Autonomic computing (AC) is distributed computing resources with self-managing characteristics, adapting to unpredictable changes while hiding intrinsic complexity to operators and users. Initiated by IBM in 2001, this initiative ultimately aimed to develop computer systems capable of self-management, to overcome the rapidly growing complexity of computing systems management, and to reduce the barrier that complexity poses to further growth. == Description == The AC system concept is designed to make adaptive decisions, using high-level policies. It will constantly check and optimize its status and automatically adapt itself to changing conditions. An autonomic computing framework is composed of autonomic components (AC) interacting with each other. An AC can be modeled in terms of two main control schemes (local and global) with sensors (for self-monitoring), effectors (for self-adjustment), knowledge and planner/adapter for exploiting policies based on self- and environment awareness. This architecture is sometimes referred to as Monitor-Analyze-Plan-Execute (MAPE). Driven by such vision, a variety of architectural frameworks based on "self-regulating" autonomic components has been recently proposed. A similar trend has recently characterized significant research in the area of multi-agent systems. However, most of these approaches are typically conceived with centralized or cluster-based server architectures in mind and mostly address the need of reducing management costs rather than the need of enabling complex software systems or providing innovative services. Some autonomic systems involve mobile agents interacting via loosely coupled communication mechanisms. Autonomy-oriented computation is a paradigm proposed by Jiming Liu in 2001 that uses artificial systems imitating social animals' collective behaviours to solve difficult computational problems. For example, ant colony optimization could be studied in this paradigm. == Problem of growing complexity == Forecasts suggested that the computing devices in use would grow at 38% per year and the average complexity of each device was increasing. This volume and complexity was managed by highly skilled humans; but the demand for skilled IT personnel was already outstripping supply, with labour costs exceeding equipment costs by a ratio of up to 18:1. Computing systems have brought great benefits of speed and automation but there is now an overwhelming economic need to automate their maintenance. In a 2003 IEEE Computer article, Kephart and Chess warn that the dream of interconnectivity of computing systems and devices could become the "nightmare of pervasive computing" in which architects are unable to anticipate, design and maintain the complexity of interactions. They state the essence of autonomic computing is system self-management, freeing administrators from low-level task management while delivering better system behavior. A general problem of modern distributed computing systems is that their complexity, and in particular the complexity of their management, is becoming a significant limiting factor in their further development. Large companies and institutions are employing large-scale computer networks for communication and computation. The distributed applications running on these computer networks are diverse and deal with multiple tasks, ranging from internal control processes to presenting web content to customer support. Additionally, mobile computing is pervading these networks at an increasing speed: employees need to communicate with their companies while they are not in their office. They do so by using laptops, personal digital assistants, or mobile phones with diverse forms of wireless technologies to access their companies' data. This creates an enormous complexity in the overall computer network which is hard to control manually by human operators. Manual control is time-consuming, expensive, and error-prone. The manual effort needed to control a growing networked computer-system tends to increase quickly. 80% of such problems in infrastructure happen at the client specific application and database layer. Most 'autonomic' service providers guarantee only up to the basic plumbing layer (power, hardware, operating system, network and basic database parameters). == Characteristics of autonomic systems == A possible solution could be to enable modern, networked computing systems to manage themselves without direct human intervention. The Autonomic Computing Initiative (ACI) aims at providing the foundation for autonomic systems. It is inspired by the autonomic nervous system of the human body. This nervous system controls important bodily functions (e.g. respiration, heart rate, and blood pressure) without any conscious intervention. In a self-managing autonomic system, the human operator takes on a new role: instead of controlling the system directly, he/she defines general policies and rules that guide the self-management process. For this process, IBM defined the following four types of property referred to as self-star (also called self-, self-x, or auto-) properties. Self-configuration: Automatic configuration of components; Self-healing: Automatic discovery, and correction of faults; Self-optimization: Automatic monitoring and control of resources to ensure the optimal functioning with respect to the defined requirements; Self-protection: Proactive identification and protection from arbitrary attacks. Others such as Poslad and Nami and Sharifi have expanded on the set of self-star as follows: Self-regulation: A system that operates to maintain some parameter, e.g., Quality of service, within a reset range without external control; Self-learning: Systems use machine learning techniques such as unsupervised learning which does not require external control; Self-awareness (also called Self-inspection and Self-decision): System must know itself. It must know the extent of its own resources and the resources it links to. A system must be aware of its internal components and external links in order to control and manage them; Self-organization: System structure driven by physics-type models without explicit pressure or involvement from outside the system; Self-creation (also called Self-assembly, Self-replication): System driven by ecological and social type models without explicit pressure or involvement from outside the system. A system's members are self-motivated and self-driven, generating complexity and order in a creative response to a continuously changing strategic demand; Self-management (also called self-governance): A system that manages itself without external intervention. What is being managed can vary dependent on the system and application. Self -management also refers to a set of self-star processes such as autonomic computing rather than a single self-star process; Self-description (also called self-explanation or Self-representation): A system explains itself. It is capable of being understood (by humans) without further explanation. IBM has set forth eight conditions that define an autonomic system: The system must know itself in terms of what resources it has access to, what its capabilities and limitations are and how and why it is connected to other systems; be able to automatically configure and reconfigure itself depending on the changing computing environment; be able to optimize its performance to ensure the most efficient computing process; be able to work around encountered problems by either repairing itself or routing functions away from the trouble; detect, identify and protect itself against various types of attacks to maintain overall system security and integrity; adapt to its environment as it changes, interacting with neighboring systems and establishing communication protocols; rely on open standards and cannot exist in a proprietary environment; anticipate the demand on its resources while staying transparent to users. Even though the purpose and thus the behaviour of autonomic systems vary from system to system, every autonomic system should be able to exhibit a minimum set of properties to achieve its purpose: Automatic: This essentially means being able to self-control its internal functions and operations. As such, an autonomic system must be self-contained and able to start-up and operate without any manual intervention or external help. Again, the knowledge required to bootstrap the system (Know-how) must be inherent to the system. Adaptive: An autonomic system must be able to change its operation (i.e., its configuration, state and functions). This will allow the system to cope with temporal and spatial changes in its operational context either long term (environment customisation/optimisation) or short term (exceptional conditions such as malicious attacks, faults, etc.). Aware: An autonomic system must be able to monitor (sense) its operational context as well as its internal state in order to be able to asses
Similarity learning
Similarity learning is an area of supervised machine learning in artificial intelligence. It is closely related to regression and classification, but the goal is to learn a similarity function that measures how similar or related two objects are. It has applications in ranking, in recommendation systems, visual identity tracking, face verification, and speaker verification. == Learning setup == There are four common setups for similarity and metric distance learning. Regression similarity learning In this setup, pairs of objects are given ( x i 1 , x i 2 ) {\displaystyle (x_{i}^{1},x_{i}^{2})} together with a measure of their similarity y i ∈ R {\displaystyle y_{i}\in R} . The goal is to learn a function that approximates f ( x i 1 , x i 2 ) ∼ y i {\displaystyle f(x_{i}^{1},x_{i}^{2})\sim y_{i}} for every new labeled triplet example ( x i 1 , x i 2 , y i ) {\displaystyle (x_{i}^{1},x_{i}^{2},y_{i})} . This is typically achieved by minimizing a regularized loss min W ∑ i l o s s ( w ; x i 1 , x i 2 , y i ) + r e g ( w ) {\displaystyle \min _{W}\sum _{i}loss(w;x_{i}^{1},x_{i}^{2},y_{i})+reg(w)} . Classification similarity learning Given are pairs of similar objects ( x i , x i + ) {\displaystyle (x_{i},x_{i}^{+})} and non similar objects ( x i , x i − ) {\displaystyle (x_{i},x_{i}^{-})} . An equivalent formulation is that every pair ( x i 1 , x i 2 ) {\displaystyle (x_{i}^{1},x_{i}^{2})} is given together with a binary label y i ∈ { 0 , 1 } {\displaystyle y_{i}\in \{0,1\}} that determines if the two objects are similar or not. The goal is again to learn a classifier that can decide if a new pair of objects is similar or not. Ranking similarity learning Given are triplets of objects ( x i , x i + , x i − ) {\displaystyle (x_{i},x_{i}^{+},x_{i}^{-})} whose relative similarity obey a predefined order: x i {\displaystyle x_{i}} is known to be more similar to x i + {\displaystyle x_{i}^{+}} than to x i − {\displaystyle x_{i}^{-}} . The goal is to learn a function f {\displaystyle f} such that for any new triplet of objects ( x , x + , x − ) {\displaystyle (x,x^{+},x^{-})} , it obeys f ( x , x + ) > f ( x , x − ) {\displaystyle f(x,x^{+})>f(x,x^{-})} (contrastive learning). This setup assumes a weaker form of supervision than in regression, because instead of providing an exact measure of similarity, one only has to provide the relative order of similarity. For this reason, ranking-based similarity learning is easier to apply in real large-scale applications. Locality sensitive hashing (LSH) Hashes input items so that similar items map to the same "buckets" in memory with high probability (the number of buckets being much smaller than the universe of possible input items). It is often applied in nearest neighbor search on large-scale high-dimensional data, e.g., image databases, document collections, time-series databases, and genome databases. A common approach for learning similarity is to model the similarity function as a bilinear form. For example, in the case of ranking similarity learning, one aims to learn a matrix W that parametrizes the similarity function f W ( x , z ) = x T W z {\displaystyle f_{W}(x,z)=x^{T}Wz} . When data is abundant, a common approach is to learn a siamese network – a deep network model with parameter sharing. == Metric learning == Similarity learning is closely related to distance metric learning. Metric learning is the task of learning a distance function over objects. A metric or distance function has to obey four axioms: non-negativity, identity of indiscernibles, symmetry and subadditivity (or the triangle inequality). In practice, metric learning algorithms ignore the condition of identity of indiscernibles and learn a pseudo-metric. When the objects x i {\displaystyle x_{i}} are vectors in R d {\displaystyle R^{d}} , then any matrix W {\displaystyle W} in the symmetric positive semi-definite cone S + d {\displaystyle S_{+}^{d}} defines a distance pseudo-metric of the space of x through the form D W ( x 1 , x 2 ) 2 = ( x 1 − x 2 ) ⊤ W ( x 1 − x 2 ) {\displaystyle D_{W}(x_{1},x_{2})^{2}=(x_{1}-x_{2})^{\top }W(x_{1}-x_{2})} . When W {\displaystyle W} is a symmetric positive definite matrix, D W {\displaystyle D_{W}} is a metric. Moreover, as any symmetric positive semi-definite matrix W ∈ S + d {\displaystyle W\in S_{+}^{d}} can be decomposed as W = L ⊤ L {\displaystyle W=L^{\top }L} where L ∈ R e × d {\displaystyle L\in R^{e\times d}} and e ≥ r a n k ( W ) {\displaystyle e\geq rank(W)} , the distance function D W {\displaystyle D_{W}} can be rewritten equivalently D W ( x 1 , x 2 ) 2 = ( x 1 − x 2 ) ⊤ L ⊤ L ( x 1 − x 2 ) = ‖ L ( x 1 − x 2 ) ‖ 2 2 {\displaystyle D_{W}(x_{1},x_{2})^{2}=(x_{1}-x_{2})^{\top }L^{\top }L(x_{1}-x_{2})=\|L(x_{1}-x_{2})\|_{2}^{2}} . The distance D W ( x 1 , x 2 ) 2 = ‖ x 1 ′ − x 2 ′ ‖ 2 2 {\displaystyle D_{W}(x_{1},x_{2})^{2}=\|x_{1}'-x_{2}'\|_{2}^{2}} corresponds to the Euclidean distance between the transformed feature vectors x 1 ′ = L x 1 {\displaystyle x_{1}'=Lx_{1}} and x 2 ′ = L x 2 {\displaystyle x_{2}'=Lx_{2}} . Many formulations for metric learning have been proposed. Some well-known approaches for metric learning include learning from relative comparisons, which is based on the triplet loss, large margin nearest neighbor, and information theoretic metric learning (ITML). In statistics, the covariance matrix of the data is sometimes used to define a distance metric called Mahalanobis distance. == Applications == Similarity learning is used in information retrieval for learning to rank, in face verification or face identification, and in recommendation systems. Also, many machine learning approaches rely on some metric. This includes unsupervised learning such as clustering, which groups together close or similar objects. It also includes supervised approaches like K-nearest neighbor algorithm which rely on labels of nearby objects to decide on the label of a new object. Metric learning has been proposed as a preprocessing step for many of these approaches. == Scalability == Metric and similarity learning scale quadratically with the dimension of the input space, as can easily see when the learned metric has a bilinear form f W ( x , z ) = x T W z {\displaystyle f_{W}(x,z)=x^{T}Wz} . Scaling to higher dimensions can be achieved by enforcing a sparseness structure over the matrix model, as done with HDSL, and with COMET. == Software == metric-learn is a free software Python library which offers efficient implementations of several supervised and weakly-supervised similarity and metric learning algorithms. The API of metric-learn is compatible with scikit-learn. OpenMetricLearning is a Python framework to train and validate the models producing high-quality embeddings. == Further information == For further information on this topic, see the surveys on metric and similarity learning by Bellet et al. and Kulis.
Similarity learning
Similarity learning is an area of supervised machine learning in artificial intelligence. It is closely related to regression and classification, but the goal is to learn a similarity function that measures how similar or related two objects are. It has applications in ranking, in recommendation systems, visual identity tracking, face verification, and speaker verification. == Learning setup == There are four common setups for similarity and metric distance learning. Regression similarity learning In this setup, pairs of objects are given ( x i 1 , x i 2 ) {\displaystyle (x_{i}^{1},x_{i}^{2})} together with a measure of their similarity y i ∈ R {\displaystyle y_{i}\in R} . The goal is to learn a function that approximates f ( x i 1 , x i 2 ) ∼ y i {\displaystyle f(x_{i}^{1},x_{i}^{2})\sim y_{i}} for every new labeled triplet example ( x i 1 , x i 2 , y i ) {\displaystyle (x_{i}^{1},x_{i}^{2},y_{i})} . This is typically achieved by minimizing a regularized loss min W ∑ i l o s s ( w ; x i 1 , x i 2 , y i ) + r e g ( w ) {\displaystyle \min _{W}\sum _{i}loss(w;x_{i}^{1},x_{i}^{2},y_{i})+reg(w)} . Classification similarity learning Given are pairs of similar objects ( x i , x i + ) {\displaystyle (x_{i},x_{i}^{+})} and non similar objects ( x i , x i − ) {\displaystyle (x_{i},x_{i}^{-})} . An equivalent formulation is that every pair ( x i 1 , x i 2 ) {\displaystyle (x_{i}^{1},x_{i}^{2})} is given together with a binary label y i ∈ { 0 , 1 } {\displaystyle y_{i}\in \{0,1\}} that determines if the two objects are similar or not. The goal is again to learn a classifier that can decide if a new pair of objects is similar or not. Ranking similarity learning Given are triplets of objects ( x i , x i + , x i − ) {\displaystyle (x_{i},x_{i}^{+},x_{i}^{-})} whose relative similarity obey a predefined order: x i {\displaystyle x_{i}} is known to be more similar to x i + {\displaystyle x_{i}^{+}} than to x i − {\displaystyle x_{i}^{-}} . The goal is to learn a function f {\displaystyle f} such that for any new triplet of objects ( x , x + , x − ) {\displaystyle (x,x^{+},x^{-})} , it obeys f ( x , x + ) > f ( x , x − ) {\displaystyle f(x,x^{+})>f(x,x^{-})} (contrastive learning). This setup assumes a weaker form of supervision than in regression, because instead of providing an exact measure of similarity, one only has to provide the relative order of similarity. For this reason, ranking-based similarity learning is easier to apply in real large-scale applications. Locality sensitive hashing (LSH) Hashes input items so that similar items map to the same "buckets" in memory with high probability (the number of buckets being much smaller than the universe of possible input items). It is often applied in nearest neighbor search on large-scale high-dimensional data, e.g., image databases, document collections, time-series databases, and genome databases. A common approach for learning similarity is to model the similarity function as a bilinear form. For example, in the case of ranking similarity learning, one aims to learn a matrix W that parametrizes the similarity function f W ( x , z ) = x T W z {\displaystyle f_{W}(x,z)=x^{T}Wz} . When data is abundant, a common approach is to learn a siamese network – a deep network model with parameter sharing. == Metric learning == Similarity learning is closely related to distance metric learning. Metric learning is the task of learning a distance function over objects. A metric or distance function has to obey four axioms: non-negativity, identity of indiscernibles, symmetry and subadditivity (or the triangle inequality). In practice, metric learning algorithms ignore the condition of identity of indiscernibles and learn a pseudo-metric. When the objects x i {\displaystyle x_{i}} are vectors in R d {\displaystyle R^{d}} , then any matrix W {\displaystyle W} in the symmetric positive semi-definite cone S + d {\displaystyle S_{+}^{d}} defines a distance pseudo-metric of the space of x through the form D W ( x 1 , x 2 ) 2 = ( x 1 − x 2 ) ⊤ W ( x 1 − x 2 ) {\displaystyle D_{W}(x_{1},x_{2})^{2}=(x_{1}-x_{2})^{\top }W(x_{1}-x_{2})} . When W {\displaystyle W} is a symmetric positive definite matrix, D W {\displaystyle D_{W}} is a metric. Moreover, as any symmetric positive semi-definite matrix W ∈ S + d {\displaystyle W\in S_{+}^{d}} can be decomposed as W = L ⊤ L {\displaystyle W=L^{\top }L} where L ∈ R e × d {\displaystyle L\in R^{e\times d}} and e ≥ r a n k ( W ) {\displaystyle e\geq rank(W)} , the distance function D W {\displaystyle D_{W}} can be rewritten equivalently D W ( x 1 , x 2 ) 2 = ( x 1 − x 2 ) ⊤ L ⊤ L ( x 1 − x 2 ) = ‖ L ( x 1 − x 2 ) ‖ 2 2 {\displaystyle D_{W}(x_{1},x_{2})^{2}=(x_{1}-x_{2})^{\top }L^{\top }L(x_{1}-x_{2})=\|L(x_{1}-x_{2})\|_{2}^{2}} . The distance D W ( x 1 , x 2 ) 2 = ‖ x 1 ′ − x 2 ′ ‖ 2 2 {\displaystyle D_{W}(x_{1},x_{2})^{2}=\|x_{1}'-x_{2}'\|_{2}^{2}} corresponds to the Euclidean distance between the transformed feature vectors x 1 ′ = L x 1 {\displaystyle x_{1}'=Lx_{1}} and x 2 ′ = L x 2 {\displaystyle x_{2}'=Lx_{2}} . Many formulations for metric learning have been proposed. Some well-known approaches for metric learning include learning from relative comparisons, which is based on the triplet loss, large margin nearest neighbor, and information theoretic metric learning (ITML). In statistics, the covariance matrix of the data is sometimes used to define a distance metric called Mahalanobis distance. == Applications == Similarity learning is used in information retrieval for learning to rank, in face verification or face identification, and in recommendation systems. Also, many machine learning approaches rely on some metric. This includes unsupervised learning such as clustering, which groups together close or similar objects. It also includes supervised approaches like K-nearest neighbor algorithm which rely on labels of nearby objects to decide on the label of a new object. Metric learning has been proposed as a preprocessing step for many of these approaches. == Scalability == Metric and similarity learning scale quadratically with the dimension of the input space, as can easily see when the learned metric has a bilinear form f W ( x , z ) = x T W z {\displaystyle f_{W}(x,z)=x^{T}Wz} . Scaling to higher dimensions can be achieved by enforcing a sparseness structure over the matrix model, as done with HDSL, and with COMET. == Software == metric-learn is a free software Python library which offers efficient implementations of several supervised and weakly-supervised similarity and metric learning algorithms. The API of metric-learn is compatible with scikit-learn. OpenMetricLearning is a Python framework to train and validate the models producing high-quality embeddings. == Further information == For further information on this topic, see the surveys on metric and similarity learning by Bellet et al. and Kulis.
Semantic analysis (machine learning)
In machine learning, semantic analysis of a text corpus is the task of building structures that approximate concepts from a large set of documents. It generally does not involve prior semantic understanding of the documents. Semantic analysis strategies include: Metalanguages based on first-order logic, which can analyze the speech of humans. Understanding the semantics of a text is symbol grounding: if language is grounded, it is equal to recognizing a machine-readable meaning. For the restricted domain of spatial analysis, a computer-based language understanding system was demonstrated. Latent semantic analysis (LSA), a class of techniques where documents are represented as vectors in a term space. A prominent example is probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA). Latent Dirichlet allocation, which involves attributing document terms to topics. n-grams and hidden Markov models, which work by representing the term stream as a Markov chain, in which each term is derived from preceding terms. == Stochastic semantic analysis ==
Hierarchical Risk Parity
Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) is an advanced investment portfolio optimization framework developed in 2016 by Marcos López de Prado at Guggenheim Partners and Cornell University. HRP is a probabilistic graph-based alternative to the prevailing mean-variance optimization (MVO) framework developed by Harry Markowitz in 1952, and for which he received the Nobel Prize in economic sciences. HRP algorithms apply discrete mathematics and machine learning techniques to create diversified and robust investment portfolios that outperform MVO methods out-of-sample. HRP aims to address the limitations of traditional portfolio construction methods, particularly when dealing with highly correlated assets. Following its publication, HRP has been implemented in numerous open-source libraries, and received multiple extensions. == Key features == HRP portfolios have been proposed as a robust alternative to traditional quadratic optimization methods, including the Critical Line Algorithm (CLA) of Markowitz. HRP addresses three central issues commonly associated with quadratic optimizers: numerical instability, excessive concentration in a small number of assets, and poor out-of-sample performance. HRP leverages techniques from graph theory and machine learning to construct diversified portfolios using only the information embedded in the covariance matrix. Unlike quadratic programming methods, HRP does not require the covariance matrix to be invertible. Consequently, HRP remains applicable even in cases where the covariance matrix is ill-conditioned or singular—conditions under which standard optimizers fail. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that HRP achieves lower out-of-sample variance than CLA, despite the fact that minimizing variance is the explicit optimization objective of CLA. Furthermore, HRP portfolios exhibit lower realized risk compared to those generated by traditional risk parity methodologies. Empirical backtests have demonstrated that HRP would have historically outperformed conventional portfolio construction techniques. Algorithms within the HRP framework are characterized by the following features: Machine Learning Approach: HRP employs hierarchical clustering, a machine learning technique, to group similar assets based on their correlations. This allows the algorithm to identify the underlying hierarchical structure of the portfolio, and avoid that errors spread through the entire network. Risk-Based Allocation: The algorithm allocates capital based on risk, ensuring that assets only compete with similar assets for representation in the portfolio. This approach leads to better diversification across different risk sources, while avoiding the instability associated with noisy returns estimates. Covariance Matrix Handling: Unlike traditional methods like Mean-Variance Optimization, HRP does not require inverting the covariance matrix. This makes it more stable and applicable to portfolios with a large number of assets, particularly when the covariance matrix's condition number is high. == The problem: Markowitz's Curse == Portfolio construction is perhaps the most recurrent financial problem. On a daily basis, investment managers must build portfolios that incorporate their views and forecasts on risks and returns. Despite the theoretical elegance of Markowitz's mean-variance framework, its practical implementation is hindered by several limitations that undermine the reliability of solutions derived from the Critical Line Algorithm (CLA). A principal concern is the high sensitivity of optimal portfolios to small perturbations in expected returns: even minor forecasting errors can result in significantly different allocations (Michaud, 1998). Given the inherent difficulty of producing accurate return forecasts, numerous researchers have advocated for approaches that forgo expected returns entirely and instead rely solely on the covariance structure of asset returns. This has given rise to risk-based allocation methods, among which risk parity is a widely cited example (Jurczenko, 2015). While eliminating return forecasts mitigates some instability, it does not eliminate it. Quadratic programming techniques employed in portfolio optimization require the inversion of a positive-definite covariance matrix, meaning all eigenvalues must be strictly positive. When the matrix is numerically ill-conditioned—that is, when the ratio of its largest to smallest eigenvalue (its condition number) is large—matrix inversion becomes unreliable and prone to significant numerical errors (Bailey and López de Prado, 2012). The condition number of a covariance, correlation, or any symmetric (and thus diagonalizable) matrix is defined as the absolute value of the ratio between its largest and smallest eigenvalues in modulus. The figure on the right presents the sorted eigenvalues of several correlation matrices; the condition number is represented by the ratio of the first to last eigenvalues in each sequence. A diagonal correlation matrix, which is equal to its own inverse, exhibits the minimum possible condition number. As the number of correlated (or multicollinear) assets in a portfolio increases, the condition number rises. At high levels, this leads to severe numerical instability, whereby slight modifications in any matrix entry may result in drastically different inverses. This phenomenon, often referred to as Markowitz’s curse, encapsulates the paradox wherein increased correlation among assets heightens the theoretical need for diversification, yet simultaneously increases the likelihood of unstable optimization outcomes. Consequently, the potential benefits of diversification are frequently overshadowed by estimation errors. These problems are exacerbated as the dimensionality of the covariance matrix increases. The estimation of each covariance term consumes degrees of freedom, and in general, a minimum of 1 2 N ( N + 1 ) {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{2}}N(N+1)} independent and identically distributed (IID) observations is required to estimate a non-singular covariance matrix of dimension N {\displaystyle N} . For example, constructing an invertible covariance matrix of dimension 50 necessitates at least five years of daily IID observations. However, empirical evidence suggests that the correlation structure of financial assets is highly unstable over such extended periods. These difficulties are highlighted by the observation that even naïve allocation strategies—such as equally weighted portfolios—have frequently outperformed both mean-variance and risk-based optimizations in out-of-sample tests (De Miguel et al., 2009). == The solution: Hierarchical Risk Parity == The HRP algorithm addresses Markowitz's curse in three steps: Hierarchical Clustering: Assets are grouped into clusters based on their correlations, forming a hierarchical tree structure. Quasi-Diagonalization: The correlation matrix is reordered based on the clustering results, revealing a block diagonal structure. Recursive Bisection: Weights are assigned to assets through a top-down approach, splitting the portfolio into smaller sub-portfolios and allocating capital based on inverse variance. === Step 1: Hierarchical clustering === Given a T × N {\displaystyle T\times N} matrix of asset returns X {\displaystyle X} , where each column represents a time series of returns for one of N {\displaystyle N} assets over T {\displaystyle T} time periods, a hierarchical clustering process can be used to construct a tree-based representation of asset relationships. First, we compute the N × N {\displaystyle N\times N} correlation matrix ρ = ρ i , j i , j = 1 . . . N {\displaystyle \rho ={\rho _{i,j}}\;{i,j=1\;...\;N}} , where ρ i , j = c o r r ( X i , X j ) {\displaystyle \rho _{i,j}=\mathrm {corr} (X_{i},X_{j})} . From this, a pairwise distance matrix D = d i , j {\displaystyle D={d_{i,j}}} is defined using the transformation: d i , j = 1 2 ( 1 − ρ i , j ) {\displaystyle d_{i,j}={\sqrt {{\frac {1}{2}}(1-\rho _{i,j})}}} This distance function defines a proper metric space, satisfying non-negativity, identity of indiscernibles, symmetry, and the triangle inequality. Next, a secondary distance matrix D ~ = d ~ i , j {\displaystyle {\tilde {D}}={{\tilde {d}}_{i,j}}} is computed, where each entry measures the Euclidean distance between the distance profiles of two assets: d ~ i , j = ∑ n = 1 N ( d n , i − d n , j ) 2 {\displaystyle {\tilde {d}}_{i,j}={\sqrt {\sum _{n=1}^{N}(d_{n,i}-d_{n,j})^{2}}}} While d i , j {\displaystyle d_{i,j}} reflects correlation-based proximity between two assets, d ~ i , j {\displaystyle {\tilde {d}}_{i,j}} quantifies dissimilarity across the entire system, as it depends on all pairwise distances. Hierarchical clustering proceeds by identifying the pair ( i , j ) {\displaystyle (i,j)} with the smallest value of d ~ i , j {\displaystyle {\tilde {d}}_{i,j}} (for i ≠ j {\displaystyle i\neq j} ), and forming a new cluster u [ 1 ] = ( i , j ) {\displaystyle u[1]=(i,j)} .
Toy problem
In scientific disciplines, a toy problem or a puzzlelike problem is a problem that is not of immediate scientific interest, yet is used as an expository device to illustrate a trait that may be shared by other, more complicated, instances of the problem, or as a way to explain a particular, more general, problem solving technique. A toy problem is useful to test and demonstrate methodologies. Researchers can use toy problems to compare the performance of different algorithms. They are also good for game designing. For instance, while engineering a large system, the large problem is often broken down into many smaller toy problems which have been well understood in detail. Often these problems distill a few important aspects of complicated problems so that they can be studied in isolation. Toy problems are thus often very useful in providing intuition about specific phenomena in more complicated problems. As an example, in the field of artificial intelligence, classical puzzles, games and problems are often used as toy problems. These include sliding-block puzzles, N-Queens problem, missionaries and cannibals problem, tic-tac-toe, chess, Tower of Hanoi and others.
Dataset shift
Dataset shift is a phenomenon in machine learning and statistics in which the joint distribution of input variables and target labels is different in the training phase and the deployment or test phase (i.e., P t r a i n ( X , Y ) ≠ P t e s t ( X , Y ) {\displaystyle P_{train}(X,Y)\neq P_{test}(X,Y)} ). This happens when the statistical properties of data used to train a model are no longer representative of the data encountered in real-world use, often resulting in degraded predictive performance and diminished generalization ability. Dataset shift is a generic term for a number of particular types of distributional change. Covariate shift is when the distribution of the input features changes, but the conditional relationship between inputs and outputs remains constant . Prior probability shift (or label shift) happens when the distribution of target labels changes, but the conditional distribution of inputs given labels stays the same. Concept shift (also known as concept drift) is the change of the conditional relationship between inputs and outputs that renders previously learned patterns invalid over time. A key challenge for deploying machine learning systems is dataset shift, in particular in dynamic environments where the data distributions change over time. Detecting and mitigating such shifts is an active area of research, e.g., drift detection, domain adaptation, continual learning.