AI Chatbot Quill

AI Chatbot Quill — independent reviews, comparisons, pricing and step-by-step guides on Aizhi.

  • Tesla Dojo

    Tesla Dojo

    Tesla Dojo is a series of supercomputers designed and built by Tesla for computer vision video processing and recognition. It was used for training Tesla's machine learning models to improve its Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver-assistance system. It went into production in July 2023. Dojo's goal was to efficiently process millions of terabytes of video data captured from real-life driving situations from Tesla's 4+ million cars. This goal led to a considerably different architecture than conventional supercomputer designs. In August 2025, Bloomberg News reported that the Dojo project had been disbanded, though it was restarted in January 2026. == History == Tesla operates several massively parallel computing clusters for developing its Autopilot advanced driver assistance system. Its primary unnamed cluster using 5,760 Nvidia A100 graphics processing units (GPUs) was touted by Andrej Karpathy in 2021 at the fourth International Joint Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CCVPR 2021) to be "roughly the number five supercomputer in the world" at approximately 81.6 petaflops, based on scaling the performance of the Nvidia Selene supercomputer, which uses similar components. However, the performance of the primary Tesla GPU cluster has been disputed, as it was not clear if this was measured using single-precision or double-precision floating point numbers (FP32 or FP64). Tesla also operates a second 4,032 GPU cluster for training and a third 1,752 GPU cluster for automatic labeling of objects. The primary unnamed Tesla GPU cluster has been used for processing one million video clips, each ten seconds long, taken from Tesla Autopilot cameras operating in Tesla cars in the real world, running at 36 frames per second. Collectively, these video clips contained six billion object labels, with depth and velocity data; the total size of the data set was 1.5 petabytes. This data set was used for training a neural network intended to help Autopilot computers in Tesla cars understand roads. By August 2022, Tesla had upgraded the primary GPU cluster to 7,360 GPUs. Dojo was first mentioned by Elon Musk in April 2019 during Tesla's "Autonomy Investor Day". In August 2020, Musk stated it was "about a year away" due to power and thermal issues. Dojo was officially announced at Tesla's Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day on August 19, 2021. Tesla revealed details of the D1 chip and its plans for "Project Dojo", a datacenter that would house 3,000 D1 chips; the first "Training Tile" had been completed and delivered the week before. In October 2021, Tesla released a "Dojo Technology" whitepaper describing the Configurable Float8 (CFloat8) and Configurable Float16 (CFloat16) floating point formats and arithmetic operations as an extension of Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standard 754. At the follow-up AI Day in September 2022, Tesla announced it had built several System Trays and one Cabinet. During a test, the company stated that Project Dojo drew 2.3 megawatts (MW) of power before tripping a local San Jose, California power substation. At the time, Tesla was assembling one Training Tile per day. In August 2023, Tesla powered on Dojo for production use as well as a new training cluster configured with 10,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs. In January 2024, Musk described Dojo as "a long shot worth taking because the payoff is potentially very high. But it's not something that is a high probability." In June 2024, Musk explained that ongoing construction work at Gigafactory Texas is for a computing cluster claiming that it is planned to comprise an even mix of "Tesla AI" and Nvidia/other hardware with a total thermal design power of at first 130 MW and eventually exceeding 500 MW. In August 2025, Bloomberg News reported that the Dojo project was disbanded, though Musk announced it would be restarted in January 2026 with a new chip iteration. == Technical architecture == The fundamental unit of the Dojo supercomputer is the D1 chip, designed by a team at Tesla led by ex-AMD CPU designer Ganesh Venkataramanan, including Emil Talpes, Debjit Das Sarma, Douglas Williams, Bill Chang, and Rajiv Kurian. The D1 chip is manufactured by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) using 7 nanometer (nm) semiconductor nodes, has 50 billion transistors and a large die size of 645 mm2 (1.0 square inch). Updating at Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day in 2022, Tesla announced that Dojo would scale by deploying multiple ExaPODs, in which there would be: 10 Cabinets per ExaPOD (1,062,000 cores, 3,000 D1 chips) 2 System Trays per Cabinet (106,200 cores, 300 D1 chips) 6 Training Tiles per System Tray (53,100 cores, along with host interface hardware) 25 D1 chips per Training Tile (8,850 cores) 354 computing cores per D1 chip According to Venkataramanan, Tesla's senior director of Autopilot hardware, Dojo will have more than an exaflop (a million teraflops) of computing power. For comparison, according to Nvidia, in August 2021, the (pre-Dojo) Tesla AI-training center used 720 nodes, each with eight Nvidia A100 Tensor Core GPUs for 5,760 GPUs in total, providing up to 1.8 exaflops of performance. === D1 chip === Each node (computing core) of the D1 processing chip is a general purpose 64-bit CPU with a superscalar core. It supports internal instruction-level parallelism, and includes simultaneous multithreading (SMT). It doesn't support virtual memory and uses limited memory protection mechanisms. Dojo software/applications manage chip resources. The D1 instruction set supports both 64-bit scalar and 64-byte single instruction, multiple data (SIMD) vector instructions. The integer unit mixes reduced instruction set computer (RISC-V) and custom instructions, supporting 8, 16, 32, or 64 bit integers. The custom vector math unit is optimized for machine learning kernels and supports multiple data formats, with a mix of precisions and numerical ranges, many of which are compiler composable. Up to 16 vector formats can be used simultaneously. ==== Node ==== Each D1 node uses a 32-byte fetch window holding up to eight instructions. These instructions are fed to an eight-wide decoder which supports two threads per cycle, followed by a four-wide, four-way SMT scalar scheduler that has two integer units, two address units, and one register file per thread. Vector instructions are passed further down the pipeline to a dedicated vector scheduler with two-way SMT, which feeds either a 64-byte SIMD unit or four 8×8×4 matrix multiplication units. The network on-chip (NOC) router links cores into a two-dimensional mesh network. It can send one packet in and one packet out in all four directions to/from each neighbor node, along with one 64-byte read and one 64-byte write to local SRAM per clock cycle. Hardware native operations transfer data, semaphores and barrier constraints across memories and CPUs. System-wide double data rate 4 (DDR4) synchronous dynamic random-access memory (SDRAM) memory works like bulk storage. ==== Memory ==== Each core has a 1.25 megabytes (MB) of SRAM main memory. Load and store speeds reach 400 gigabytes (GB) per second and 270 GB/sec, respectively. The chip has explicit core-to-core data transfer instructions. Each SRAM has a unique list parser that feeds a pair of decoders and a gather engine that feeds the vector register file, which together can directly transfer information across nodes. ==== Die ==== Twelve nodes (cores) are grouped into a local block. Nodes are arranged in an 18×20 array on a single die, of which 354 cores are available for applications. The die runs at 2 gigahertz (GHz) and totals 440 MB of SRAM (360 cores × 1.25 MB/core). It reaches 376 teraflops using 16-bit brain floating point (BF16) numbers or using configurable 8-bit floating point (CFloat8) numbers, which is a Tesla proposal, and 22 teraflops at FP32. Each die comprises 576 bi-directional serializer/deserializer (SerDes) channels along the perimeter to link to other dies, and moves 8 TB/sec across all four die edges. Each D1 chip has a thermal design power of approximately 400 watts. === Training Tile === The water-cooled Training Tile packages 25 D1 chips into a 5×5 array. Each tile supports 36 TB/sec of aggregate bandwidth via 40 input/output (I/O) chips - half the bandwidth of the chip mesh network. Each tile supports 10 TB/sec of on-tile bandwidth. Each tile has 11 GB of SRAM memory (25 D1 chips × 360 cores/D1 × 1.25 MB/core). Each tile achieves 9 petaflops at BF16/CFloat8 precision (25 D1 chips × 376 TFLOP/D1). Each tile consumes 15 kilowatts; 288 amperes at 52 volts. === System Tray === Six tiles are aggregated into a System Tray, which is integrated with a host interface. Each host interface includes 512 x86 cores, providing a Linux-based user environment. Previously, the Dojo System Tray was known as the Training Matrix, which includes six Training Tiles, 20 Dojo Interface Processor cards across four host servers, and Ethernet-l

    Read more →
  • Multi-surface method

    Multi-surface method

    The multi-surface method (MSM) is a form of decision making using the concept of piecewise-linear separability of datasets to categorize data. == Introduction == Two datasets are linearly separable if their convex hulls do not intersect. The method may be formulated as a feedforward neural network with weights that are trained via linear programming. Comparisons between neural networks trained with the MSM versus backpropagation show MSM is better able to classify data. The decision problem associated linear program for the MSM is NP-complete. == Mathematical formulation == Given two finite disjoint point sets A , B ∈ R n {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A,B}}\in \mathbb {R} ^{n}} , find a discriminant, f : R n → R {\displaystyle f:\mathbb {R} ^{n}\to \mathbb {R} } such that f ( A ) > 0 , f ( B ) ≤ 0 {\displaystyle f({\mathcal {A}})>0,f({\mathcal {B}})\leq 0} . If the intersection of convex hulls of the two sets is the empty set, then it is possible to use a single linear program to obtain a linear discriminant of the form, f ( x ) = c x + γ {\displaystyle f(x)=cx+\gamma } . Usually, in real applications, the sets' convex hulls do intersect, and a (often non-convex) piecewise-linear discriminant can be used, through the use of several linear programs.

    Read more →
  • Farthest-first traversal

    Farthest-first traversal

    In computational geometry, the farthest-first traversal of a compact metric space is a sequence of points in the space, where the first point is selected arbitrarily and each successive point is as far as possible from the set of previously-selected points. The same concept can also be applied to a finite set of geometric points, by restricting the selected points to belong to the set or equivalently by considering the finite metric space generated by these points. For a finite metric space or finite set of geometric points, the resulting sequence forms a permutation of the points, also known as the greedy permutation. Every prefix of a farthest-first traversal provides a set of points that is widely spaced and close to all remaining points. More precisely, no other set of equally many points can be spaced more than twice as widely, and no other set of equally many points can be less than half as far to its farthest remaining point. In part because of these properties, farthest-point traversals have many applications, including the approximation of the traveling salesman problem and the metric k-center problem. They may be constructed in polynomial time, or (for low-dimensional Euclidean spaces) approximated in near-linear time. == Definition and properties == A farthest-first traversal is a sequence of points in a compact metric space, with each point appearing at most once. If the space is finite, each point appears exactly once, and the traversal is a permutation of all of the points in the space. The first point of the sequence may be any point in the space. Each point p after the first must have the maximum possible distance to the set of points earlier than p in the sequence, where the distance from a point to a set is defined as the minimum of the pairwise distances to points in the set. A given space may have many different farthest-first traversals, depending both on the choice of the first point in the sequence (which may be any point in the space) and on ties for the maximum distance among later choices. Farthest-point traversals may be characterized by the following properties. Fix a number k, and consider the prefix formed by the first k points of the farthest-first traversal of any metric space. Let r be the distance between the final point of the prefix and the other points in the prefix. Then this subset has the following two properties: All pairs of the selected points are at distance at least r from each other, and All points of the metric space are at distance at most r from the subset. Conversely any sequence having these properties, for all choices of k, must be a farthest-first traversal. These are the two defining properties of a Delone set, so each prefix of the farthest-first traversal forms a Delone set. == Applications == Rosenkrantz, Stearns & Lewis (1977) used the farthest-first traversal to define the farthest-insertion heuristic for the travelling salesman problem. This heuristic finds approximate solutions to the travelling salesman problem by building up a tour on a subset of points, adding one point at a time to the tour in the ordering given by a farthest-first traversal. To add each point to the tour, one edge of the previous tour is broken and replaced by a pair of edges through the added point, in the cheapest possible way. Although Rosenkrantz et al. prove only a logarithmic approximation ratio for this method, they show that in practice it often works better than other insertion methods with better provable approximation ratios. Later, the same sequence of points was popularized by Gonzalez (1985), who used it as part of greedy approximation algorithms for two problems in clustering, in which the goal is to partition a set of points into k clusters. One of the two problems that Gonzalez solve in this way seeks to minimize the maximum diameter of a cluster, while the other, known as the metric k-center problem, seeks to minimize the maximum radius, the distance from a chosen central point of a cluster to the farthest point from it in the same cluster. For instance, the k-center problem can be used to model the placement of fire stations within a city, in order to ensure that every address within the city can be reached quickly by a fire truck. For both clustering problems, Gonzalez chooses a set of k cluster centers by selecting the first k points of a farthest-first traversal, and then creates clusters by assigning each input point to the nearest cluster center. If r is the distance from the set of k selected centers to the next point at position k + 1 in the traversal, then with this clustering every point is within distance r of its center and every cluster has diameter at most 2r. However, the subset of k centers together with the next point are all at distance at least r from each other, and any k-clustering would put some two of these points into a single cluster, with one of them at distance at least r/2 from its center and with diameter at least r. Thus, Gonzalez's heuristic gives an approximation ratio of 2 for both clustering problems. Gonzalez's heuristic was independently rediscovered for the metric k-center problem by Dyer & Frieze (1985), who applied it more generally to weighted k-center problems. Another paper on the k-center problem from the same time, Hochbaum & Shmoys (1985), achieves the same approximation ratio of 2, but its techniques are different. Nevertheless, Gonzalez's heuristic, and the name "farthest-first traversal", are often incorrectly attributed to Hochbaum and Shmoys. For both the min-max diameter clustering problem and the metric k-center problem, these approximations are optimal: the existence of a polynomial-time heuristic with any constant approximation ratio less than 2 would imply that P = NP. As well as for clustering, the farthest-first traversal can also be used in another type of facility location problem, the max-min facility dispersion problem, in which the goal is to choose the locations of k different facilities so that they are as far apart from each other as possible. More precisely, the goal in this problem is to choose k points from a given metric space or a given set of candidate points, in such a way as to maximize the minimum pairwise distance between the selected points. Again, this can be approximated by choosing the first k points of a farthest-first traversal. If r denotes the distance of the kth point from all previous points, then every point of the metric space or the candidate set is within distance r of the first k − 1 points. By the pigeonhole principle, some two points of the optimal solution (whatever it is) must both be within distance r of the same point among these first k − 1 chosen points, and (by the triangle inequality) within distance 2r of each other. Therefore, the heuristic solution given by the farthest-first traversal is within a factor of two of optimal. Other applications of the farthest-first traversal include color quantization (clustering the colors in an image to a smaller set of representative colors), progressive scanning of images (choosing an order to display the pixels of an image so that prefixes of the ordering produce good lower-resolution versions of the whole image rather than filling in the image from top to bottom), point selection in the probabilistic roadmap method for motion planning, simplification of point clouds, generating masks for halftone images, hierarchical clustering, finding the similarities between polygon meshes of similar surfaces, choosing diverse and high-value observation targets for underwater robot exploration, fault detection in sensor networks, modeling phylogenetic diversity, matching vehicles in a heterogenous fleet to customer delivery requests, uniform distribution of geodetic observatories on the Earth's surface or of other types of sensor network, generation of virtual point lights in the instant radiosity computer graphics rendering method, and geometric range searching data structures. == Algorithms == === Greedy exact algorithm === The farthest-first traversal of a finite point set may be computed by a greedy algorithm that maintains the distance of each point from the previously selected points, performing the following steps: Initialize the sequence of selected points to the empty sequence, and the distances of each point to the selected points to infinity. While not all points have been selected, repeat the following steps: Scan the list of not-yet-selected points to find a point p that has the maximum distance from the selected points. Remove p from the not-yet-selected points and add it to the end of the sequence of selected points. For each remaining not-yet-selected point q, replace the distance stored for q by the minimum of its old value and the distance from p to q. For a set of n points, this algorithm takes O(n2) steps and O(n2) distance computations. === Approximations === A faster approximation algorithm, given by Har-Peled & Mendel (2006), applie

    Read more →
  • Mutation (evolutionary algorithm)

    Mutation (evolutionary algorithm)

    Mutation is a genetic operator used to maintain genetic diversity of the chromosomes of a population of an evolutionary algorithm (EA), including genetic algorithms in particular. It is analogous to biological mutation. The classic example of a mutation operator of a binary coded genetic algorithm (GA) involves a probability that an arbitrary bit in a genetic sequence will be flipped from its original state. A common method of implementing the mutation operator involves generating a random variable for each bit in a sequence. This random variable tells whether or not a particular bit will be flipped. This mutation procedure, based on the biological point mutation, is called single point mutation. Other types of mutation operators are commonly used for representations other than binary, such as floating-point encodings or representations for combinatorial problems. The purpose of mutation in EAs is to introduce diversity into the sampled population. Mutation operators are used in an attempt to avoid local minima by preventing the population of chromosomes from becoming too similar to each other, thus slowing or even stopping convergence to the global optimum. This reasoning also leads most EAs to avoid only taking the fittest of the population in generating the next generation, but rather selecting a random (or semi-random) set with a weighting toward those that are fitter. The following requirements apply to all mutation operators used in an EA: every point in the search space must be reachable by one or more mutations. there must be no preference for parts or directions in the search space (no drift). small mutations should be more probable than large ones. For different genome types, different mutation types are suitable. Some mutations are Gaussian, Uniform, Zigzag, Scramble, Insertion, Inversion, Swap, and so on. An overview and more operators than those presented below can be found in the introductory book by Eiben and Smith or in. == Bit string mutation == The mutation of bit strings ensue through bit flips at random positions. Example: The probability of a mutation of a bit is 1 l {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{l}}} , where l {\displaystyle l} is the length of the binary vector. Thus, a mutation rate of 1 {\displaystyle 1} per mutation and individual selected for mutation is reached. == Mutation of real numbers == Many EAs, such as the evolution strategy or the real-coded genetic algorithms, work with real numbers instead of bit strings. This is due to the good experiences that have been made with this type of coding. The value of a real-valued gene can either be changed or redetermined. A mutation that implements the latter should only ever be used in conjunction with the value-changing mutations and then only with comparatively low probability, as it can lead to large changes. In practical applications, the respective value range of the decision variables to be changed of the optimisation problem to be solved is usually limited. Accordingly, the values of the associated genes are each restricted to an interval [ x min , x max ] {\displaystyle [x_{\min },x_{\max }]} . Mutations may or may not take these restrictions into account. In the latter case, suitable post-treatment is then required as described below. === Mutation without consideration of restrictions === A real number x {\displaystyle x} can be mutated using normal distribution N ( 0 , σ ) {\displaystyle {\mathcal {N}}(0,\sigma )} by adding the generated random value to the old value of the gene, resulting in the mutated value x ′ {\displaystyle x'} : x ′ = x + N ( 0 , σ ) {\displaystyle x'=x+{\mathcal {N}}(0,\sigma )} In the case of genes with a restricted range of values, it is a good idea to choose the step size of the mutation σ {\displaystyle \sigma } so that it reasonably fits the range [ x min , x max ] {\displaystyle [x_{\min },x_{\max }]} of the gene to be changed, e.g.: σ = x max − x min 6 {\displaystyle \sigma ={\frac {x_{\text{max}}-x_{\text{min}}}{6}}} The step size can also be adjusted to the smaller permissible change range depending on the current value. In any case, however, it is likely that the new value x ′ {\displaystyle x'} of the gene will be outside the permissible range of values. Such a case must be considered a lethal mutation, since the obvious repair by using the respective violated limit as the new value of the gene would lead to a drift. This is because the limit value would then be selected with the entire probability of the values beyond the limit of the value range. The evolution strategy works with real numbers and mutation based on normal distribution. The step sizes are part of the chromosome and are subject to evolution together with the actual decision variables. === Mutation with consideration of restrictions === One possible form of changing the value of a gene while taking its value range [ x min , x max ] {\displaystyle [x_{\min },x_{\max }]} into account is the mutation relative parameter change of the evolutionary algorithm GLEAM (General Learning Evolutionary Algorithm and Method), in which, as with the mutation presented earlier, small changes are more likely than large ones. First, an equally distributed decision is made as to whether the current value x {\displaystyle x} should be increased or decreased and then the corresponding total change interval is determined. Without loss of generality, an increase is assumed for the explanation and the total change interval is then [ x , x max ] {\displaystyle [x,x_{\max }]} . It is divided into k {\displaystyle k} sub-areas of equal size with the width δ {\displaystyle \delta } , from which k {\displaystyle k} sub-change intervals of different size are formed: i {\displaystyle i} -th sub-change interval: [ x , x + δ ⋅ i ] {\displaystyle [x,x+\delta \cdot i]} with δ = ( x max − x ) k {\displaystyle \delta ={\frac {(x_{\text{max}}-x)}{k}}} and i = 1 , … , k {\displaystyle i=1,\dots ,k} Subsequently, one of the k {\displaystyle k} sub-change intervals is selected in equal distribution and a random number, also equally distributed, is drawn from it as the new value x ′ {\displaystyle x'} of the gene. The resulting summed probabilities of the sub-change intervals result in the probability distribution of the k {\displaystyle k} sub-areas shown in the adjacent figure for the exemplary case of k = 10 {\displaystyle k=10} . This is not a normal distribution as before, but this distribution also clearly favours small changes over larger ones. This mutation for larger values of k {\displaystyle k} , such as 10, is less well suited for tasks where the optimum lies on one of the value range boundaries. This can be remedied by significantly reducing k {\displaystyle k} when a gene value approaches its limits very closely. === Common properties === For both mutation operators for real-valued numbers, the probability of an increase and decrease is independent of the current value and is 50% in each case. In addition, small changes are considerably more likely than large ones. For mixed-integer optimization problems, rounding is usually used. == Mutation of permutations == Mutations of permutations are specially designed for genomes that are themselves permutations of a set. These are often used to solve combinatorial tasks. In the two mutations presented, parts of the genome are rotated or inverted. === Rotation to the right === The presentation of the procedure is illustrated by an example on the right: === Inversion === The presentation of the procedure is illustrated by an example on the right: === Variants with preference for smaller changes === The requirement raised at the beginning for mutations, according to which small changes should be more probable than large ones, is only inadequately fulfilled by the two permutation mutations presented, since the lengths of the partial lists and the number of shift positions are determined in an equally distributed manner. However, the longer the partial list and the shift, the greater the change in gene order. This can be remedied by the following modifications. The end index j {\displaystyle j} of the partial lists is determined as the distance d {\displaystyle d} to the start index i {\displaystyle i} : j = ( i + d ) mod | P 0 | {\displaystyle j=(i+d){\bmod {\left|P_{0}\right|}}} where d {\displaystyle d} is determined randomly according to one of the two procedures for the mutation of real numbers from the interval [ 0 , | P 0 | − 1 ] {\displaystyle \left[0,\left|P_{0}\right|-1\right]} and rounded. For the rotation, k {\displaystyle k} is determined similarly to the distance d {\displaystyle d} , but the value 0 {\displaystyle 0} is forbidden. For the inversion, note that i ≠ j {\displaystyle i\neq j} must hold, so for d {\displaystyle d} the value 0 {\displaystyle 0} must be excluded.

    Read more →
  • PagedAttention

    PagedAttention

    PagedAttention is an attention algorithm for efficient serving of large language models (LLMs). It was introduced in 2023 by Woosuk Kwon and colleagues in the paper Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention, alongside the vLLM serving engine. The method stores the key–value cache used during autoregressive decoding in fixed-size blocks that can be mapped to non-contiguous physical memory, borrowing ideas from virtual memory, paging, and operating system design. == Background == In transformer inference, the key–value cache grows with sequence length and the number of concurrent requests. Kwon et al. argued that earlier serving systems typically reserved contiguous cache regions in advance, which caused reserved space, internal fragmentation, and external fragmentation. In their experiments, the paper reported that the effective memory utilization of previous systems could fall as low as 20.4%. == Description == PagedAttention partitions the cache of each sequence into fixed-size KV blocks. A request's cache is represented as a sequence of logical blocks, while a block table maps those logical blocks to physical GPU-memory blocks. As a result, neighboring logical blocks do not need to be contiguous in physical memory, and new blocks can be allocated on demand as generation proceeds. The design also makes it easier to share cache state across related decoding paths. In vLLM, physical blocks can be reference-counted and shared among requests or branches, with block-granularity copy-on-write used when a shared block must be modified. The original paper applied this design to parallel sampling, beam search, and prompts with shared prefixes. == Mathematical formulation == For a query token i {\displaystyle i} in causal self-attention, the standard attention output can be written as a i j = exp ⁡ ( q i ⊤ k j / d ) ∑ t = 1 i exp ⁡ ( q i ⊤ k t / d ) , o i = ∑ j = 1 i a i j v j {\displaystyle a_{ij}={\frac {\exp(\mathbf {q} _{i}^{\top }\mathbf {k} _{j}/{\sqrt {d}})}{\sum _{t=1}^{i}\exp(\mathbf {q} _{i}^{\top }\mathbf {k} _{t}/{\sqrt {d}})}},\;\mathbf {o} _{i}=\sum _{j=1}^{i}a_{ij}\mathbf {v} _{j}} where q i {\displaystyle \mathbf {q} _{i}} , k j {\displaystyle \mathbf {k} _{j}} , and v j {\displaystyle \mathbf {v} _{j}} are the query, key, and value vectors, and d {\displaystyle d} is the attention dimension. If the cache is partitioned into blocks of size B {\displaystyle B} , the key and value blocks may be written as K j = ( k ( j − 1 ) B + 1 , … , k j B ) , V j = ( v ( j − 1 ) B + 1 , … , v j B ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {K} _{j}=(\mathbf {k} _{(j-1)B+1},\ldots ,\mathbf {k} _{jB}),\;\mathbf {V} _{j}=(\mathbf {v} _{(j-1)B+1},\ldots ,\mathbf {v} _{jB})} PagedAttention then performs the computation blockwise: A i j = exp ⁡ ( q i ⊤ K j / d ) ∑ t = 1 ⌈ i / B ⌉ exp ⁡ ( q i ⊤ K t / d ) , o i = ∑ j = 1 ⌈ i / B ⌉ V j A i j ⊤ {\displaystyle \mathbf {A} _{ij}={\frac {\exp(\mathbf {q} _{i}^{\top }\mathbf {K} _{j}/{\sqrt {d}})}{\sum _{t=1}^{\lceil i/B\rceil }\exp(\mathbf {q} _{i}^{\top }\mathbf {K} _{t}/{\sqrt {d}})}},\;\mathbf {o} _{i}=\sum _{j=1}^{\lceil i/B\rceil }\mathbf {V} _{j}\mathbf {A} _{ij}^{\top }} where A i j {\displaystyle \mathbf {A} _{ij}} is the vector of attention scores for the j {\displaystyle j} -th KV block. In the formulation given by Kwon et al., this preserves the causal attention calculation while allowing the key and value blocks to reside in non-contiguous physical memory. == Performance and use == The vLLM paper reported that, on its evaluated workloads, the use of PagedAttention and the associated memory-management design improved serving throughput by 2–4× over the compared baselines, including FasterTransformer and Orca, while preserving model outputs. In experiments on OPT-13B with the Alpaca trace, the paper also reported memory savings of 6.1–9.8% for parallel sampling and 37.6–55.2% for beam search through KV-block sharing. A 2024 survey of LLM serving systems described PagedAttention as having become an industry norm in LLM serving frameworks, citing support in TGI, vLLM, and TensorRT-LLM. == Limitations and alternatives == Subsequent work has described trade-offs in the approach. The 2025 vAttention paper argued that PagedAttention requires attention kernels to be rewritten to support paging and increases software complexity, portability issues, redundancy, and execution overhead, proposing instead a memory manager that keeps the cache contiguous in virtual memory while relying on demand paging for physical allocation. === vAttention === Unlike PagedAttention, vAttention does not introduce a different attention rule; it retains the standard attention computation Attention ⁡ ( q i , K , V ) = softmax ⁡ ( q i K ⊤ s c a l e ) V . {\displaystyle \operatorname {Attention} (q_{i},K,V)=\operatorname {softmax} \left({\frac {q_{i}K^{\top }}{\mathrm {scale} }}\right)V.} In the notation of Prabhu et al., the key and value tensors for a request seen so far are K , V ∈ R L ′ × ( H × D ) {\displaystyle K,V\in \mathbb {R} ^{L'\times (H\times D)}} , where L ′ {\displaystyle L'} is the context length seen so far, H {\displaystyle H} is the number of KV heads on a worker, and D {\displaystyle D} is the dimension of each KV head. In systems prior to PagedAttention, the K cache (or V cache) at each layer of a worker is typically allocated as a 4D tensor of shape [ B , L , H , D ] , {\displaystyle [B,L,H,D],} where B {\displaystyle B} is batch size and L {\displaystyle L} is the maximum context length supported by the model. vAttention preserves this contiguous virtual-memory view while deferring physical-memory allocation to runtime. A serving framework maintains separate K and V tensors for each layer, so vAttention reserves 2 N {\displaystyle 2N} virtual-memory buffers on a worker, where N {\displaystyle N} is the number of layers managed by that worker. The maximum size of one virtual-memory buffer is B S = B × S , {\displaystyle BS=B\times S,} where S {\displaystyle S} is the maximum size of a single request's per-layer K cache (or V cache) on a worker. The paper defines S = L × H × D × P , {\displaystyle S=L\times H\times D\times P,} where P {\displaystyle P} is the number of bytes needed to store one element. In this formulation, vAttention keeps the KV cache contiguous in virtual memory and relies on demand paging for physical allocation, rather than modifying the attention kernel to operate over non-contiguous KV-cache blocks.

    Read more →
  • Determining the number of clusters in a data set

    Determining the number of clusters in a data set

    Determining the number of clusters in a data set, a quantity often labelled k as in the k-means algorithm, is a frequent problem in data clustering, and is a distinct issue from the process of actually solving the clustering problem. For a certain class of clustering algorithms (in particular k-means, k-medoids and expectation–maximization algorithm), there is a parameter commonly referred to as k that specifies the number of clusters to detect. Other algorithms such as DBSCAN and OPTICS algorithm do not require the specification of this parameter; hierarchical clustering avoids the problem altogether. The correct choice of k is often ambiguous, with interpretations depending on the shape and scale of the distribution of points in a data set and the desired clustering resolution of the user. In addition, increasing k without penalty will always reduce the amount of error in the resulting clustering, to the extreme case of zero error if each data point is considered its own cluster (i.e., when k equals the number of data points, n). Intuitively then, the optimal choice of k will strike a balance between maximum compression of the data using a single cluster, and maximum accuracy by assigning each data point to its own cluster. If an appropriate value of k is not apparent from prior knowledge of the properties of the data set, it must be chosen somehow. There are several categories of methods for making this decision. == Elbow method == The elbow method looks at the percentage of explained variance as a function of the number of clusters: One should choose a number of clusters so that adding another cluster does not give much better modeling of the data. More precisely, if one plots the percentage of variance explained by the clusters against the number of clusters, the first clusters will add much information (explain a lot of variance), but at some point the marginal gain will drop, giving an angle in the graph. The number of clusters is chosen at this point, hence the "elbow criterion". In most datasets, this "elbow" is ambiguous, making this method subjective and unreliable. Because the scale of the axes is arbitrary, the concept of an angle is not well-defined, and even on uniform random data, the curve produces an "elbow", making the method rather unreliable. Percentage of variance explained is the ratio of the between-group variance to the total variance, also known as an F-test. A slight variation of this method plots the curvature of the within group variance. The method can be traced to speculation by Robert L. Thorndike in 1953. While the idea of the elbow method sounds simple and straightforward, other methods (as detailed below) give better results. == X-means clustering == In statistics and data mining, X-means clustering is a variation of k-means clustering that refines cluster assignments by repeatedly attempting subdivision, and keeping the best resulting splits, until a criterion such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) or Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is reached. == Information criterion approach == Another set of methods for determining the number of clusters are information criteria, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), or the deviance information criterion (DIC) — if it is possible to make a likelihood function for the clustering model. For example: The k-means model is "almost" a Gaussian mixture model and one can construct a likelihood for the Gaussian mixture model and thus also determine information criterion values. == Information–theoretic approach == Rate distortion theory has been applied to choosing k called the "jump" method, which determines the number of clusters that maximizes efficiency while minimizing error by information-theoretic standards. The strategy of the algorithm is to generate a distortion curve for the input data by running a standard clustering algorithm such as k-means for all values of k between 1 and n, and computing the distortion (described below) of the resulting clustering. The distortion curve is then transformed by a negative power chosen based on the dimensionality of the data. Jumps in the resulting values then signify reasonable choices for k, with the largest jump representing the best choice. The distortion of a clustering of some input data is formally defined as follows: Let the data set be modeled as a p-dimensional random variable, X, consisting of a mixture distribution of G components with common covariance, Γ. If we let c 1 … c K {\displaystyle c_{1}\ldots c_{K}} be a set of K cluster centers, with c X {\displaystyle c_{X}} the closest center to a given sample of X, then the minimum average distortion per dimension when fitting the K centers to the data is: d K = 1 p min c 1 … c K E [ ( X − c X ) T Γ − 1 ( X − c X ) ] {\displaystyle d_{K}={\frac {1}{p}}\min _{c_{1}\ldots c_{K}}{E[(X-c_{X})^{T}\Gamma ^{-1}(X-c_{X})]}} This is also the average Mahalanobis distance per dimension between X and the closest cluster center c X {\displaystyle c_{X}} . Because the minimization over all possible sets of cluster centers is prohibitively complex, the distortion is computed in practice by generating a set of cluster centers using a standard clustering algorithm and computing the distortion using the result. The pseudo-code for the jump method with an input set of p-dimensional data points X is: JumpMethod(X): Let Y = (p/2) Init a list D, of size n+1 Let D[0] = 0 For k = 1 ... n: Cluster X with k clusters (e.g., with k-means) Let d = Distortion of the resulting clustering D[k] = d^(-Y) Define J(i) = D[i] - D[i-1] Return the k between 1 and n that maximizes J(k) The choice of the transform power Y = ( p / 2 ) {\displaystyle Y=(p/2)} is motivated by asymptotic reasoning using results from rate distortion theory. Let the data X have a single, arbitrarily p-dimensional Gaussian distribution, and let fixed K = ⌊ α p ⌋ {\displaystyle K=\lfloor \alpha ^{p}\rfloor } , for some α greater than zero. Then the distortion of a clustering of K clusters in the limit as p goes to infinity is α − 2 {\displaystyle \alpha ^{-2}} . It can be seen that asymptotically, the distortion of a clustering to the power ( − p / 2 ) {\displaystyle (-p/2)} is proportional to α p {\displaystyle \alpha ^{p}} , which by definition is approximately the number of clusters K. In other words, for a single Gaussian distribution, increasing K beyond the true number of clusters, which should be one, causes a linear growth in distortion. This behavior is important in the general case of a mixture of multiple distribution components. Let X be a mixture of G p-dimensional Gaussian distributions with common covariance. Then for any fixed K less than G, the distortion of a clustering as p goes to infinity is infinite. Intuitively, this means that a clustering of less than the correct number of clusters is unable to describe asymptotically high-dimensional data, causing the distortion to increase without limit. If, as described above, K is made an increasing function of p, namely, K = ⌊ α p ⌋ {\displaystyle K=\lfloor \alpha ^{p}\rfloor } , the same result as above is achieved, with the value of the distortion in the limit as p goes to infinity being equal to α − 2 {\displaystyle \alpha ^{-2}} . Correspondingly, there is the same proportional relationship between the transformed distortion and the number of clusters, K. Putting the results above together, it can be seen that for sufficiently high values of p, the transformed distortion d K − p / 2 {\displaystyle d_{K}^{-p/2}} is approximately zero for K < G, then jumps suddenly and begins increasing linearly for K ≥ G. The jump algorithm for choosing K makes use of these behaviors to identify the most likely value for the true number of clusters. Although the mathematical support for the method is given in terms of asymptotic results, the algorithm has been empirically verified to work well in a variety of data sets with reasonable dimensionality. In addition to the localized jump method described above, there exists a second algorithm for choosing K using the same transformed distortion values known as the broken line method. The broken line method identifies the jump point in the graph of the transformed distortion by doing a simple least squares error line fit of two line segments, which in theory will fall along the x-axis for K < G, and along the linearly increasing phase of the transformed distortion plot for K ≥ G. The broken line method is more robust than the jump method in that its decision is global rather than local, but it also relies on the assumption of Gaussian mixture components, whereas the jump method is fully non-parametric and has been shown to be viable for general mixture distributions. == Silhouette method == The average silhouette of the data is another useful criterion for assessing the natural number of clusters. The silhouette of a data instance is a measure of how closely it is match

    Read more →
  • Lattice Miner

    Lattice Miner

    Lattice Miner is a formal concept analysis software tool for the construction, visualization and manipulation of concept lattices. It allows the generation of formal concepts and association rules as well as the transformation of formal contexts via apposition, subposition, reduction and object/attribute generalization, and the manipulation of concept lattices via approximation, projection and selection. Lattice Miner allows also the drawing of nested line diagrams. == Introduction == Formal concept analysis (FCA) is a branch of applied mathematics based on the formalization of concept and concept hierarchy and mainly used as a framework for conceptual clustering and rule mining. Over the last two decades, a collection of tools have emerged to help FCA users visualize and analyze concept lattices. They range from the earliest DOS-based implementations (e.g., ConImp and GLAD) to more recent implementations in Java like ToscanaJ, Galicia, ConExp and Coron. A main issue in the development of FCA tools is to visualize large concept lattices and provide efficient mechanisms to highlight patterns (e.g., concepts, associations) that could be relevant to the user. The initial objective of the FCA tool called Lattice Miner was to focus on visualization mechanisms for the representation of concept lattices, including nested line diagrams. Later on, many other interesting features were integrated into the tool. == Functional architecture of Lattice Miner == Lattice Miner is a Java-based platform whose functions are articulated around a core. The Lattice Miner core provides all low-level operations and structures for the representation and manipulation of contexts, lattices and association rules. Mainly, the core of Lattice Miner consists of three modules: context, concept and association rule modules. The user interface offers a context editor and concept lattice manipulator to assist the user in a set of tasks. The architecture of Lattice Miner is open and modular enough to allow the integration of new features and facilities in each one of its components. === Context module === The context module offers all the basic operations and structures to manipulate binary and valued contexts as well as context decomposition to produce nested line diagrams. Basic context operations include apposition, subposition, generalization, clarification, reduction as well as the complementary context computation. The module provides also the arrow relations (for context reduction and decomposition) [2]. The tool has an input LMB format and recognizes the binary format SLF found in Galicia and the format CEX produced by ConExp. === Concept module === The main function of the concept module is to generate the concepts of the current binary context and construct the corresponding lattice and nested structure (see Figures 2 and 3). It provides the user with basic operators such as projection, selection, and exact search as well as advanced features like pair approximation. Some known algorithms are included in this module such as Bordat’s procedure, Godin’s algorithm and NextClosure algorithm. The approximation feature implemented in Lattice Miner is based on the following idea: given a pair (X,Y) where X ⊆ G, and Y ⊆ M, is there a set of formal concepts (Ai,Bi) which are “close to” (X,Y)? To answer this question, The tool starts to identify the type of couple that the pair (X,Y) represents. It can be a formal concept, a protoconcept, a semiconcept or a preconcept. In the last case, the approximation is given by the interval [(X",X′),(Y′,Y")] and highlighted in the line diagram. === Association rule module === This module includes procedures for computing the (stem) Guigues–Duquenne base using NextClosure algorithm [3], as well as the generic and informative bases. Implications with negation can be obtained using the apposition of a context and its complementary. This module embeds also procedures for the computation of a non-redundant family C of implications and the closure of a set Y of attributes for the given implication set C. === User interface === The initial objective of Lattice Miner was to focus on lattice drawing and visualization either as a flat or nested structure by taking into account the cognitive process of human beings and known principles for lattice drawing (e.g., reducing the number of edge intersections, ensuring diagram symmetry). Some well-known visualization techniques were implemented such as focus & context and fisheye view. The basic idea behind focus & context visualization paradigm is to allow a viewer to see key (important) objects in full detail in the foreground (focus) while at the same time an overview of all the surrounding information (context) remains available in the background. Lattice Miner translates the focus & context paradigm into clear and blurred elements while the size of nodes and the intensity of their color were used to indicate their importance. Various forms of highlighting, labelling and animation are also provided. In order to better handle the display of large lattices, nested line diagrams are offered in the tool. Figure 3 shows the third level of the nested line diagram corresponding to the binary context of Figure 1 where three levels of nesting are defined. Each one of the inner nodes of this diagram represents a combination of attributes from the previous two (outer) levels. Real inner concepts (see the node on the left hand-side of the diagram) are identified by colored nodes while void elements are in grey color. Each node of levels 1 and 2 can be expanded to exhibit its internal line diagram. Both flat and nested diagrams can be saved as an image. Simple (flat) lattices can also be saved as an XML format file.

    Read more →
  • Margin-infused relaxed algorithm

    Margin-infused relaxed algorithm

    Margin-infused relaxed algorithm (MIRA) is a machine learning and online algorithm for multiclass classification problems. It is designed to learn a set of parameters (vector or matrix) by processing all the given training examples one-by-one and updating the parameters according to each training example, so that the current training example is classified correctly with a margin against incorrect classifications at least as large as their loss. The change of the parameters is kept as small as possible. A two-class version called binary MIRA simplifies the algorithm by not requiring the solution of a quadratic programming problem (see below). When used in a one-vs-all configuration, binary MIRA can be extended to a multiclass learner that approximates full MIRA, but may be faster to train. The flow of the algorithm looks as follows: The update step is then formalized as a quadratic programming problem: Find m i n ‖ w ( i + 1 ) − w ( i ) ‖ {\displaystyle min\|w^{(i+1)}-w^{(i)}\|} , so that s c o r e ( x t , y t ) − s c o r e ( x t , y ′ ) ≥ L ( y t , y ′ ) ∀ y ′ {\displaystyle score(x_{t},y_{t})-score(x_{t},y')\geq L(y_{t},y')\ \forall y'} , i.e. the score of the current correct training y {\displaystyle y} must be greater than the score of any other possible y ′ {\displaystyle y'} by at least the loss (number of errors) of that y ′ {\displaystyle y'} in comparison to y {\displaystyle y} .

    Read more →
  • Couch to 5K

    Couch to 5K

    Couch to 5K, abbreviated C25K, is an exercise plan that gradually progresses from beginner running toward a 5 kilometre (3.1 mile) run over nine weeks. == Operations == The Couch to 5K running plan, also known as C25K, created by Josh Clark in 1996, was developed with the expectation of creating a plan for new runners to start running. The plan is aimed to have users work out for 20 to 30 minutes, three days a week. Within the program, users can be expected to perform different tasks such as intervals of running with period of short walks in between to help build endurance in the weeks up to the final goal of a 5K run. During the nine weeks leading up to the race, the runner will learn to set their own pace and where their strengths and weaknesses are within running. Often, the daily workouts start with a five-minute warm-up walk and works up to running five kilometres without a walking break within nine weeks. Users are not expected to have any experience in running and can be some of the first running that they ever do. The main goal is to turn that unexperienced runner into someone who can run a 5K. Clark started the website Kick and featured C25K on the site. In 2001, Kick merged with Cool Running, a New England–based running site. Clark later sold his stake in Cool Running and the Couch to 5K program. Cool Running was absorbed into Active.com, operated by Active Network, LLC. Active Network provides mobile apps for Couch to 5K, as well as 5K to 10K, a follow-up program. The NHS in the UK provides downloadable podcasts and a smartphone app (Android and iOS) for the plan. A mobile app, created by Zen Labs, has training plans that are based on the Couch to 5K running plan from CoolRunning.com. It is one of the highest-rated health and fitness apps available on Android and iOS. As of 2016, the C25K app has been used by over 5 million people.

    Read more →
  • Mean squared prediction error

    Mean squared prediction error

    In statistics the mean squared prediction error (MSPE), also known as mean squared error of the predictions, of a smoothing, curve fitting, or regression procedure is the expected value of the squared prediction errors (PE), the square difference between the fitted values implied by the predictive function g ^ {\displaystyle {\widehat {g}}} and the values of the (unobservable) true value g. It is an inverse measure of the explanatory power of g ^ , {\displaystyle {\widehat {g}},} and can be used in the process of cross-validation of an estimated model. Knowledge of g would be required in order to calculate the MSPE exactly; in practice, MSPE is estimated. == Formulation == If the smoothing or fitting procedure has projection matrix (i.e., hat matrix) L, which maps the observed values vector y {\displaystyle y} to predicted values vector y ^ = L y , {\displaystyle {\hat {y}}=Ly,} then PE and MSPE are formulated as: P E i = g ( x i ) − g ^ ( x i ) , {\displaystyle \operatorname {PE_{i}} =g(x_{i})-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i}),} MSPE = E ⁡ [ PE i 2 ] = ∑ i = 1 n PE i 2 ⁡ / n . {\displaystyle \operatorname {MSPE} =\operatorname {E} \left[\operatorname {PE} _{i}^{2}\right]=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\operatorname {PE} _{i}^{2}/n.} The MSPE can be decomposed into two terms: the squared bias (mean error) of the fitted values and the variance of the fitted values: MSPE = ME 2 + VAR , {\displaystyle \operatorname {MSPE} =\operatorname {ME} ^{2}+\operatorname {VAR} ,} ME = E ⁡ [ g ^ ( x i ) − g ( x i ) ] {\displaystyle \operatorname {ME} =\operatorname {E} \left[{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})-g(x_{i})\right]} VAR = E ⁡ [ ( g ^ ( x i ) − E ⁡ [ g ( x i ) ] ) 2 ] . {\displaystyle \operatorname {VAR} =\operatorname {E} \left[\left({\widehat {g}}(x_{i})-\operatorname {E} \left[{g}(x_{i})\right]\right)^{2}\right].} The quantity SSPE=nMSPE is called sum squared prediction error. The root mean squared prediction error is the square root of MSPE: RMSPE=√MSPE. == Computation of MSPE over out-of-sample data == The mean squared prediction error can be computed exactly in two contexts. First, with a data sample of length n, the data analyst may run the regression over only q of the data points (with q < n), holding back the other n – q data points with the specific purpose of using them to compute the estimated model’s MSPE out of sample (i.e., not using data that were used in the model estimation process). Since the regression process is tailored to the q in-sample points, normally the in-sample MSPE will be smaller than the out-of-sample one computed over the n – q held-back points. If the increase in the MSPE out of sample compared to in sample is relatively slight, that results in the model being viewed favorably. And if two models are to be compared, the one with the lower MSPE over the n – q out-of-sample data points is viewed more favorably, regardless of the models’ relative in-sample performances. The out-of-sample MSPE in this context is exact for the out-of-sample data points that it was computed over, but is merely an estimate of the model’s MSPE for the mostly unobserved population from which the data were drawn. Second, as time goes on more data may become available to the data analyst, and then the MSPE can be computed over these new data. == Estimation of MSPE over the population == When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows. For the model y i = g ( x i ) + σ ε i {\displaystyle y_{i}=g(x_{i})+\sigma \varepsilon _{i}} where ε i ∼ N ( 0 , 1 ) {\displaystyle \varepsilon _{i}\sim {\mathcal {N}}(0,1)} , one may write n ⋅ MSPE ⁡ ( L ) = g T ( I − L ) T ( I − L ) g + σ 2 tr ⁡ [ L T L ] . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {MSPE} (L)=g^{\text{T}}(I-L)^{\text{T}}(I-L)g+\sigma ^{2}\operatorname {tr} \left[L^{\text{T}}L\right].} Using in-sample data values, the first term on the right side is equivalent to ∑ i = 1 n ( E ⁡ [ g ( x i ) − g ^ ( x i ) ] ) 2 = E ⁡ [ ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 ] − σ 2 tr ⁡ [ ( I − L ) T ( I − L ) ] . {\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(\operatorname {E} \left[g(x_{i})-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right]\right)^{2}=\operatorname {E} \left[\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}\right]-\sigma ^{2}\operatorname {tr} \left[\left(I-L\right)^{T}\left(I-L\right)\right].} Thus, n ⋅ MSPE ⁡ ( L ) = E ⁡ [ ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 ] − σ 2 ( n − tr ⁡ [ L ] ) . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {MSPE} (L)=\operatorname {E} \left[\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}\right]-\sigma ^{2}\left(n-\operatorname {tr} \left[L\right]\right).} If σ 2 {\displaystyle \sigma ^{2}} is known or well-estimated by σ ^ 2 {\displaystyle {\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}} , it becomes possible to estimate MSPE by n ⋅ M S P E ^ ⁡ ( L ) = ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 − σ ^ 2 ( n − tr ⁡ [ L ] ) . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {\widehat {MSPE}} (L)=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}-{\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}\left(n-\operatorname {tr} \left[L\right]\right).} Colin Mallows advocated this method in the construction of his model selection statistic Cp, which is a normalized version of the estimated MSPE: C p = ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 σ ^ 2 − n + 2 p . {\displaystyle C_{p}={\frac {\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}}{{\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}}}-n+2p.} where p the number of estimated parameters p and σ ^ 2 {\displaystyle {\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}} is computed from the version of the model that includes all possible regressors. That concludes this proof.

    Read more →
  • Stochastic gradient descent

    Stochastic gradient descent

    Stochastic gradient descent (often abbreviated SGD) is an iterative method for optimizing an objective function with suitable smoothness properties (e.g. differentiable or subdifferentiable). It can be regarded as a stochastic approximation of gradient descent optimization, since it replaces the actual gradient (calculated from the entire data set) by an estimate thereof (calculated from a randomly selected subset of the data). Especially in high-dimensional optimization problems this reduces the very high computational burden, achieving faster iterations in exchange for a lower convergence rate. The basic idea behind stochastic approximation can be traced back to the Robbins–Monro algorithm of the 1950s. Today, stochastic gradient descent has become an important optimization method in machine learning. == Background == Both statistical estimation and machine learning consider the problem of minimizing an objective function that has the form of a sum: Q ( w ) = 1 n ∑ i = 1 n Q i ( w ) , {\displaystyle Q(w)={\frac {1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}Q_{i}(w),} where the parameter w {\displaystyle w} that minimizes Q ( w ) {\displaystyle Q(w)} is to be estimated. Each summand function Q i {\displaystyle Q_{i}} is typically associated with the i {\displaystyle i} -th observation in the data set (used for training). In classical statistics, sum-minimization problems arise in least squares and in maximum-likelihood estimation (for independent observations). The general class of estimators that arise as minimizers of sums are called M-estimators. However, in statistics, it has been long recognized that requiring even local minimization is too restrictive for some problems of maximum-likelihood estimation. Therefore, contemporary statistical theorists often consider stationary points of the likelihood function (or zeros of its derivative, the score function, and other estimating equations). The sum-minimization problem also arises for empirical risk minimization. There, Q i ( w ) {\displaystyle Q_{i}(w)} is the value of the loss function at i {\displaystyle i} -th example, and Q ( w ) {\displaystyle Q(w)} is the empirical risk. When used to minimize the above function, a standard (or "batch") gradient descent method would perform the following iterations: w := w − η ∇ Q ( w ) = w − η n ∑ i = 1 n ∇ Q i ( w ) . {\displaystyle w:=w-\eta \,\nabla Q(w)=w-{\frac {\eta }{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}\nabla Q_{i}(w).} The step size is denoted by η {\displaystyle \eta } (sometimes called the learning rate in machine learning) and here " := {\displaystyle :=} " denotes the update of a variable in the algorithm. In many cases, the summand functions have a simple form that enables inexpensive evaluations of the sum-function and the sum gradient. For example, in statistics, one-parameter exponential families allow economical function-evaluations and gradient-evaluations. However, in other cases, evaluating the sum-gradient may require expensive evaluations of the gradients from all summand functions. When the training set is enormous and no simple formulas exist, evaluating the sums of gradients becomes very expensive, because evaluating the gradient requires evaluating all the summand functions' gradients. To economize on the computational cost at every iteration, stochastic gradient descent samples a subset of summand functions at every step. This is very effective in the case of large-scale machine learning problems. == Iterative method == In stochastic (or "on-line") gradient descent, the true gradient of Q ( w ) {\displaystyle Q(w)} is approximated by a gradient at a single sample: w := w − η ∇ Q i ( w ) . {\displaystyle w:=w-\eta \,\nabla Q_{i}(w).} As the algorithm sweeps through the training set, it performs the above update for each training sample. Several passes can be made over the training set until the algorithm converges. If this is done, the data can be shuffled for each pass to prevent cycles. Typical implementations may use an adaptive learning rate so that the algorithm converges. In pseudocode, stochastic gradient descent can be presented as : A compromise between computing the true gradient and the gradient at a single sample is to compute the gradient against more than one training sample (called a "mini-batch") at each step. This can perform significantly better than "true" stochastic gradient descent described, because the code can make use of vectorization libraries rather than computing each step separately as was first shown in where it was called "the bunch-mode back-propagation algorithm". It may also result in smoother convergence, as the gradient computed at each step is averaged over more training samples. The convergence of stochastic gradient descent has been analyzed using the theories of convex minimization and of stochastic approximation. Briefly, when the learning rates η {\displaystyle \eta } decrease with an appropriate rate, and subject to relatively mild assumptions, stochastic gradient descent converges almost surely to a global minimum when the objective function is convex or pseudoconvex, and otherwise converges almost surely to a local minimum. This is in fact a consequence of the Robbins–Siegmund theorem. == Linear regression == Suppose we want to fit a straight line y ^ = w 1 + w 2 x {\displaystyle {\hat {y}}=w_{1}+w_{2}x} to a training set with observations ( ( x 1 , y 1 ) , ( x 2 , y 2 ) … , ( x n , y n ) ) {\displaystyle ((x_{1},y_{1}),(x_{2},y_{2})\ldots ,(x_{n},y_{n}))} and corresponding estimated responses ( y ^ 1 , y ^ 2 , … , y ^ n ) {\displaystyle ({\hat {y}}_{1},{\hat {y}}_{2},\ldots ,{\hat {y}}_{n})} using least squares. The objective function to be minimized is Q ( w ) = ∑ i = 1 n Q i ( w ) = ∑ i = 1 n ( y ^ i − y i ) 2 = ∑ i = 1 n ( w 1 + w 2 x i − y i ) 2 . {\displaystyle Q(w)=\sum _{i=1}^{n}Q_{i}(w)=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({\hat {y}}_{i}-y_{i}\right)^{2}=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(w_{1}+w_{2}x_{i}-y_{i}\right)^{2}.} The last line in the above pseudocode for this specific problem will become: [ w 1 w 2 ] ← [ w 1 w 2 ] − η [ ∂ ∂ w 1 ( w 1 + w 2 x i − y i ) 2 ∂ ∂ w 2 ( w 1 + w 2 x i − y i ) 2 ] = [ w 1 w 2 ] − η [ 2 ( w 1 + w 2 x i − y i ) 2 x i ( w 1 + w 2 x i − y i ) ] . {\displaystyle {\begin{bmatrix}w_{1}\\w_{2}\end{bmatrix}}\leftarrow {\begin{bmatrix}w_{1}\\w_{2}\end{bmatrix}}-\eta {\begin{bmatrix}{\frac {\partial }{\partial w_{1}}}(w_{1}+w_{2}x_{i}-y_{i})^{2}\\{\frac {\partial }{\partial w_{2}}}(w_{1}+w_{2}x_{i}-y_{i})^{2}\end{bmatrix}}={\begin{bmatrix}w_{1}\\w_{2}\end{bmatrix}}-\eta {\begin{bmatrix}2(w_{1}+w_{2}x_{i}-y_{i})\\2x_{i}(w_{1}+w_{2}x_{i}-y_{i})\end{bmatrix}}.} Note that in each iteration or update step, the gradient is only evaluated at a single x i {\displaystyle x_{i}} . This is the key difference between stochastic gradient descent and batched gradient descent. In general, given a linear regression y ^ = ∑ k ∈ 1 : m w k x k {\displaystyle {\hat {y}}=\sum _{k\in 1:m}w_{k}x_{k}} problem, stochastic gradient descent behaves differently when m < n {\displaystyle m

  • Linear discriminant analysis

    Linear discriminant analysis

    Linear discriminant analysis (LDA), normal discriminant analysis (NDA), canonical variates analysis (CVA), or discriminant function analysis is a generalization of Fisher's linear discriminant, a method used in statistics and other fields, to find a linear combination of features that characterizes or separates two or more classes of objects or events. The resulting combination may be used as a linear classifier, or, more commonly, for dimensionality reduction before later classification. LDA is closely related to analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression analysis, which also attempt to express one dependent variable as a linear combination of other features or measurements. However, ANOVA uses categorical independent variables and a continuous dependent variable, whereas discriminant analysis has continuous independent variables and a categorical dependent variable (i.e. the class label). Logistic regression and probit regression are more similar to LDA than ANOVA is, as they also explain a categorical variable by the values of continuous independent variables. These other methods are preferable in applications where it is not reasonable to assume that the independent variables have a normal distribution, which is a fundamental assumption of the LDA method. LDA is also closely related to principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis in that they both look for linear combinations of variables which best explain the data. LDA explicitly attempts to model the difference between the classes of data. PCA, in contrast, does not take into account any difference in class, and factor analysis builds the feature combinations based on similarities rather than differences. Discriminant analysis is also different from factor analysis in that it is not an interdependence technique: a distinction between independent variables and dependent variables (also called criterion variables) must be made. LDA works when the measurements made on independent variables for each observation are continuous quantities. When dealing with categorical independent variables, the equivalent technique is discriminant correspondence analysis. Discriminant analysis is used when groups are known a priori (unlike in cluster analysis). Each case must have a score on one or more quantitative predictor measures, and a score on a group measure. In simple terms, discriminant function analysis is classification - the act of distributing things into groups, classes or categories of the same type. == History == The original dichotomous discriminant analysis was developed by Sir Ronald Fisher in 1936. It is different from an ANOVA or MANOVA, which is used to predict one (ANOVA) or multiple (MANOVA) continuous dependent variables by one or more independent categorical variables. Discriminant function analysis is useful in determining whether a set of variables is effective in predicting category membership. == LDA for two classes == Consider a set of observations x → {\displaystyle {\vec {x}}} (also called features, attributes, variables or measurements) for each sample of an object or event with known class y {\displaystyle y} . This set of samples is called the training set in a supervised learning context. The classification problem is then to find a good predictor for the class y {\displaystyle y} of any sample of the same distribution (not necessarily from the training set) given only an observation x → {\displaystyle {\vec {x}}} . LDA approaches the problem by assuming that the conditional probability density functions p ( x → | y = 0 ) {\displaystyle p({\vec {x}}|y=0)} and p ( x → | y = 1 ) {\displaystyle p({\vec {x}}|y=1)} are both the normal distribution with mean and covariance parameters ( μ → 0 , Σ 0 ) {\displaystyle \left({\vec {\mu }}_{0},\Sigma _{0}\right)} and ( μ → 1 , Σ 1 ) {\displaystyle \left({\vec {\mu }}_{1},\Sigma _{1}\right)} , respectively. Under this assumption, the Bayes-optimal solution is to predict points as being from the second class if the log of the likelihood ratios is bigger than some threshold T, so that: 1 2 ( x → − μ → 0 ) T Σ 0 − 1 ( x → − μ → 0 ) + 1 2 ln ⁡ | Σ 0 | − 1 2 ( x → − μ → 1 ) T Σ 1 − 1 ( x → − μ → 1 ) − 1 2 ln ⁡ | Σ 1 | > T {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{2}}({\vec {x}}-{\vec {\mu }}_{0})^{\mathrm {T} }\Sigma _{0}^{-1}({\vec {x}}-{\vec {\mu }}_{0})+{\frac {1}{2}}\ln |\Sigma _{0}|-{\frac {1}{2}}({\vec {x}}-{\vec {\mu }}_{1})^{\mathrm {T} }\Sigma _{1}^{-1}({\vec {x}}-{\vec {\mu }}_{1})-{\frac {1}{2}}\ln |\Sigma _{1}|\ >\ T} Without any further assumptions, the resulting classifier is referred to as quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA). LDA instead makes the additional simplifying homoscedasticity assumption (i.e. that the class covariances are identical, so Σ 0 = Σ 1 = Σ {\displaystyle \Sigma _{0}=\Sigma _{1}=\Sigma } ) and that the covariances have full rank. In this case, several terms cancel: x → T Σ 0 − 1 x → = x → T Σ 1 − 1 x → {\displaystyle {\vec {x}}^{\mathrm {T} }\Sigma _{0}^{-1}{\vec {x}}={\vec {x}}^{\mathrm {T} }\Sigma _{1}^{-1}{\vec {x}}} x → T Σ i − 1 μ → i = μ → i T Σ i − 1 x → {\displaystyle {\vec {x}}^{\mathrm {T} }{\Sigma _{i}}^{-1}{\vec {\mu }}_{i}={{\vec {\mu }}_{i}}^{\mathrm {T} }{\Sigma _{i}}^{-1}{\vec {x}}} because both sides are scalar and transpose to each other ( Σ i {\displaystyle \Sigma _{i}} is Hermitian) and the above decision criterion becomes a threshold on the dot product w → T x → > c {\displaystyle {\vec {w}}^{\mathrm {T} }{\vec {x}}>c} for some threshold constant c, where w → = Σ − 1 ( μ → 1 − μ → 0 ) {\displaystyle {\vec {w}}=\Sigma ^{-1}({\vec {\mu }}_{1}-{\vec {\mu }}_{0})} c = 1 2 w → T ( μ → 1 + μ → 0 ) {\displaystyle c={\frac {1}{2}}\,{\vec {w}}^{\mathrm {T} }({\vec {\mu }}_{1}+{\vec {\mu }}_{0})} This means that the criterion of an input x → {\displaystyle {\vec {x}}} being in a class y {\displaystyle y} is purely a function of this linear combination of the known observations. It is often useful to see this conclusion in geometrical terms: the criterion of an input x → {\displaystyle {\vec {x}}} being in a class y {\displaystyle y} is purely a function of projection of multidimensional-space point x → {\displaystyle {\vec {x}}} onto vector w → {\displaystyle {\vec {w}}} (thus, we only consider its direction). In other words, the observation belongs to y {\displaystyle y} if corresponding x → {\displaystyle {\vec {x}}} is located on a certain side of a hyperplane perpendicular to w → {\displaystyle {\vec {w}}} . The location of the plane is defined by the threshold c {\displaystyle c} . == Assumptions == The assumptions of discriminant analysis are the same as those for MANOVA. The analysis is quite sensitive to outliers and the size of the smallest group must be larger than the number of predictor variables. Multivariate normality: Independent variables are normal for each level of the grouping variable. Homogeneity of variance/covariance (homoscedasticity): Variances among group variables are the same across levels of predictors. Can be tested with Box's M statistic. It has been suggested, however, that linear discriminant analysis be used when covariances are equal, and that quadratic discriminant analysis may be used when covariances are not equal. Independence: Participants are assumed to be randomly sampled, and a participant's score on one variable is assumed to be independent of scores on that variable for all other participants. It has been suggested that discriminant analysis is relatively robust to slight violations of these assumptions, and it has also been shown that discriminant analysis may still be reliable when using dichotomous variables (where multivariate normality is often violated). == Discriminant functions == Discriminant analysis works by creating one or more linear combinations of predictors, creating a new latent variable for each function. These functions are called discriminant functions. The number of functions possible is either N g − 1 {\displaystyle N_{g}-1} where N g {\displaystyle N_{g}} = number of groups, or p {\displaystyle p} (the number of predictors), whichever is smaller. The first function created maximizes the differences between groups on that function. The second function maximizes differences on that function, but also must not be correlated with the previous function. This continues with subsequent functions with the requirement that the new function not be correlated with any of the previous functions. Given group j {\displaystyle j} , with R j {\displaystyle \mathbb {R} _{j}} sets of sample space, there is a discriminant rule such that if x ∈ R j {\displaystyle x\in \mathbb {R} _{j}} , then x ∈ j {\displaystyle x\in j} . Discriminant analysis then, finds “good” regions of R j {\displaystyle \mathbb {R} _{j}} to minimize classification error, therefore leading to a high percent correct classified in the classification table. Each function is given a discriminant score to determine how well it predicts group placement. Structure Corr

    Read more →
  • Esdat

    Esdat

    ESdat is a data management, analysis and reporting software for environmental and groundwater data, developed by EarthScience Information Systems (EScIS). It is used to manage many types of environmental data including laboratory chemistry (analytical results, QA data, lab sample planning, and electronic Chain of Custody), field chemistry (water, gas, and soil), hydrogeological data (groundwater, borehole and well construction, lithological, geotechnical and stratigraphic, and LNAPL), meteorological data (rain, wind, and temperature), emission data (dust deposition, HiVol, air quality, and noise) and logger data. Data can be compared against environmental standards or site-specific trigger levels to generate exceedence tables, time series graphs, maps, statistics, and other outputs. ESdat integrates with Power BI and ArcGIS and data can also be exported in a range of other database formats, including USEPA Regions 2,4 & 5, and NYS DEC. ESdat is used by environmental consultants, government, mining and industry for validation, interrogation, and reporting of data derived from complex environmental programs, such as contaminated sites, groundwater investigations, and regulatory compliance for landfills or mining operations.

    Read more →
  • Medoid

    Medoid

    Medoids are representative objects of a data set or a cluster within a data set whose sum of dissimilarities to all the objects in the cluster is minimal. Medoids are similar in concept to means or centroids, but medoids are always restricted to be members of the data set. Medoids are most commonly used on data when a mean or centroid cannot be defined, such as graphs. They are also used in contexts where the centroid is not representative of the dataset like in images, 3-D trajectories and gene expression (where while the data is sparse the medoid need not be). These are also of interest while wanting to find a representative using some distance other than squared euclidean distance (for instance in movie-ratings). For some data sets there may be more than one medoid, as with medians. A common application of the medoid is the k-medoids clustering algorithm, which is similar to the k-means algorithm but works when a mean or centroid is not definable. This algorithm basically works as follows. First, a set of medoids is chosen at random. Second, the distances to the other points are computed. Third, data are clustered according to the medoid they are most similar to. Fourth, the medoid set is optimized via an iterative process. Note that a medoid is not equivalent to a median, a geometric median, or centroid. A median is only defined on 1-dimensional data, and it only minimizes dissimilarity to other points for metrics induced by a norm (such as the Manhattan distance or Euclidean distance). A geometric median is defined in any dimension, but unlike a medoid, it is not necessarily a point from within the original dataset. == Definition == Let X := { x 1 , x 2 , … , x n } {\textstyle {\mathcal {X}}:=\{x_{1},x_{2},\dots ,x_{n}\}} be a set of n {\textstyle n} points in a space with a distance function d. Medoid is defined as x medoid = arg ⁡ min y ∈ X ∑ i = 1 n d ( y , x i ) . {\displaystyle x_{\text{medoid}}=\arg \min _{y\in {\mathcal {X}}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}d(y,x_{i}).} == Clustering with medoids == Medoids are a popular replacement for the cluster mean when the distance function is not (squared) Euclidean distance, or not even a metric (as the medoid does not require the triangle inequality). When partitioning the data set into clusters, the medoid of each cluster can be used as a representative of each cluster. Clustering algorithms based on the idea of medoids include: Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), the standard k-medoids algorithm Hierarchical Clustering Around Medoids (HACAM), which uses medoids in hierarchical clustering == Algorithms to compute the medoid of a set == From the definition above, it is clear that the medoid of a set X {\displaystyle {\mathcal {X}}} can be computed after computing all pairwise distances between points in the ensemble. This would take O ( n 2 ) {\textstyle O(n^{2})} distance evaluations (with n = | X | {\displaystyle n=|{\mathcal {X}}|} ). In the worst case, one can not compute the medoid with fewer distance evaluations. However, there are many approaches that allow us to compute medoids either exactly or approximately in sub-quadratic time under different statistical models. If the points lie on the real line, computing the medoid reduces to computing the median which can be done in O ( n ) {\textstyle O(n)} by Quick-select algorithm of Hoare. However, in higher dimensional real spaces, no linear-time algorithm is known. RAND is an algorithm that estimates the average distance of each point to all the other points by sampling a random subset of other points. It takes a total of O ( n log ⁡ n ϵ 2 ) {\textstyle O\left({\frac {n\log n}{\epsilon ^{2}}}\right)} distance computations to approximate the medoid within a factor of ( 1 + ϵ Δ ) {\textstyle (1+\epsilon \Delta )} with high probability, where Δ {\textstyle \Delta } is the maximum distance between two points in the ensemble. Note that RAND is an approximation algorithm, and moreover Δ {\textstyle \Delta } may not be known apriori. RAND was leveraged by TOPRANK which uses the estimates obtained by RAND to focus on a small subset of candidate points, evaluates the average distance of these points exactly, and picks the minimum of those. TOPRANK needs O ( n 5 3 log 4 3 ⁡ n ) {\textstyle O(n^{\frac {5}{3}}\log ^{\frac {4}{3}}n)} distance computations to find the exact medoid with high probability under a distributional assumption on the average distances. trimed presents an algorithm to find the medoid with O ( n 3 2 2 Θ ( d ) ) {\textstyle O(n^{\frac {3}{2}}2^{\Theta (d)})} distance evaluations under a distributional assumption on the points. The algorithm uses the triangle inequality to cut down the search space. Meddit leverages a connection of the medoid computation with multi-armed bandits and uses an upper-Confidence-bound type of algorithm to get an algorithm which takes O ( n log ⁡ n ) {\textstyle O(n\log n)} distance evaluations under statistical assumptions on the points. Correlated Sequential Halving also leverages multi-armed bandit techniques, improving upon Meddit. By exploiting the correlation structure in the problem, the algorithm is able to provably yield drastic improvement (usually around 1-2 orders of magnitude) in both number of distance computations needed and wall clock time. == Implementations == An implementation of RAND, TOPRANK, and trimed can be found here. An implementation of Meddit can be found here and here. An implementation of Correlated Sequential Halving can be found here. == Medoids in text and natural language processing (NLP) == Medoids can be applied to various text and NLP tasks to improve the efficiency and accuracy of analyses. By clustering text data based on similarity, medoids can help identify representative examples within the dataset, leading to better understanding and interpretation of the data. === Text clustering === Text clustering is the process of grouping similar text or documents together based on their content. Medoid-based clustering algorithms can be employed to partition large amounts of text into clusters, with each cluster represented by a medoid document. This technique helps in organizing, summarizing, and retrieving information from large collections of documents, such as in search engines, social media analytics and recommendation systems. === Text summarization === Text summarization aims to produce a concise and coherent summary of a larger text by extracting the most important and relevant information. Medoid-based clustering can be used to identify the most representative sentences in a document or a group of documents, which can then be combined to create a summary. This approach is especially useful for extractive summarization tasks, where the goal is to generate a summary by selecting the most relevant sentences from the original text. === Sentiment analysis === Sentiment analysis involves determining the sentiment or emotion expressed in a piece of text, such as positive, negative, or neutral. Medoid-based clustering can be applied to group text data based on similar sentiment patterns. By analyzing the medoid of each cluster, researchers can gain insights into the predominant sentiment of the cluster, helping in tasks such as opinion mining, customer feedback analysis, and social media monitoring. === Topic modeling === Topic modeling is a technique used to discover abstract topics that occur in a collection of documents. Medoid-based clustering can be applied to group documents with similar themes or topics. By analyzing the medoids of these clusters, researchers can gain an understanding of the underlying topics in the text corpus, facilitating tasks such as document categorization, trend analysis, and content recommendation. === Techniques for measuring text similarity in medoid-based clustering === When applying medoid-based clustering to text data, it is essential to choose an appropriate similarity measure to compare documents effectively. Each technique has its advantages and limitations, and the choice of the similarity measure should be based on the specific requirements and characteristics of the text data being analyzed. The following are common techniques for measuring text similarity in medoid-based clustering: ==== Cosine similarity ==== Cosine similarity is a widely used measure to compare the similarity between two pieces of text. It calculates the cosine of the angle between two document vectors in a high-dimensional space. Cosine similarity ranges between -1 and 1, where a value closer to 1 indicates higher similarity, and a value closer to -1 indicates lower similarity. By visualizing two lines originating from the origin and extending to the respective points of interest, and then measuring the angle between these lines, one can determine the similarity between the associated points. Cosine similarity is less affected by document length, so it may be better at producing medoids that are representative of the content of a cluster instead of the lengt

    Read more →
  • Win–stay, lose–switch

    Win–stay, lose–switch

    In psychology, game theory, statistics, and machine learning, win–stay, lose–switch (also win–stay, lose–shift or Pavlov, named after Ivan Pavlov) is a heuristic learning strategy used to model learning in decision situations. It was first invented as an improvement over randomization in bandit problems. It was later applied to the prisoner's dilemma in order to model the evolution of altruism. In most versions, it starts either with a cooperate, then proceeds as always, or starts with a "probe" of cooperate-defect-cooperate to determine the other player's strategy. A mutual cooperation is regarded as a win. The learning rule bases its decision only on the outcome of the previous play. Outcomes are divided into successes (wins) and failures (losses). If the play on the previous round resulted in a success, then the agent plays the same strategy on the next round. Alternatively, if the play resulted in a failure the agent switches to another action. A large-scale empirical study of players of the game rock, paper, scissors shows that a variation of this strategy is adopted by real-world players of the game, instead of the Nash equilibrium strategy of choosing entirely at random between the three options.

    Read more →