories are updated and maintained. The active maintenance of the memory is in prefrontal cortex (PFC), and the updating signals (and updating policy more generally) come from the striatum units (a subset of basal ganglia units). PVLV provides reinforcement learning signals to train up the dynamic gating system in the basal ganglia. === Sensory input and motor output === The sensory input is connected to the posterior cortex which is connected to the motor output. The sensory input is also linked to the PVLV system. === Posterior cortex === The posterior cortex form the hidden layers of the input/output mapping. The PFC is connected with the posterior cortex to contextualize this input/output mapping. === PFC === The PFC (for output gating) has a localist one-to-one representation of the input units for every stripe. Thus, you can look at these PFC representations and see directly what the network is maintaining. The PFC maintains the working memory needed to perform the task. === Striatum === This is the dynamic gating system representing the striatum units of the basal ganglia. Every even-index unit within a stripe represents "Go", while the odd-index units represent "NoGo." The Go units cause updating of the PFC, while the NoGo units cause the PFC to maintain its existing memory representation. There are groups of units for every stripe. In the PBWM model in Emergent, the matrices represent the striatum. === PVLV === All of these layers are part of PVLV system. The PVLV system controls the dopaminergic modulation of the basal ganglia (BG). Thus, BG/PVLV form an actor-critic architecture where the PVLV system learns when to update. ==== SNrThal ==== SNrThal represents the substantia nigra pars reticulata (SNr) and the associated area of the thalamus, which produce a competition among the Go/NoGo units within a given stripe and mediates competition using k-winners-take-all dynamics. If there is more overall Go activity in a given stripe, then the associated SNrThal unit gets activated, and it drives updating in PFC. For every stripe, there is one unit in SNrThal. ==== VTA and SNc ==== Ventral tegmental area (VTA) and substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) are part of the dopamine layer. This layer models midbrain dopamine neurons. They control the dopaminergic modulation of the basal ganglia.

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  • ImageNets

    ImageNets

    ImageNets is an open source framework for rapid prototyping of machine vision algorithms, developed by the Institute of Automation. == Description == ImageNets is an open source and platform independent (Windows & Linux) framework for rapid prototyping of machine vision algorithms. With the GUI ImageNet Designer, no programming knowledge is required to perform operations on images. A configured ImageNet can be loaded and executed from C++ code without the need for loading the ImageNet Designer GUI to achieve higher execution performance. == History == ImageNets was developed by the Institute of Automation, University of Bremen, Germany. The software was first publicly released in 2010. Originally, ImageNets was developed for the Care-Providing Robot FRIEND but it can be used for a wide range of computer vision applications.

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  • Fitness approximation

    Fitness approximation

    Fitness approximation aims to approximate the objective or fitness functions in evolutionary optimization by building up machine learning models based on data collected from numerical simulations or physical experiments. The machine learning models for fitness approximation are also known as meta-models or surrogates, and evolutionary optimization based on approximated fitness evaluations are also known as surrogate-assisted evolutionary approximation. Fitness approximation in evolutionary optimization can be seen as a sub-area of data-driven evolutionary optimization. == Approximate models in function optimization == === Motivation === In many real-world optimization problems including engineering problems, the number of fitness function evaluations needed to obtain a good solution dominates the optimization cost. In order to obtain efficient optimization algorithms, it is crucial to use prior information gained during the optimization process. Conceptually, a natural approach to utilizing the known prior information is building a model of the fitness function to assist in the selection of candidate solutions for evaluation. A variety of techniques for constructing such a model, often also referred to as surrogates, metamodels or approximation models – for computationally expensive optimization problems have been considered. === Approaches === Common approaches to constructing approximate models based on learning and interpolation from known fitness values of a small population include: Low-degree polynomials and regression models Fourier surrogate modeling Artificial neural networks including Multilayer perceptrons Radial basis function network Support vector machines Due to the limited number of training samples and high dimensionality encountered in engineering design optimization, constructing a globally valid approximate model remains difficult. As a result, evolutionary algorithms using such approximate fitness functions may converge to local optima. Therefore, it can be beneficial to selectively use the original fitness function together with the approximate model.

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  • Natural Language Toolkit

    Natural Language Toolkit

    The Natural Language Toolkit, or more commonly NLTK, is a suite of libraries and programs for symbolic and statistical natural language processing (NLP) for English written in the Python programming language. It supports classification, tokenization, stemming, tagging, parsing, and semantic reasoning functionalities. It was developed by Steven Bird and Edward Loper in the Department of Computer and Information Science at the University of Pennsylvania. NLTK includes graphical demonstrations and sample data. It is accompanied by a book that explains the underlying concepts behind the language processing tasks supported by the toolkit, plus a cookbook. NLTK is intended to support research and teaching in NLP or closely related areas, including empirical linguistics, cognitive science, artificial intelligence, information retrieval, and machine learning. NLTK has been used successfully as a teaching tool, as an individual study tool, and as a platform for prototyping and building research systems. == Library highlights == Discourse representation Lexical analysis: Word and text tokenizer n-gram and collocations Part-of-speech tagger Tree model and Text chunker for capturing Named-entity recognition

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  • Homogeneity blockmodeling

    Homogeneity blockmodeling

    In mathematics applied to analysis of social structures, homogeneity blockmodeling is an approach in blockmodeling, which is best suited for a preliminary or main approach to valued networks, when a prior knowledge about these networks is not available. This is because homogeneity blockmodeling emphasizes the similarity of link (tie) strengths within the blocks over the pattern of links. In this approach, tie (link) values (or statistical data computed on them) are assumed to be equal (homogenous) within blocks. This approach to the generalized blockmodeling of valued networks was first proposed by Aleš Žiberna in 2007 with the basic idea, "that the inconsistency of an empirical block with its ideal block can be measured by within block variability of appropriate values". The newly–formed ideal blocks, which are appropriate for blockmodeling of valued networks, are then presented together with the definitions of their block inconsistencies. Similar approach to the homogeneity blockmodeling, dealing with direct approach for structural equivalence, was previously suggested by Stephen P. Borgatti and Martin G. Everett (1992).

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  • Ilastik

    Ilastik

    ilastik is free open source software for image classification and segmentation. No previous experience in image processing is required to run the software. Since 2018 ilastik is further developed and maintained by Anna Kreshuk's group at European Molecular Biology Laboratory. == Features == ilastik allows user to annotate an arbitrary number of classes in images with a mouse interface. Using these user annotations and the generic (nonlinear) image features, the user can train a random forest classifier. Trained ilastik classifiers can be applied new data not included in the training set in ilastik via its batch processing functionality, or without using the graphical user interface, in headless mode. ilastik can be integrated into various related tools: Pre-trained workflows can be executed directly from ImageJ/Fiji using the ilastik-ImageJ plugin. Pre-trained ilastik Pixel Classification workflows can be run directly in Python with the ilastik Python package, which is available via conda. ilastik has a CellProfiler module to use ilastik classifiers to process images within a CellProfiler framework. == History == ilastik was first released in 2011 by scientists at the Heidelberg Collaboratory for Image Processing (HCI), University of Heidelberg. == Application == The Interactive Learning and Segmentation Toolkit Carving Cell classification and neuron classification Synapse detection Cell tracking Neural Network Classification == Resources == ilastik project is hosted on GitHub. It is a collaborative project, any contributions such as comments, bug reports, bug fixes or code contributions are welcome. The ilastik team can be contacted for user support on the image.sc forum.

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  • Self-play

    Self-play

    Self-play is a technique for improving the performance of reinforcement learning agents. Intuitively, agents learn to improve their performance by playing "against themselves". == Definition and motivation == In multi-agent reinforcement learning experiments, researchers try to optimize the performance of a learning agent on a given task, in cooperation or competition with one or more agents. These agents learn by trial-and-error, and researchers may choose to have the learning algorithm play the role of two or more of the different agents. When successfully executed, this technique has a double advantage: It provides a straightforward way to determine the actions of the other agents, resulting in a meaningful challenge. It increases the amount of experience that can be used to improve the policy, by a factor of two or more, since the viewpoints of each of the different agents can be used for learning. Czarnecki et al argue that most of the games that people play for fun are "Games of Skill", meaning games whose space of all possible strategies looks like a spinning top. In more detail, we can partition the space of strategies into sets L 1 , L 2 , . . . , L n {\displaystyle L_{1},L_{2},...,L_{n}} , such that any i < j , π i ∈ L i , π j ∈ L j {\displaystyle i Read more →

  • Automation in construction

    Automation in construction

    Automation in construction is the combination of methods, processes, and systems that allow for greater machine autonomy in construction activities. Construction automation may have multiple goals, including but not limited to, reducing jobsite injuries, decreasing activity completion times, and assisting with quality control and quality assurance. Some systems may be fielded as a direct response to increasing skilled labor shortages in some countries. Opponents claim that increased automation may lead to less construction jobs and that software leaves heavy equipment vulnerable to hackers. Research insights on this subject are today published in several journals such as Automation in Construction by Elsevier. == Uses of automation in construction == Equipment control and management: Automation can be used to control and monitor construction equipment, such as cranes, excavators, and bulldozers. Material handling: Automated systems can be used to handle, transport, and place materials such as concrete, bricks, and stones. Surveying: Automated survey equipment and drones can be used to collect and analyze data on construction sites. Quality control: Automated systems can be used to monitor and control the quality of materials and construction processes. Safety management: Automated systems can be used to monitor and control safety conditions on construction sites. Scheduling and planning: Automated systems can be used to manage schedules, resources, and costs. Waste management: Automated systems can be used to manage and dispose of waste materials generated during construction. 3D printing: Automated 3D printing can be used to create prototypes, models, and even full-scale building components. == Autonomous heavy equipment == Advances in sensors, machine learning, and autonomous vehicle technology have led to the development of self-operating construction equipment and retrofit systems designed to automate excavators, bulldozers, tracked loaders, skid steer loaders, and haul trucks, allowing them to perform tasks with limited human supervision. Since 2017, tech companies have developed autonomous or semi-autonomous retrofit kits that can be installed on existing construction machinery. Examples include Bedrock Robotics, Built Robotics, and SafeAI, which develop sensor and software systems that enable excavators and other earthmoving machines to operate with varying degrees of autonomy. Major equipment manufacturers have also introduced autonomous capabilities: Caterpillar and John Deere have developed autonomous or semi-autonomous systems for construction and mining equipment, including haul trucks and earthmoving machines. == Transportation сonstruction == Kratos Defense & Security Solutions fielded the world’s first Autonomous Truck-Mounted Attenuator (ATMA) in 2017, in conjunction with Royal Truck & Equipment. == Benefits of automation in construction == The use of automation in construction has become increasingly prevalent in recent years due to its numerous benefits. Automation in construction refers to the use of machinery, software, and other technologies to perform tasks that were previously done manually by workers. One of the most significant benefits of automation in construction is increased productivity. Automation can help speed up construction processes, reduce project completion times, and improve overall efficiency. For example, using automated machinery for tasks such as concrete pouring, bricklaying, and welding can significantly increase the speed and accuracy of these tasks, allowing for more work to be completed in a shorter amount of time. Another benefit of automation in construction is improved safety. By automating tasks that are hazardous to workers, such as demolition or working at height, companies can reduce the risk of accidents and injuries on site. Automation can also help to reduce worker fatigue, which can be a significant factor in accidents and mistakes. Overall, the use of automation in construction can improve productivity, reduce costs, increase safety, and improve the quality of construction projects. As technology continues to advance, the use of automation is likely to become even more prevalent in the construction industry.

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  • Probit model

    Probit model

    In statistics, a probit model is a type of regression where the dependent variable can take only two values, for example married or not married. The word is a portmanteau, coming from probability + unit. The purpose of the model is to estimate the probability that an observation with particular characteristics will fall into a specific one of the categories; moreover, classifying observations based on their predicted probabilities is a type of binary classification model. A probit model is a popular specification for a binary response model. As such it treats the same set of problems as does logistic regression using similar techniques. When viewed in the generalized linear model framework, the probit model employs a probit link function. It is most often estimated using the maximum likelihood procedure, such an estimation being called a probit regression. == Conceptual framework == Suppose a response variable Y is binary, that is it can have only two possible outcomes which we will denote as 1 and 0. For example, Y may represent presence/absence of a certain condition, success/failure of some device, answer yes/no on a survey, etc. We also have a vector of regressors X, which are assumed to influence the outcome Y. Specifically, we assume that the model takes the form P ( Y = 1 ∣ X ) = Φ ( X T β ) , {\displaystyle P(Y=1\mid X)=\Phi (X^{\operatorname {T} }\beta ),} where P is the probability and Φ {\displaystyle \Phi } is the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the standard normal distribution. The parameters β are typically estimated by maximum likelihood. It is possible to motivate the probit model as a latent variable model. Suppose there exists an auxiliary random variable Y ∗ = X T β + ε , {\displaystyle Y^{\ast }=X^{T}\beta +\varepsilon ,} where ε ~ N(0, 1). Then Y can be viewed as an indicator for whether this latent variable is positive: Y = { 1 Y ∗ > 0 0 otherwise } = { 1 X T β + ε > 0 0 otherwise } {\displaystyle Y=\left.{\begin{cases}1&Y^{}>0\\0&{\text{otherwise}}\end{cases}}\right\}=\left.{\begin{cases}1&X^{\operatorname {T} }\beta +\varepsilon >0\\0&{\text{otherwise}}\end{cases}}\right\}} The use of the standard normal distribution causes no loss of generality compared with the use of a normal distribution with an arbitrary mean and standard deviation, because adding a fixed amount to the mean can be compensated by subtracting the same amount from the intercept, and multiplying the standard deviation by a fixed amount can be compensated by multiplying the weights by the same amount. To see that the two models are equivalent, note that P ( Y = 1 ∣ X ) = P ( Y ∗ > 0 ) = P ( X T β + ε > 0 ) = P ( ε > − X T β ) = P ( ε < X T β ) by symmetry of the normal distribution = Φ ( X T β ) {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}P(Y=1\mid X)&=P(Y^{\ast }>0)\\&=P(X^{\operatorname {T} }\beta +\varepsilon >0)\\&=P(\varepsilon >-X^{\operatorname {T} }\beta )\\&=P(\varepsilon 0 {\displaystyle t,\lim _{n\rightarrow \infty }n_{t}/n=c_{t}>0} . Denote p ^ t = r t / n t {\displaystyle {\hat {p}}_{t}=r_{t}/n_{t}} σ ^ t 2 = 1 n t p ^ t ( 1 − p ^ t ) φ 2 ( Φ − 1 ( p ^ t ) ) {\displaystyle {\hat {\sigma }}_{t}^{2}={\frac {1}{n_{t}}}{\frac {{\hat {p}}_{t}(1-{\hat {p}}_{t})}{\varphi ^{2}{\big (}\Phi ^{-1}({\hat {p}}_{t}){\big )}}}} Then Berkson's minimum chi-square estimator is a generalized least squares estimator in a regression of Φ − 1 ( p ^ t ) {\displaystyle \Phi ^{-1}({\hat {p}}_{t})} on x ( t ) {\displaystyle x_{(t)}} with weights σ ^ t − 2 {\displaystyle {\hat {\sigma }}_{t}^{-2}} : β ^ = ( ∑ t = 1 T σ ^ t − 2 x ( t ) x ( t ) T ) − 1 ∑ t = 1 T σ ^ t − 2 x ( t ) Φ − 1 ( p ^ t ) {\displaystyle {\hat {\beta }}={\Bigg (}\sum _{t=1}^{T}{\hat {\sigma }}_{t}^{-2}x_{(t)}x_{(t)}^{\operatorname {T} }{\Bigg )}^{-1}\sum _{t=1}^{T}{\hat {\sigma }}_{t}^{-2}x_{(t)}\Phi ^{-1}({\hat {p}}_{t})} It can be shown that this estimator is consistent (as n→∞ and T fixed), asymptotically normal and efficient. Its advantage is the presence of a closed-form formula for the estimator. However, it is only meaningful to carry out this analysis when individual observations are not available, only their aggregated counts r t {\displaystyle r_{t}} , n t {\disp

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  • Jackknife variance estimates for random forest

    Jackknife variance estimates for random forest

    In statistics, jackknife variance estimates for random forest are a way to estimate the variance in random forest models, in order to eliminate the bootstrap effects. == Jackknife variance estimates == The sampling variance of bagged learners is: V ( x ) = V a r [ θ ^ ∞ ( x ) ] {\displaystyle V(x)=Var[{\hat {\theta }}^{\infty }(x)]} Jackknife estimates can be considered to eliminate the bootstrap effects. The jackknife variance estimator is defined as: V ^ j = n − 1 n ∑ i = 1 n ( θ ^ ( − i ) − θ ¯ ) 2 {\displaystyle {\hat {V}}_{j}={\frac {n-1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}({\hat {\theta }}_{(-i)}-{\overline {\theta }})^{2}} In some classification problems, when random forest is used to fit models, jackknife estimated variance is defined as: V ^ j = n − 1 n ∑ i = 1 n ( t ¯ ( − i ) ⋆ ( x ) − t ¯ ⋆ ( x ) ) 2 {\displaystyle {\hat {V}}_{j}={\frac {n-1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}({\overline {t}}_{(-i)}^{\star }(x)-{\overline {t}}^{\star }(x))^{2}} Here, t ⋆ {\displaystyle t^{\star }} denotes a decision tree after training, t ( − i ) ⋆ {\displaystyle t_{(-i)}^{\star }} denotes the result based on samples without i t h {\displaystyle ith} observation. == Examples == E-mail spam problem is a common classification problem, in this problem, 57 features are used to classify spam e-mail and non-spam e-mail. Applying IJ-U variance formula to evaluate the accuracy of models with m=15,19 and 57. The results shows in paper( Confidence Intervals for Random Forests: The jackknife and the Infinitesimal Jackknife ) that m = 57 random forest appears to be quite unstable, while predictions made by m=5 random forest appear to be quite stable, this results is corresponding to the evaluation made by error percentage, in which the accuracy of model with m=5 is high and m=57 is low. Here, accuracy is measured by error rate, which is defined as: E r r o r R a t e = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N ∑ j = 1 M y i j , {\displaystyle ErrorRate={\frac {1}{N}}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\sum _{j=1}^{M}y_{ij},} Here N is also the number of samples, M is the number of classes, y i j {\displaystyle y_{ij}} is the indicator function which equals 1 when i t h {\displaystyle ith} observation is in class j, equals 0 when in other classes. No probability is considered here. There is another method which is similar to error rate to measure accuracy: l o g l o s s = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N ∑ j = 1 M y i j l o g ( p i j ) {\displaystyle logloss={\frac {1}{N}}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\sum _{j=1}^{M}y_{ij}log(p_{ij})} Here N is the number of samples, M is the number of classes, y i j {\displaystyle y_{ij}} is the indicator function which equals 1 when i t h {\displaystyle ith} observation is in class j, equals 0 when in other classes. p i j {\displaystyle p_{ij}} is the predicted probability of i t h {\displaystyle ith} observation in class j {\displaystyle j} .This method is used in Kaggle These two methods are very similar. == Modification for bias == When using Monte Carlo MSEs for estimating V I J ∞ {\displaystyle V_{IJ}^{\infty }} and V J ∞ {\displaystyle V_{J}^{\infty }} , a problem about the Monte Carlo bias should be considered, especially when n is large, the bias is getting large: E [ V ^ I J B ] − V ^ I J ∞ ≈ n ∑ b = 1 B ( t b ⋆ − t ¯ ⋆ ) 2 B {\displaystyle E[{\hat {V}}_{IJ}^{B}]-{\hat {V}}_{IJ}^{\infty }\approx {\frac {n\sum _{b=1}^{B}(t_{b}^{\star }-{\bar {t}}^{\star })^{2}}{B}}} To eliminate this influence, bias-corrected modifications are suggested: V ^ I J − U B = V ^ I J B − n ∑ b = 1 B ( t b ⋆ − t ¯ ⋆ ) 2 B {\displaystyle {\hat {V}}_{IJ-U}^{B}={\hat {V}}_{IJ}^{B}-{\frac {n\sum _{b=1}^{B}(t_{b}^{\star }-{\bar {t}}^{\star })^{2}}{B}}} V ^ J − U B = V ^ J B − ( e − 1 ) n ∑ b = 1 B ( t b ⋆ − t ¯ ⋆ ) 2 B {\displaystyle {\hat {V}}_{J-U}^{B}={\hat {V}}_{J}^{B}-(e-1){\frac {n\sum _{b=1}^{B}(t_{b}^{\star }-{\bar {t}}^{\star })^{2}}{B}}}

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