The universal portfolio algorithm is a portfolio selection algorithm from the field of machine learning and information theory. The algorithm learns adaptively from historical data and maximizes log-optimal growth rate in the long run, per the Kelly criterion. It was introduced by the late Stanford University information theorist Thomas M. Cover. The algorithm rebalances the portfolio at the beginning of each trading period. At the beginning of the first trading period it starts with a naive diversification. In the following trading periods the portfolio composition depends on the historical total return of all possible constant-rebalanced portfolios. The universal portfolio algorithm is the predecessor of the various online portfolio selection methodologies.
Clesh
Clesh (clip load edit share) is a cloud-based video editing platform, created by Forbidden Technologies plc, designed for the consumers, prosumers, and online communities to integrate user-generated content. The core technology is based on FORscene which is geared towards professionals working for example in broadcasting, news media, post production. Video, audio, and graphical content is uploaded to Clesh via a standard web browser, a mobile device such as a phone / tablet, or desktop software for DV capture over FireWire. The hosted material can then be reviewed, searched, edited, and published online by anyone with a standard web browser or compatible mobile device. Clesh supports storyboard shot selection, frame-accurate editing, transitions and various other functions such as; pan, zoom, colour and light correction, and audio levels. Content can be published in formats for example; Podcast, Mpeg2, HTML video or in a proprietary Java format. Cloud-based software provides greater scope for sharing information and collaborating compared to LAN or desktop based systems. Users of cloud-based software rely on the cloud's owner for adequate security, performance and resilience. Clesh does not assert any rights over uploaded content in contrast to other platforms (such as YouTube). All rights to any content uploaded to Clesh remain with the Author. == Features == Some of the services available to Clesh users: Access via Java enabled desktops or Android smartphones or tablets Real-time video rendering including effects and transitions Multiple audio tracks Secured log-on Frame accurate timeline for fine cut editing Logging / meta-data annotation assigns text to portions of video (usable by Clesh and web search engines) Storyboard assembles rough cuts using drag-and-drop Import, host, organise and search for media (DV tape and various video, audio, and still image formats) Publish content to in formats such as podcast, MPEG-2, web (Java Applet), Flash, Ogg, HTML and JPEG Chatrooms to talk to other Clesh users Showreel (a gallery for publishing material visible to internet users) Moderation for approval of material prior to distribution downstream Re-branding and integration support for white-label deployment == Technology == Clesh is based on the same technology as FORscene. An array of servers on the internet backbone provide the cloud computing platform to host Clesh. As a white-label solution Clesh would be branded and hosted per the client requirement. == User interface == End-users access Clesh on clients such as standard Java-enabled Web Browsers and / or Android enabled mobile devices such as tablets and smartphones. == History == Clesh was launched January 2006 and subject to several upgrades during the year to extend functionality including; storyboard, podcasting, moderation, chat and a showreel. During 2007 consumers are offered Clesh via a subscription model. Upgrades include Web Start and graphics upload. Mr Paparazzi selects Clesh as the platform to host its video offering and TrueTube does the same in 2008 by choosing to use Clesh to manage its video portal. Several further upgrades are applied and include; better audio quality, image enhancement controls, transitions, fades, titles, and additional publishing options such as JPEG. In 2010 a version of Clesh is demonstrated on an Android OS tablet device (Samsung Galaxy S Tab), and several upgrades are applied including; HTML publishing, pan, zoom, and overlays.
Error-driven learning
In reinforcement learning, error-driven learning is a method for adjusting a model's (intelligent agent's) parameters based on the difference between its output results and the ground truth. These models stand out as they depend on environmental feedback, rather than explicit labels or categories. They are based on the idea that language acquisition involves the minimization of the prediction error (MPSE). By leveraging these prediction errors, the models consistently refine expectations and decrease computational complexity. Typically, these algorithms are operated by the GeneRec algorithm. Error-driven learning has widespread applications in cognitive sciences and computer vision. These methods have also found successful application in natural language processing (NLP), including areas like part-of-speech tagging, parsing, named entity recognition (NER), machine translation (MT), speech recognition (SR), and dialogue systems. == Formal Definition == Error-driven learning models are ones that rely on the feedback of prediction errors to adjust the expectations or parameters of a model. The key components of error-driven learning include the following: A set S {\displaystyle S} of states representing the different situations that the learner can encounter. A set A {\displaystyle A} of actions that the learner can take in each state. A prediction function P ( s , a ) {\displaystyle P(s,a)} that gives the learner's current prediction of the outcome of taking action a {\displaystyle a} in state s {\displaystyle s} . An error function E ( o , p ) {\displaystyle E(o,p)} that compares the actual outcome o {\displaystyle o} with the prediction p {\displaystyle p} and produces an error value. An update rule U ( p , e ) {\displaystyle U(p,e)} that adjusts the prediction p {\displaystyle p} in light of the error e {\displaystyle e} . == Algorithms == Error-driven learning algorithms refer to a category of reinforcement learning algorithms that leverage the disparity between the real output and the expected output of a system to regulate the system's parameters. Typically applied in supervised learning, these algorithms are provided with a collection of input-output pairs to facilitate the process of generalization. The widely utilized error backpropagation learning algorithm is known as GeneRec, a generalized recirculation algorithm primarily employed for gene prediction in DNA sequences. Many other error-driven learning algorithms are derived from alternative versions of GeneRec. == Applications == === Cognitive science === Simpler error-driven learning models effectively capture complex human cognitive phenomena and anticipate elusive behaviors. They provide a flexible mechanism for modeling the brain's learning process, encompassing perception, attention, memory, and decision-making. By using errors as guiding signals, these algorithms adeptly adapt to changing environmental demands and objectives, capturing statistical regularities and structure. Furthermore, cognitive science has led to the creation of new error-driven learning algorithms that are both biologically acceptable and computationally efficient. These algorithms, including deep belief networks, spiking neural networks, and reservoir computing, follow the principles and constraints of the brain and nervous system. Their primary aim is to capture the emergent properties and dynamics of neural circuits and systems. === Computer vision === Computer vision is a complex task that involves understanding and interpreting visual data, such as images or videos. In the context of error-driven learning, the computer vision model learns from the mistakes it makes during the interpretation process. When an error is encountered, the model updates its internal parameters to avoid making the same mistake in the future. This repeated process of learning from errors helps improve the model's performance over time. For NLP to do well at computer vision, it employs deep learning techniques. This form of computer vision is sometimes called neural computer vision (NCV), since it makes use of neural networks. NCV therefore interprets visual data based on a statistical, trial and error approach and can deal with context and other subtleties of visual data. === Natural Language Processing === ==== Part-of-speech tagging ==== Part-of-speech (POS) tagging is a crucial component in Natural Language Processing (NLP). It helps resolve human language ambiguity at different analysis levels. In addition, its output (tagged data) can be used in various applications of NLP such as information extraction, information retrieval, question Answering, speech eecognition, text-to-speech conversion, partial parsing, and grammar correction. ==== Parsing ==== Parsing in NLP involves breaking down a text into smaller pieces (phrases) based on grammar rules. If a sentence cannot be parsed, it may contain grammatical errors. In the context of error-driven learning, the parser learns from the mistakes it makes during the parsing process. When an error is encountered, the parser updates its internal model to avoid making the same mistake in the future. This iterative process of learning from errors helps improve the parser's performance over time. In conclusion, error-driven learning plays a crucial role in improving the accuracy and efficiency of NLP parsers by allowing them to learn from their mistakes and adapt their internal models accordingly. ==== Named entity recognition (NER) ==== NER is the task of identifying and classifying entities (such as persons, locations, organizations, etc.) in a text. Error-driven learning can help the model learn from its false positives and false negatives and improve its recall and precision on (NER). In the context of error-driven learning, the significance of NER is quite profound. Traditional sequence labeling methods identify nested entities layer by layer. If an error occurs in the recognition of an inner entity, it can lead to incorrect identification of the outer entity, leading to a problem known as error propagation of nested entities. This is where the role of NER becomes crucial in error-driven learning. By accurately recognizing and classifying entities, it can help minimize these errors and improve the overall accuracy of the learning process. Furthermore, deep learning-based NER methods have shown to be more accurate as they are capable of assembling words, enabling them to understand the semantic and syntactic relationship between various words better. ==== Machine translation ==== Machine translation is a complex task that involves converting text from one language to another. In the context of error-driven learning, the machine translation model learns from the mistakes it makes during the translation process. When an error is encountered, the model updates its internal parameters to avoid making the same mistake in the future. This iterative process of learning from errors helps improve the model's performance over time. ==== Speech recognition ==== Speech recognition is a complex task that involves converting spoken language into written text. In the context of error-driven learning, the speech recognition model learns from the mistakes it makes during the recognition process. When an error is encountered, the model updates its internal parameters to avoid making the same mistake in the future. This iterative process of learning from errors helps improve the model's performance over time. ==== Dialogue systems ==== Dialogue systems are a popular NLP task as they have promising real-life applications. They are also complicated tasks since many NLP tasks deserving study are involved. In the context of error-driven learning, the dialogue system learns from the mistakes it makes during the dialogue process. When an error is encountered, the model updates its internal parameters to avoid making the same mistake in the future. This iterative process of learning from errors helps improve the model's performance over time. == Advantages == Error-driven learning has several advantages over other types of machine learning algorithms: They can learn from feedback and correct their mistakes, which makes them adaptive and robust to noise and changes in the data. They can handle large and high-dimensional data sets, as they do not require explicit feature engineering or prior knowledge of the data distribution. They can achieve high accuracy and performance, as they can learn complex and nonlinear relationships between the input and the output. == Limitations == Although error driven learning has its advantages, their algorithms also have the following limitations: They can suffer from overfitting, which means that they memorize the training data and fail to generalize to new and unseen data. This can be mitigated by using regularization techniques, such as adding a penalty term to the loss function, or reducing the complexity of the model. They can be sensitive to the choice of
Gaussian process emulator
In statistics, Gaussian process emulator is one name for a general type of statistical model that has been used in contexts where the problem is to make maximum use of the outputs of a complicated (often non-random) computer-based simulation model. Each run of the simulation model is computationally expensive and each run is based on many different controlling inputs. The variation of the outputs of the simulation model is expected to vary reasonably smoothly with the inputs, but in an unknown way. The overall analysis involves two models: the simulation model, or "simulator", and the statistical model, or "emulator", which notionally emulates the unknown outputs from the simulator. The Gaussian process emulator model treats the problem from the viewpoint of Bayesian statistics. In this approach, even though the output of the simulation model is fixed for any given set of inputs, the actual outputs are unknown unless the computer model is run and hence can be made the subject of a Bayesian analysis. The main element of the Gaussian process emulator model is that it models the outputs as a Gaussian process on a space that is defined by the model inputs. The model includes a description of the correlation or covariance of the outputs, which enables the model to encompass the idea that differences in the output will be small if there are only small differences in the inputs.
Mean squared prediction error
In statistics the mean squared prediction error (MSPE), also known as mean squared error of the predictions, of a smoothing, curve fitting, or regression procedure is the expected value of the squared prediction errors (PE), the square difference between the fitted values implied by the predictive function g ^ {\displaystyle {\widehat {g}}} and the values of the (unobservable) true value g. It is an inverse measure of the explanatory power of g ^ , {\displaystyle {\widehat {g}},} and can be used in the process of cross-validation of an estimated model. Knowledge of g would be required in order to calculate the MSPE exactly; in practice, MSPE is estimated. == Formulation == If the smoothing or fitting procedure has projection matrix (i.e., hat matrix) L, which maps the observed values vector y {\displaystyle y} to predicted values vector y ^ = L y , {\displaystyle {\hat {y}}=Ly,} then PE and MSPE are formulated as: P E i = g ( x i ) − g ^ ( x i ) , {\displaystyle \operatorname {PE_{i}} =g(x_{i})-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i}),} MSPE = E [ PE i 2 ] = ∑ i = 1 n PE i 2 / n . {\displaystyle \operatorname {MSPE} =\operatorname {E} \left[\operatorname {PE} _{i}^{2}\right]=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\operatorname {PE} _{i}^{2}/n.} The MSPE can be decomposed into two terms: the squared bias (mean error) of the fitted values and the variance of the fitted values: MSPE = ME 2 + VAR , {\displaystyle \operatorname {MSPE} =\operatorname {ME} ^{2}+\operatorname {VAR} ,} ME = E [ g ^ ( x i ) − g ( x i ) ] {\displaystyle \operatorname {ME} =\operatorname {E} \left[{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})-g(x_{i})\right]} VAR = E [ ( g ^ ( x i ) − E [ g ( x i ) ] ) 2 ] . {\displaystyle \operatorname {VAR} =\operatorname {E} \left[\left({\widehat {g}}(x_{i})-\operatorname {E} \left[{g}(x_{i})\right]\right)^{2}\right].} The quantity SSPE=nMSPE is called sum squared prediction error. The root mean squared prediction error is the square root of MSPE: RMSPE=√MSPE. == Computation of MSPE over out-of-sample data == The mean squared prediction error can be computed exactly in two contexts. First, with a data sample of length n, the data analyst may run the regression over only q of the data points (with q < n), holding back the other n – q data points with the specific purpose of using them to compute the estimated model’s MSPE out of sample (i.e., not using data that were used in the model estimation process). Since the regression process is tailored to the q in-sample points, normally the in-sample MSPE will be smaller than the out-of-sample one computed over the n – q held-back points. If the increase in the MSPE out of sample compared to in sample is relatively slight, that results in the model being viewed favorably. And if two models are to be compared, the one with the lower MSPE over the n – q out-of-sample data points is viewed more favorably, regardless of the models’ relative in-sample performances. The out-of-sample MSPE in this context is exact for the out-of-sample data points that it was computed over, but is merely an estimate of the model’s MSPE for the mostly unobserved population from which the data were drawn. Second, as time goes on more data may become available to the data analyst, and then the MSPE can be computed over these new data. == Estimation of MSPE over the population == When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows. For the model y i = g ( x i ) + σ ε i {\displaystyle y_{i}=g(x_{i})+\sigma \varepsilon _{i}} where ε i ∼ N ( 0 , 1 ) {\displaystyle \varepsilon _{i}\sim {\mathcal {N}}(0,1)} , one may write n ⋅ MSPE ( L ) = g T ( I − L ) T ( I − L ) g + σ 2 tr [ L T L ] . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {MSPE} (L)=g^{\text{T}}(I-L)^{\text{T}}(I-L)g+\sigma ^{2}\operatorname {tr} \left[L^{\text{T}}L\right].} Using in-sample data values, the first term on the right side is equivalent to ∑ i = 1 n ( E [ g ( x i ) − g ^ ( x i ) ] ) 2 = E [ ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 ] − σ 2 tr [ ( I − L ) T ( I − L ) ] . {\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(\operatorname {E} \left[g(x_{i})-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right]\right)^{2}=\operatorname {E} \left[\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}\right]-\sigma ^{2}\operatorname {tr} \left[\left(I-L\right)^{T}\left(I-L\right)\right].} Thus, n ⋅ MSPE ( L ) = E [ ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 ] − σ 2 ( n − tr [ L ] ) . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {MSPE} (L)=\operatorname {E} \left[\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}\right]-\sigma ^{2}\left(n-\operatorname {tr} \left[L\right]\right).} If σ 2 {\displaystyle \sigma ^{2}} is known or well-estimated by σ ^ 2 {\displaystyle {\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}} , it becomes possible to estimate MSPE by n ⋅ M S P E ^ ( L ) = ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 − σ ^ 2 ( n − tr [ L ] ) . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {\widehat {MSPE}} (L)=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}-{\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}\left(n-\operatorname {tr} \left[L\right]\right).} Colin Mallows advocated this method in the construction of his model selection statistic Cp, which is a normalized version of the estimated MSPE: C p = ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 σ ^ 2 − n + 2 p . {\displaystyle C_{p}={\frac {\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}}{{\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}}}-n+2p.} where p the number of estimated parameters p and σ ^ 2 {\displaystyle {\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}} is computed from the version of the model that includes all possible regressors. That concludes this proof.
Elowan
Elowan is a plant-robot cyborg. Using its own internal bioelectrical signals, The plant has a robotic extension that makes it move towards light sources. Electrodes are inserted into the leaves, stem, and ground to detect the faint bioelectrical signals the plant produces. Then they are amplified so the robot can read them. So when the plant "wants" to go to light, the cyborg automatically goes to the nearest light source. Future extensions of the robot could provide: Protection, growth frameworks, and nutrients. Other factors that could make the cyborg move are temperature, soil, and gravity conditions Elowan is one in a series of plant-electronic hybrid experiments.
C4.5 algorithm
C4.5 is an algorithm used to generate a decision tree developed by Ross Quinlan. C4.5 is an extension of Quinlan's earlier ID3 algorithm. The decision trees generated by C4.5 can be used for classification, and for this reason, C4.5 is often referred to as a statistical classifier. In 2011, authors of the Weka machine learning software described the C4.5 algorithm as "a landmark decision tree program that is probably the machine learning workhorse most widely used in practice to date". It became quite popular after ranking #1 in the Top 10 Algorithms in Data Mining pre-eminent paper published by Springer LNCS in 2008. == Algorithm == C4.5 builds decision trees from a set of training data in the same way as ID3, using the concept of information entropy. The training data is a set S = s 1 , s 2 , . . . {\displaystyle S={s_{1},s_{2},...}} of already classified samples. Each sample s i {\displaystyle s_{i}} consists of a p-dimensional vector ( x 1 , i , x 2 , i , . . . , x p , i ) {\displaystyle (x_{1,i},x_{2,i},...,x_{p,i})} , where the x j {\displaystyle x_{j}} represent attribute values or features of the sample, as well as the class in which s i {\displaystyle s_{i}} falls. At each node of the tree, C4.5 chooses the attribute of the data that most effectively splits its set of samples into subsets enriched in one class or the other. The splitting criterion is the normalized information gain (difference in entropy). The attribute with the highest normalized information gain is chosen to make the decision. The C4.5 algorithm then recurses on the partitioned sublists. This algorithm has a few base cases. All the samples in the list belong to the same class. When this happens, it simply creates a leaf node for the decision tree saying to choose that class. None of the features provide any information gain. In this case, C4.5 creates a decision node higher up the tree using the expected value of the class. Instance of previously unseen class encountered. Again, C4.5 creates a decision node higher up the tree using the expected value. === Pseudocode === In pseudocode, the general algorithm for building decision trees is: Check for the above base cases. For each attribute a, find the normalized information gain ratio from splitting on a. Let a_best be the attribute with the highest normalized information gain. Create a decision node that splits on a_best. Recurse on the sublists obtained by splitting on a_best, and add those nodes as children of node. == Improvements from ID3 algorithm == C4.5 made a number of improvements to ID3. Some of these are: Handling both continuous and discrete attributes: In order to handle continuous attributes, C4.5 creates a threshold and then splits the list into those whose attribute value is above the threshold and those that are less than or equal to it. Handling training data with missing attribute values: C4.5 allows attribute values to be marked as missing. Missing attribute values are simply not used in gain and entropy calculations. Handling attributes with differing costs. Pruning trees after creation: C4.5 goes back through the tree once it's been created and attempts to remove branches that do not help by replacing them with leaf nodes. == Improvements in C5.0/See5 algorithm == Quinlan went on to create C5.0 and See5 (C5.0 for Unix/Linux, See5 for Windows) which he markets commercially. C5.0 offers a number of improvements on C4.5. Some of these are: Speed - C5.0 is significantly faster than C4.5 (several orders of magnitude) Memory usage - C5.0 is more memory efficient than C4.5 Smaller decision trees - C5.0 gets similar results to C4.5 with considerably smaller decision trees. Support for boosting - Boosting improves the trees and gives them more accuracy. Weighting - C5.0 allows you to weight different cases and misclassification types. Winnowing - a C5.0 option automatically winnows the attributes to remove those that may be unhelpful. Source for a single-threaded Linux version of C5.0 is available under the GNU General Public License (GPL).