Thompson sampling

Thompson sampling, named after William R. Thompson, is a heuristic for choosing actions that address the exploration–exploitation dilemma in the multi-armed bandit problem. It consists of choosing the action that maximizes the expected reward with respect to a randomly drawn belief. == Description == Consider a set of contexts X {\displaystyle {\mathcal {X}}} , a set of actions A {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A}}} , and rewards in R {\displaystyle \mathbb {R} } . The aim of the player is to play actions under the various contexts, such as to maximize the cumulative rewards. Specifically, in each round, the player obtains a context x ∈ X {\displaystyle x\in {\mathcal {X}}} , plays an action a ∈ A {\displaystyle a\in {\mathcal {A}}} and receives a reward r ∈ R {\displaystyle r\in \mathbb {R} } following a distribution that depends on the context and the issued action. The elements of Thompson sampling are as follows: a likelihood function P ( r | θ , a , x ) {\displaystyle P(r|\theta ,a,x)} ; a set Θ {\displaystyle \Theta } of parameters θ {\displaystyle \theta } of the distribution of r {\displaystyle r} ; a prior distribution P ( θ ) {\displaystyle P(\theta )} on these parameters; past observations triplets D = { ( x ; a ; r ) } {\displaystyle {\mathcal {D}}=\{(x;a;r)\}} ; a posterior distribution P ( θ | D ) ∝ P ( D | θ ) P ( θ ) {\displaystyle P(\theta |{\mathcal {D}})\propto P({\mathcal {D}}|\theta )P(\theta )} , where P ( D | θ ) {\displaystyle P({\mathcal {D}}|\theta )} is the likelihood function. Thompson sampling consists of playing the action a ∗ ∈ A {\displaystyle a^{\ast }\in {\mathcal {A}}} according to the probability that it maximizes the expected reward; action a ∗ {\displaystyle a^{\ast }} is chosen with probability ∫ I [ E ( r | a ∗ , x , θ ) = max a ′ E ( r | a ′ , x , θ ) ] P ( θ | D ) d θ , {\displaystyle \int \mathbb {I} \left[\mathbb {E} (r|a^{\ast },x,\theta )=\max _{a'}\mathbb {E} (r|a',x,\theta )\right]P(\theta |{\mathcal {D}})d\theta ,} where I {\displaystyle \mathbb {I} } is the indicator function. In practice, the rule is implemented by sampling. In each round, parameters θ ∗ {\displaystyle \theta ^{\ast }} are sampled from the posterior P ( θ | D ) {\displaystyle P(\theta |{\mathcal {D}})} , and an action a ∗ {\displaystyle a^{\ast }} chosen that maximizes E [ r | θ ∗ , a ∗ , x ] {\displaystyle \mathbb {E} [r|\theta ^{\ast },a^{\ast },x]} , i.e. the expected reward given the sampled parameters, the action, and the current context. Conceptually, this means that the player instantiates their beliefs randomly in each round according to the posterior distribution, and then acts optimally according to them. In most practical applications, it is computationally onerous to maintain and sample from a posterior distribution over models. As such, Thompson sampling is often used in conjunction with approximate sampling techniques. == History == Thompson sampling was originally described by Thompson in 1933. It was subsequently rediscovered numerous times independently in the context of multi-armed bandit problems. A first proof of convergence for the bandit case has been shown in 1997. The first application to Markov decision processes was in 2000. A related approach (see Bayesian control rule) was published in 2010. In 2010 it was also shown that Thompson sampling is instantaneously self-correcting. Asymptotic convergence results for contextual bandits were published in 2011. Thompson Sampling has been widely used in many online learning problems including A/B testing in website design and online advertising, and accelerated learning in decentralized decision making. A Double Thompson Sampling (D-TS) algorithm has been proposed for dueling bandits, a variant of traditional MAB, where feedback comes in the form of pairwise comparison. == Relationship to other approaches == === Probability matching === Probability matching is a decision strategy in which predictions of class membership are proportional to the class base rates. Thus, if in the training set positive examples are observed 60% of the time, and negative examples are observed 40% of the time, the observer using a probability-matching strategy will predict (for unlabeled examples) a class label of "positive" on 60% of instances, and a class label of "negative" on 40% of instances. === Bayesian control rule === A generalization of Thompson sampling to arbitrary dynamical environments and causal structures, known as Bayesian control rule, has been shown to be the optimal solution to the adaptive coding problem with actions and observations. In this formulation, an agent is conceptualized as a mixture over a set of behaviours. As the agent interacts with its environment, it learns the causal properties and adopts the behaviour that minimizes the relative entropy to the behaviour with the best prediction of the environment's behaviour. If these behaviours have been chosen according to the maximum expected utility principle, then the asymptotic behaviour of the Bayesian control rule matches the asymptotic behaviour of the perfectly rational agent. The setup is as follows. Let a 1 , a 2 , … , a T {\displaystyle a_{1},a_{2},\ldots ,a_{T}} be the actions issued by an agent up to time T {\displaystyle T} , and let o 1 , o 2 , … , o T {\displaystyle o_{1},o_{2},\ldots ,o_{T}} be the observations gathered by the agent up to time T {\displaystyle T} . Then, the agent issues the action a T + 1 {\displaystyle a_{T+1}} with probability: P ( a T + 1 | a ^ 1 : T , o 1 : T ) , {\displaystyle P(a_{T+1}|{\hat {a}}_{1:T},o_{1:T}),} where the "hat"-notation a ^ t {\displaystyle {\hat {a}}_{t}} denotes the fact that a t {\displaystyle a_{t}} is a causal intervention (see Causality), and not an ordinary observation. If the agent holds beliefs θ ∈ Θ {\displaystyle \theta \in \Theta } over its behaviors, then the Bayesian control rule becomes P ( a T + 1 | a ^ 1 : T , o 1 : T ) = ∫ Θ P ( a T + 1 | θ , a ^ 1 : T , o 1 : T ) P ( θ | a ^ 1 : T , o 1 : T ) d θ {\displaystyle P(a_{T+1}|{\hat {a}}_{1:T},o_{1:T})=\int _{\Theta }P(a_{T+1}|\theta ,{\hat {a}}_{1:T},o_{1:T})P(\theta |{\hat {a}}_{1:T},o_{1:T})\,d\theta } , where P ( θ | a ^ 1 : T , o 1 : T ) {\displaystyle P(\theta |{\hat {a}}_{1:T},o_{1:T})} is the posterior distribution over the parameter θ {\displaystyle \theta } given actions a 1 : T {\displaystyle a_{1:T}} and observations o 1 : T {\displaystyle o_{1:T}} . In practice, the Bayesian control amounts to sampling, at each time step, a parameter θ ∗ {\displaystyle \theta ^{\ast }} from the posterior distribution P ( θ | a ^ 1 : T , o 1 : T ) {\displaystyle P(\theta |{\hat {a}}_{1:T},o_{1:T})} , where the posterior distribution is computed using Bayes' rule by only considering the (causal) likelihoods of the observations o 1 , o 2 , … , o T {\displaystyle o_{1},o_{2},\ldots ,o_{T}} and ignoring the (causal) likelihoods of the actions a 1 , a 2 , … , a T {\displaystyle a_{1},a_{2},\ldots ,a_{T}} , and then by sampling the action a T + 1 ∗ {\displaystyle a_{T+1}^{\ast }} from the action distribution P ( a T + 1 | θ ∗ , a ^ 1 : T , o 1 : T ) {\displaystyle P(a_{T+1}|\theta ^{\ast },{\hat {a}}_{1:T},o_{1:T})} . === Upper-confidence-bound (UCB) algorithms === Thompson sampling and upper-confidence bound algorithms share a fundamental property that underlies many of their theoretical guarantees. Roughly speaking, both algorithms allocate exploratory effort to actions that might be optimal and are in this sense "optimistic". Leveraging this property, one can translate regret bounds established for UCB algorithms to Bayesian regret bounds for Thompson sampling or unify regret analysis across both these algorithms and many classes of problems.

ChatGPT

ChatGPT is a generative artificial intelligence chatbot developed by OpenAI. Originally released in November 2022, the product uses large language models—specifically generative pre-trained transformers (GPTs)—to generate text, speech, and images in response to user prompts. ChatGPT accelerated the AI boom, an ongoing period marked by rapid investment and public attention toward the field of artificial intelligence (AI). OpenAI operates the service on a freemium model. Users can interact with ChatGPT through text, audio, and image prompts. ChatGPT was quickly adopted, reaching 100 million monthly active users two months after its release and 900 million weekly active users in February 2026. It has been lauded for its potential to transform numerous professional fields, and has instigated public debate about the nature of creativity and the future of knowledge work. The chatbot has also been criticized for its limitations and potential for unethical use. It can generate plausible-sounding but incorrect or nonsensical answers, known as hallucinations. Biases in its training data have been reflected in its responses. The chatbot can facilitate academic dishonesty, generate misinformation, and create malicious code. The ethics of its development, particularly the use of copyrighted content as training data, have also drawn controversy. == Features == ChatGPT is a chatbot and AI assistant built on large language model (LLM) technology. It is designed to generate human-like text and can carry out a wide variety of tasks. These include, among many others, writing and debugging computer programs, composing music, scripts, fairy tales, and essays, answering questions (sometimes at a level exceeding that of an average human test-taker), and generating business concepts. ChatGPT is frequently used for translation and summarization tasks, and can simulate interactive environments such as a Linux terminal, a multi-user chat room, or simple text-based games such as tic-tac-toe. Users interact with ChatGPT through conversations which consist of text, audio, and image inputs and outputs. The user's inputs to these conversations are referred to as prompts. An optional "Memory" feature allows users to tell ChatGPT to memorize specific information. Another option allows ChatGPT to recall old conversations. GPT-based moderation classifiers are used to reduce the risk of harmful outputs being presented to users. In March 2023, OpenAI added support for plugins for ChatGPT. This includes both plugins made by OpenAI, such as web browsing and code interpretation, and external plugins from developers such as Expedia, OpenTable, and Zapier. From October to December 2024, ChatGPT Search was deployed. It allows ChatGPT to search the web in an attempt to make more accurate and up-to-date responses. It increased OpenAI's direct competition with major search engines. OpenAI allows businesses to tailor how their content appears in the ChatGPT Search results and influence what sources are used. In December 2024, OpenAI launched a new feature allowing users to call ChatGPT with a telephone for up to 15 minutes per month for free. In September 2025, OpenAI added a feature called Pulse, which generates a daily analysis of a user's chats and connected apps such as Gmail and Google Calendar. In October 2025, OpenAI launched ChatGPT Atlas, a browser integrating the ChatGPT assistant directly into web navigation, to compete with existing browsers such as Google Chrome. It has an additional feature called "agentic mode" that allows it to take online actions for the user. === Paid tier === ChatGPT was initially free to the public and remains free in a limited capacity. In February 2023, OpenAI launched a premium service, ChatGPT Plus, that costs US$20 per month. What was offered on the paid plan versus the free tier changed as OpenAI has continued to update ChatGPT, and a Pro tier at $200/mo was introduced in December 2024. The Pro launch coincided with the release of the o1 model. In August 2025, ChatGPT Go was offered in India for ₹399 per month. The plan has higher limits than the free version. === Mobile apps === In May-July 2023, OpenAI began offering ChatGPT iOS and Android apps. ChatGPT can also power Android's assistant. An app for Windows launched on the Microsoft Store on October 15, 2024. === Languages === OpenAI met Icelandic President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson in 2022. In 2023, OpenAI worked with a team of 40 Icelandic volunteers to fine-tune ChatGPT's Icelandic conversation skills as a part of Iceland's attempts to preserve the Icelandic language. ChatGPT (based on GPT-4) was better able to translate Japanese to English when compared to Bing, Bard, and DeepL Translator in 2023. In December 2023, the Albanian government decided to use ChatGPT for the rapid translation of European Union documents and the analysis of required changes needed for Albania's accession to the EU. Several studies have shown that ChatGPT can outperform Google Translate in some mainstream translation tasks. However, as of 2024, no machine translation services match human expert performance. In August 2024, a representative of the Asia Pacific wing of OpenAI made a visit to Taiwan, during which a demonstration of ChatGPT's Chinese abilities was made. ChatGPT's Mandarin Chinese abilities were lauded, but the ability of the AI to produce content in Mandarin Chinese in a Taiwanese accent was found to be "less than ideal" due to differences between mainland Mandarin Chinese and Taiwanese Mandarin. === GPT Store === In November 2023, OpenAI released GPT Builder, a tool allowing users to customize ChatGPT's behavior for a specific use case. The customized systems are referred to as GPTs. In January 2024, OpenAI launched the GPT Store, a marketplace for GPTs. At launch, OpenAI included more than 3 million GPTs created by GPT Builder users in the GPT Store. === ChatGPT Apps === In September 2025, OpenAI added support for Model Context Protocol (MCP) to ChatGPT apps. When enabled in developer mode, this allows for improved third-party access to ChatGPT tools and servers. === Deep Research === In February 2025, OpenAI released Deep Research, a feature that generates reports based on extensive web searches. It was initially based on the reasoning model o3 and took 5 to 30 minutes per report. === Images === In October 2023, OpenAI's image generation model DALL-E 3 was integrated into ChatGPT. The integration used ChatGPT to write prompts for DALL-E guided by conversations with users. In March 2025, OpenAI updated ChatGPT to generate images using GPT Image instead of DALL-E. One of the most significant improvements was in the generation of text within images, which is especially useful for branded content. However, this ability is noticeably worse in non-Latin alphabets. The model can also generate new images based on existing ones provided in the prompt. These images are generated with C2PA metadata, which can be used to verify that they are AI-generated. OpenAI has emplaced additional safeguards to prevent what the company deems to be harmful image generation. === Agents === In 2025, OpenAI added several features to make ChatGPT more agentic (capable of autonomously performing longer tasks). In January, Operator was released. It was capable of autonomously performing tasks through web browser interactions, including filling forms, placing online orders, scheduling appointments, and other browser-based tasks. It was controlling a software environment inside a virtual machine with limited internet connectivity and with safety restrictions. It struggled with complex user interfaces. In May 2025, OpenAI introduced an agent for coding named Codex. It is capable of writing software, answering codebase questions, running tests, and proposing pull requests. It is based on a fine-tuned version of OpenAI o3. It has two versions, one running in a virtual machine in the cloud, and one where the agent runs in the cloud, but performs actions on a local machine connected via API. In July 2025, OpenAI released ChatGPT agent, an AI agent that can perform multi-step tasks. Like Operator, it controls a virtual computer. It also inherits from Deep Research's ability to gather and summarize significant volumes of information. The user can interrupt tasks or provide additional instructions as needed. In September 2025, OpenAI partnered with Stripe, Inc. to release Agentic Commerce Protocol, enabling purchases through ChatGPT. At launch, the feature was limited to purchases on Etsy from US users with a payment method linked to their OpenAI account. OpenAI takes an undisclosed cut from the merchant's payment. === ChatGPT Health === On January 7, 2026, OpenAI introduced a feature called "ChatGPT Health", whereby ChatGPT can discuss the user's health in a way that is separate from other chats. The feature is not available for users in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, or the European Economic Area, and is available on a waitli

Analogical modeling

Analogical modeling (AM) is a formal theory of exemplar based analogical reasoning, proposed by Royal Skousen, professor of Linguistics and English language at Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah. It is applicable to language modeling and other categorization tasks. Analogical modeling is related to connectionism and nearest neighbor approaches, in that it is data-based rather than abstraction-based; but it is distinguished by its ability to cope with imperfect datasets (such as caused by simulated short term memory limits) and to base predictions on all relevant segments of the dataset, whether near or far. In language modeling, AM has successfully predicted empirically valid forms for which no theoretical explanation was known (see the discussion of Finnish morphology in Skousen et al. 2002). == Implementation == === Overview === An exemplar-based model consists of a general-purpose modeling engine and a problem-specific dataset. Within the dataset, each exemplar (a case to be reasoned from, or an informative past experience) appears as a feature vector: a row of values for the set of parameters that define the problem. For example, in a spelling-to-sound task, the feature vector might consist of the letters of a word. Each exemplar in the dataset is stored with an outcome, such as a phoneme or phone to be generated. When the model is presented with a novel situation (in the form of an outcome-less feature vector), the engine algorithmically sorts the dataset to find exemplars that helpfully resemble it, and selects one, whose outcome is the model's prediction. The particulars of the algorithm distinguish one exemplar-based modeling system from another. In AM, we think of the feature values as characterizing a context, and the outcome as a behavior that occurs within that context. Accordingly, the novel situation is known as the given context. Given the known features of the context, the AM engine systematically generates all contexts that include it (all of its supracontexts), and extracts from the dataset the exemplars that belong to each. The engine then discards those supracontexts whose outcomes are inconsistent (this measure of consistency will be discussed further below), leaving an analogical set of supracontexts, and probabilistically selects an exemplar from the analogical set with a bias toward those in large supracontexts. This multilevel search exponentially magnifies the likelihood of a behavior's being predicted as it occurs reliably in settings that specifically resemble the given context. === Analogical modeling in detail === AM performs the same process for each case it is asked to evaluate. The given context, consisting of n variables, is used as a template to generate 2 n {\displaystyle 2^{n}} supracontexts. Each supracontext is a set of exemplars in which one or more variables have the same values that they do in the given context, and the other variables are ignored. In effect, each is a view of the data, created by filtering for some criteria of similarity to the given context, and the total set of supracontexts exhausts all such views. Alternatively, each supracontext is a theory of the task or a proposed rule whose predictive power needs to be evaluated. It is important to note that the supracontexts are not equal peers one with another; they are arranged by their distance from the given context, forming a hierarchy. If a supracontext specifies all of the variables that another one does and more, it is a subcontext of that other one, and it lies closer to the given context. (The hierarchy is not strictly branching; each supracontext can itself be a subcontext of several others, and can have several subcontexts.) This hierarchy becomes significant in the next step of the algorithm. The engine now chooses the analogical set from among the supracontexts. A supracontext may contain exemplars that only exhibit one behavior; it is deterministically homogeneous and is included. It is a view of the data that displays regularity, or a relevant theory that has never yet been disproven. A supracontext may exhibit several behaviors, but contain no exemplars that occur in any more specific supracontext (that is, in any of its subcontexts); in this case it is non-deterministically homogeneous and is included. Here there is no great evidence that a systematic behavior occurs, but also no counterargument. Finally, a supracontext may be heterogeneous, meaning that it exhibits behaviors that are found in a subcontext (closer to the given context), and also behaviors that are not. Where the ambiguous behavior of the nondeterministically homogeneous supracontext was accepted, this is rejected because the intervening subcontext demonstrates that there is a better theory to be found. The heterogeneous supracontext is therefore excluded. This guarantees that we see an increase in meaningfully consistent behavior in the analogical set as we approach the given context. With the analogical set chosen, each appearance of an exemplar (for a given exemplar may appear in several of the analogical supracontexts) is given a pointer to every other appearance of an exemplar within its supracontexts. One of these pointers is then selected at random and followed, and the exemplar to which it points provides the outcome. This gives each supracontext an importance proportional to the square of its size, and makes each exemplar likely to be selected in direct proportion to the sum of the sizes of all analogically consistent supracontexts in which it appears. Then, of course, the probability of predicting a particular outcome is proportional to the summed probabilities of all the exemplars that support it. (Skousen 2002, in Skousen et al. 2002, pp. 11–25, and Skousen 2003, both passim) === Formulas === Given a context with n {\displaystyle n} elements: total number of pairings: n 2 {\displaystyle n^{2}} number of agreements for outcome i: n i 2 {\displaystyle n_{i}^{2}} number of disagreements for outcome i: n i ( n − n i ) {\displaystyle n_{i}(n-n_{i})} total number of agreements: ∑ n i 2 {\displaystyle \sum {n_{i}^{2}}} total number of disagreements: ∑ n i ( n − n i ) = n 2 − ∑ n i 2 {\displaystyle \sum {n_{i}(n-n_{i})}=n^{2}-\sum {n_{i}^{2}}} === Example === This terminology is best understood through an example. In the example used in the second chapter of Skousen (1989), each context consists of three variables with potential values 0-3 Variable 1: 0,1,2,3 Variable 2: 0,1,2,3 Variable 3: 0,1,2,3 The two outcomes for the dataset are e and r, and the exemplars are: 3 1 0 e 0 3 2 r 2 1 0 r 2 1 2 r 3 1 1 r We define a network of pointers like so: The solid lines represent pointers between exemplars with matching outcomes; the dotted lines represent pointers between exemplars with non-matching outcomes. The statistics for this example are as follows: n = 5 {\displaystyle n=5} n r = 4 {\displaystyle n_{r}=4} n e = 1 {\displaystyle n_{e}=1} total number of pairings: n 2 = 25 {\displaystyle n^{2}=25} number of agreements for outcome r: n r 2 = 16 {\displaystyle n_{r}^{2}=16} number of agreements for outcome e: n e 2 = 1 {\displaystyle n_{e}^{2}=1} number of disagreements for outcome r: n r ( n − n r ) = 4 {\displaystyle n_{r}(n-n_{r})=4} number of disagreements for outcome e: n e ( n − n e ) = 4 {\displaystyle n_{e}(n-n_{e})=4} total number of agreements: n r 2 + n e 2 = 17 {\displaystyle n_{r}^{2}+n_{e}^{2}=17} total number of disagreements: n r ( n − n r ) + n e ( n − n e ) = n 2 − ( n r 2 + n e 2 ) = 8 {\displaystyle n_{r}(n-n_{r})+n_{e}(n-n_{e})=n^{2}-(n_{r}^{2}+n_{e}^{2})=8} uncertainty or fraction of disagreement: 8 / 25 = .32 {\displaystyle 8/25=.32} Behavior can only be predicted for a given context; in this example, let us predict the outcome for the context "3 1 2". To do this, we first find all of the contexts containing the given context; these contexts are called supracontexts. We find the supracontexts by systematically eliminating the variables in the given context; with m variables, there will generally be 2 m {\displaystyle 2^{m}} supracontexts. The following table lists each of the sub- and supracontexts; x means "not x", and - means "anything". These contexts are shown in the venn diagram below: The next step is to determine which exemplars belong to which contexts in order to determine which of the contexts are homogeneous. The table below shows each of the subcontexts, their behavior in terms of the given exemplars, and the number of disagreements within the behavior: Analyzing the subcontexts in the table above, we see that there is only 1 subcontext with any disagreements: "3 1 2", which in the dataset consists of "3 1 0 e" and "3 1 1 r". There are 2 disagreements in this subcontext; 1 pointing from each of the exemplars to the other (see the pointer network pictured above). Therefore, only supracontexts containing this subcontext will contain any disagreements. We use a simple rule to identify the homogeneous supraco

Mean squared prediction error

In statistics the mean squared prediction error (MSPE), also known as mean squared error of the predictions, of a smoothing, curve fitting, or regression procedure is the expected value of the squared prediction errors (PE), the square difference between the fitted values implied by the predictive function g ^ {\displaystyle {\widehat {g}}} and the values of the (unobservable) true value g. It is an inverse measure of the explanatory power of g ^ , {\displaystyle {\widehat {g}},} and can be used in the process of cross-validation of an estimated model. Knowledge of g would be required in order to calculate the MSPE exactly; in practice, MSPE is estimated. == Formulation == If the smoothing or fitting procedure has projection matrix (i.e., hat matrix) L, which maps the observed values vector y {\displaystyle y} to predicted values vector y ^ = L y , {\displaystyle {\hat {y}}=Ly,} then PE and MSPE are formulated as: P E i = g ( x i ) − g ^ ( x i ) , {\displaystyle \operatorname {PE_{i}} =g(x_{i})-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i}),} MSPE = E ⁡ [ PE i 2 ] = ∑ i = 1 n PE i 2 ⁡ / n . {\displaystyle \operatorname {MSPE} =\operatorname {E} \left[\operatorname {PE} _{i}^{2}\right]=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\operatorname {PE} _{i}^{2}/n.} The MSPE can be decomposed into two terms: the squared bias (mean error) of the fitted values and the variance of the fitted values: MSPE = ME 2 + VAR , {\displaystyle \operatorname {MSPE} =\operatorname {ME} ^{2}+\operatorname {VAR} ,} ME = E ⁡ [ g ^ ( x i ) − g ( x i ) ] {\displaystyle \operatorname {ME} =\operatorname {E} \left[{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})-g(x_{i})\right]} VAR = E ⁡ [ ( g ^ ( x i ) − E ⁡ [ g ( x i ) ] ) 2 ] . {\displaystyle \operatorname {VAR} =\operatorname {E} \left[\left({\widehat {g}}(x_{i})-\operatorname {E} \left[{g}(x_{i})\right]\right)^{2}\right].} The quantity SSPE=nMSPE is called sum squared prediction error. The root mean squared prediction error is the square root of MSPE: RMSPE=√MSPE. == Computation of MSPE over out-of-sample data == The mean squared prediction error can be computed exactly in two contexts. First, with a data sample of length n, the data analyst may run the regression over only q of the data points (with q < n), holding back the other n – q data points with the specific purpose of using them to compute the estimated model’s MSPE out of sample (i.e., not using data that were used in the model estimation process). Since the regression process is tailored to the q in-sample points, normally the in-sample MSPE will be smaller than the out-of-sample one computed over the n – q held-back points. If the increase in the MSPE out of sample compared to in sample is relatively slight, that results in the model being viewed favorably. And if two models are to be compared, the one with the lower MSPE over the n – q out-of-sample data points is viewed more favorably, regardless of the models’ relative in-sample performances. The out-of-sample MSPE in this context is exact for the out-of-sample data points that it was computed over, but is merely an estimate of the model’s MSPE for the mostly unobserved population from which the data were drawn. Second, as time goes on more data may become available to the data analyst, and then the MSPE can be computed over these new data. == Estimation of MSPE over the population == When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows. For the model y i = g ( x i ) + σ ε i {\displaystyle y_{i}=g(x_{i})+\sigma \varepsilon _{i}} where ε i ∼ N ( 0 , 1 ) {\displaystyle \varepsilon _{i}\sim {\mathcal {N}}(0,1)} , one may write n ⋅ MSPE ⁡ ( L ) = g T ( I − L ) T ( I − L ) g + σ 2 tr ⁡ [ L T L ] . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {MSPE} (L)=g^{\text{T}}(I-L)^{\text{T}}(I-L)g+\sigma ^{2}\operatorname {tr} \left[L^{\text{T}}L\right].} Using in-sample data values, the first term on the right side is equivalent to ∑ i = 1 n ( E ⁡ [ g ( x i ) − g ^ ( x i ) ] ) 2 = E ⁡ [ ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 ] − σ 2 tr ⁡ [ ( I − L ) T ( I − L ) ] . {\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(\operatorname {E} \left[g(x_{i})-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right]\right)^{2}=\operatorname {E} \left[\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}\right]-\sigma ^{2}\operatorname {tr} \left[\left(I-L\right)^{T}\left(I-L\right)\right].} Thus, n ⋅ MSPE ⁡ ( L ) = E ⁡ [ ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 ] − σ 2 ( n − tr ⁡ [ L ] ) . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {MSPE} (L)=\operatorname {E} \left[\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}\right]-\sigma ^{2}\left(n-\operatorname {tr} \left[L\right]\right).} If σ 2 {\displaystyle \sigma ^{2}} is known or well-estimated by σ ^ 2 {\displaystyle {\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}} , it becomes possible to estimate MSPE by n ⋅ M S P E ^ ⁡ ( L ) = ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 − σ ^ 2 ( n − tr ⁡ [ L ] ) . {\displaystyle n\cdot \operatorname {\widehat {MSPE}} (L)=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}-{\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}\left(n-\operatorname {tr} \left[L\right]\right).} Colin Mallows advocated this method in the construction of his model selection statistic Cp, which is a normalized version of the estimated MSPE: C p = ∑ i = 1 n ( y i − g ^ ( x i ) ) 2 σ ^ 2 − n + 2 p . {\displaystyle C_{p}={\frac {\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(y_{i}-{\widehat {g}}(x_{i})\right)^{2}}{{\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}}}-n+2p.} where p the number of estimated parameters p and σ ^ 2 {\displaystyle {\widehat {\sigma }}^{2}} is computed from the version of the model that includes all possible regressors. That concludes this proof.

Prescription monitoring program

In the United States, prescription monitoring programs (PMPs) or prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) are state-run programs which collect and distribute data about the prescription and dispensation of federally controlled substances and, depending on state requirements, other potentially abusable prescription drugs. PMPs are meant to help prevent adverse drug-related events such as opioid overdoses, drug diversion, and substance abuse by decreasing the amount and/or frequency of opioid prescribing, and by identifying those patients who are obtaining prescriptions from multiple providers (i.e., "doctor shopping") or those physicians overprescribing opioids. Most US health care workers support the idea of PMPs, which intend to assist physicians, physician assistants, nurse practitioners, dentists and other prescribers, the pharmacists, chemists and support staff of dispensing establishments. The database, whose use is required by State law, typically requires prescribers and pharmacies dispensing controlled substances to register with their respective state PMPs and (for pharmacies and providers who dispense from their offices) to report the dispensation of such prescriptions to an electronic online database. The majority of PMPs are authorized to notify law enforcement agencies or licensing boards or physicians when a prescriber, or patients receiving prescriptions, exceed thresholds established by the state or prescription recipient exceeds thresholds established by the State. All states have implemented PDMPs, although evidence for the effectiveness of these programs is mixed. While prescription of opioids has decreased with PMP use, overdose deaths in many states have actually increased, with those states sharing data with neighboring jurisdictions or requiring reporting of more drugs experiencing highest increases in deaths. This may be because those declined opioid prescriptions turn to street drugs, whose potency and contaminants carry greater overdose risk. == History == Prescription drug monitoring programs, or PDMPs, are an example of one initiative proposed to alleviate effects of the opioid crisis. The programs are designed to restrict prescription drug abuse by limiting a patient's ability to obtain similar prescriptions from multiple providers (i.e. “doctor shopping”) and reducing diversion of controlled substances. This is meant to reduce risk of fatal overdose caused by high doses of opioids or interactions between opioids and benzodiazepenes, and to enable better decision making on the part of healthcare providers who may be unaware of a patient's prescription drug use, history or other prescriptions. PDMPs have been implemented in state legislations since 1939 in California, a time before electronic medical records, though implementation rose alongside increased awareness of overprescribing of opioids and overdose. A later New York state program was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in Whalen v. Roe. But, by 2019, 49 states, the District of Columbia, and Guam had enacted PDMP legislation. In 2021 Missouri, the last State to not use a PMP, adopted legislation to create one. PMPs are constantly being updated to increase speed of data collection, sharing of data across States, and ease of interpretation. This is being done by integrating PDMP reports with other health information technologies such as health information exchanges (HIE), electronic health record (EHR) systems, and/ or pharmacy dispensing software systems. One program that has been implemented in nine states is called the PDMP Electronic Health Records Integration and Interoperability Expansion, also known as PEHRIIE. Another software, marketed by Bamboo Health and integrated with PMPs in 43 states, uses an algorithm to track factors thought to increase risk of diversion, abuse or overdose, and assigns patients a three digit score based on presumed indicators of risk. While some studies have suggested that PDMP-HIT integration and sharing of interstate data brings benefits such as reduced opioid-related inpatient morbidity, others have found no or negative impact on mortality compared to states without PMP data sharing. Patient and media reports suggest need for testing and evaluation of algorithmic software used to score risk, with some patients reporting denial of prescriptions without c explanation or clarity of data. == Goals == Most health care workers support PMPs which intend to assist physicians, physician assistants, nurse practitioners, dentists and other prescribers, the pharmacists, chemists and support staff of dispensing establishments, as well as law-enforcement agencies. The collaboration supports the legitimate medical use of controlled substances while limiting their abuse and diversion. Pharmacies dispensing controlled substances and prescribers typically must register with their respective state PMPs and (for pharmacies and providers who dispense controlled substances from their offices) report the dispensation to an electronic online database. Some pharmacy software can submit these reports automatically to multiple states. == Usage == === List of programs by state === === Software systems === NarxCare is a prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP) run by Bamboo Health. Bamboo Health was formerly known as Appriss. It is widely used across the United States by pharmacies including Rite Aid as well as those at Walmart and Sam’s Club. The NarxCare software allows doctors to view data about a patient, combining data from the prescription registries of various U.S. states to make the registries interoperable nationally. It also uses machine learning to generate an "Overdose Risk Score" that potentially includes EMS and criminal justice data; these scores have been criticized by researchers and patient advocates for the lack of transparency in the process as well as the potential for disparate treatment of women and minority groups. Advertised as an "analytics tool and care management platform", the NarxCare software allows doctors to view data about a patient including how many pharmacies they have visited and the combinations of medication they are prescribed. It combines data from the prescription registries of various U.S. states, making the registries interoperable nationally. It additionally uses machine learning to generate various three-digit "risk scores" and an overall "Overdose Risk Score", collectively referred to as Narx Scores, in a process that potentially includes EMS and criminal justice data as well as court records. == Controversy == Many doctors and researchers support the idea of PDMPs as a tool in combatting the opioid epidemic. Opioid prescribing, opioid diversion and supply, opioid misuse, and opioid-related morbidity and mortality are common elements in data entered into PDMPs. Prescription Monitoring Programs are purported to offer economic benefits for the states who implement them by decreasing overall health care costs, lost productivity, and investigation times. However, there are many studies that conclude the impact of PDMPs is unclear. While use of PMPs has been accompanied by decrease in opioid prescribing, few analyses consider corresponding use of street opioids, extramedical use, or diversion, which might provide a more holistic method for evaluation of PMP intent and efficacy. Evidence for PDMP impact on fatal overdoses is decidedly mixed, with multiple studies finding increased overdose rates in some states, decreases in others, or no clear impact. Interestingly, an increase in heroin overdoses after PDMP implementation has been commonly reported, presumably as denial of prescription opioids sends patients in search of street drugs. Narx Scores have been criticized by researchers and patient advocates for the lack of transparency in the generation process as well as the potential for disparate treatment of women and minority groups. Writing in Duke Law Journal, Jennifer Oliva stated that "black-box algorithms" are used to generate the scores.

NER model

NER is one of several formulas for accessing live subtitles in television broadcasts and events that are produced using speech recognition. The three letters stand for number, edit error and recognition error. It has been promoted as an alternative to Word error rate (Word Error Rate) which is a more objective measure. The overall score is calculated as follows: Firstly, the number of edit and recognition errors is deducted from the total number of words in the live subtitles. This number is then divided by the total number of words in the live subtitles and finally multiplied by one hundred. N E R v a l u e = N − E − R N ∗ 100 {\displaystyle NERvalue={\frac {N-E-R}{N}}100} . The acronyms stand for the following: N (number) = total number of words in the live subtitles E (Edit error) = edit error R (Recognition error) = recognition error This measurement process has been used for public television broadcasts in European countries like Italy and Switzerland. One major drawback with NER is that it requires a human assessor to rate errors as either: 1 Minor edition or recognition errors 2 Normal edition or recognition errors 3 Serious errors which are then weighted in the assessment process. This is both subjective, time consuming and costly. Also, NER fails to account for words left out subtitles which is something that does not take account of the D/deaf audience who want verbatim subtitles. As a result, NER cannot accurately reflect the audience's experience of subtitles. Another problem is the inconsistency of human evaluation of subtitles, particularly with live subtitles, where there are differing opinions of the importance of subtitle errors. By way of contrast, Word error rate is an objective measure of subtitle errors, since it measures the textual discrepancy between the subtitles and the speech.

Radial basis function network

In the field of mathematical modeling, a radial basis function network is an artificial neural network that uses radial basis functions as activation functions. The output of the network is a linear combination of radial basis functions of the inputs and neuron parameters. Radial basis function networks have many uses, including function approximation, time series prediction, classification, and system control. They were first formulated in a 1988 paper by Broomhead and Lowe, both researchers at the Royal Signals and Radar Establishment. == Network architecture == Radial basis function (RBF) networks typically have three layers: an input layer, a hidden layer with a non-linear RBF activation function and a linear output layer. The input can be modeled as a vector of real numbers x ∈ R n {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} \in \mathbb {R} ^{n}} . The output of the network is then a scalar function of the input vector, φ : R n → R {\displaystyle \varphi :\mathbb {R} ^{n}\to \mathbb {R} } , and is given by φ ( x ) = ∑ i = 1 N a i ρ ( | | x − c i | | ) {\displaystyle \varphi (\mathbf {x} )=\sum _{i=1}^{N}a_{i}\rho (||\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}||)} where N {\displaystyle N} is the number of neurons in the hidden layer, c i {\displaystyle \mathbf {c} _{i}} is the center vector for neuron i {\displaystyle i} , and a i {\displaystyle a_{i}} is the weight of neuron i {\displaystyle i} in the linear output neuron. Functions that depend only on the distance from a center vector are radially symmetric about that vector, hence the name radial basis function. In the basic form, all inputs are connected to each hidden neuron. The norm is typically taken to be the Euclidean distance (although the Mahalanobis distance appears to perform better with pattern recognition) and the radial basis function is commonly taken to be Gaussian ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) = exp ⁡ [ − β i ‖ x − c i ‖ 2 ] {\displaystyle \rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}=\exp \left[-\beta _{i}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert ^{2}\right]} . The Gaussian basis functions are local to the center vector in the sense that lim | | x | | → ∞ ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) = 0 {\displaystyle \lim _{||x||\to \infty }\rho (\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert )=0} i.e. changing parameters of one neuron has only a small effect for input values that are far away from the center of that neuron. Given certain mild conditions on the shape of the activation function, RBF networks are universal approximators on a compact subset of R n {\displaystyle \mathbb {R} ^{n}} . This means that an RBF network with enough hidden neurons can approximate any continuous function on a closed, bounded set with arbitrary precision. The parameters a i {\displaystyle a_{i}} , c i {\displaystyle \mathbf {c} _{i}} , and β i {\displaystyle \beta _{i}} are determined in a manner that optimizes the fit between φ {\displaystyle \varphi } and the data. === Normalization === ==== Normalized architecture ==== In addition to the above unnormalized architecture, RBF networks can be normalized. In this case the mapping is φ ( x ) = d e f ∑ i = 1 N a i ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) ∑ i = 1 N ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) = ∑ i = 1 N a i u ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) {\displaystyle \varphi (\mathbf {x} )\ {\stackrel {\mathrm {def} }{=}}\ {\frac {\sum _{i=1}^{N}a_{i}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}}{\sum _{i=1}^{N}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}}}=\sum _{i=1}^{N}a_{i}u{\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}} where u ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) = d e f ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) ∑ j = 1 N ρ ( ‖ x − c j ‖ ) {\displaystyle u{\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}\ {\stackrel {\mathrm {def} }{=}}\ {\frac {\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}}{\sum _{j=1}^{N}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{j}\right\Vert {\big )}}}} is known as a normalized radial basis function. ==== Theoretical motivation for normalization ==== There is theoretical justification for this architecture in the case of stochastic data flow. Assume a stochastic kernel approximation for the joint probability density P ( x ∧ y ) = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) σ ( | y − e i | ) {\displaystyle P\left(\mathbf {x} \land y\right)={1 \over N}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\,\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}\,\sigma {\big (}\left\vert y-e_{i}\right\vert {\big )}} where the weights c i {\displaystyle \mathbf {c} _{i}} and e i {\displaystyle e_{i}} are exemplars from the data and we require the kernels to be normalized ∫ ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) d n x = 1 {\displaystyle \int \rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}\,d^{n}\mathbf {x} =1} and ∫ σ ( | y − e i | ) d y = 1 {\displaystyle \int \sigma {\big (}\left\vert y-e_{i}\right\vert {\big )}\,dy=1} . The probability densities in the input and output spaces are P ( x ) = ∫ P ( x ∧ y ) d y = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) {\displaystyle P\left(\mathbf {x} \right)=\int P\left(\mathbf {x} \land y\right)\,dy={1 \over N}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\,\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}} and The expectation of y given an input x {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} } is φ ( x ) = d e f E ( y ∣ x ) = ∫ y P ( y ∣ x ) d y {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)\ {\stackrel {\mathrm {def} }{=}}\ E\left(y\mid \mathbf {x} \right)=\int y\,P\left(y\mid \mathbf {x} \right)dy} where P ( y ∣ x ) {\displaystyle P\left(y\mid \mathbf {x} \right)} is the conditional probability of y given x {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} } . The conditional probability is related to the joint probability through Bayes' theorem P ( y ∣ x ) = P ( x ∧ y ) P ( x ) {\displaystyle P\left(y\mid \mathbf {x} \right)={\frac {P\left(\mathbf {x} \land y\right)}{P\left(\mathbf {x} \right)}}} which yields φ ( x ) = ∫ y P ( x ∧ y ) P ( x ) d y {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)=\int y\,{\frac {P\left(\mathbf {x} \land y\right)}{P\left(\mathbf {x} \right)}}\,dy} . This becomes φ ( x ) = ∑ i = 1 N e i ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) ∑ i = 1 N ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) = ∑ i = 1 N e i u ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)={\frac {\sum _{i=1}^{N}e_{i}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}}{\sum _{i=1}^{N}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}}}=\sum _{i=1}^{N}e_{i}u{\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}} when the integrations are performed. === Local linear models === It is sometimes convenient to expand the architecture to include local linear models. In that case the architectures become, to first order, φ ( x ) = ∑ i = 1 N ( a i + b i ⋅ ( x − c i ) ) ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)=\sum _{i=1}^{N}\left(a_{i}+\mathbf {b} _{i}\cdot \left(\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right)\right)\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}} and φ ( x ) = ∑ i = 1 N ( a i + b i ⋅ ( x − c i ) ) u ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)=\sum _{i=1}^{N}\left(a_{i}+\mathbf {b} _{i}\cdot \left(\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right)\right)u{\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}} in the unnormalized and normalized cases, respectively. Here b i {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} _{i}} are weights to be determined. Higher order linear terms are also possible. This result can be written φ ( x ) = ∑ i = 1 2 N ∑ j = 1 n e i j v i j ( x − c i ) {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)=\sum _{i=1}^{2N}\sum _{j=1}^{n}e_{ij}v_{ij}{\big (}\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}{\big )}} where e i j = { a i , if i ∈ [ 1 , N ] b i j , if i ∈ [ N + 1 , 2 N ] {\displaystyle e_{ij}={\begin{cases}a_{i},&{\mbox{if }}i\in [1,N]\\b_{ij},&{\mbox{if }}i\in [N+1,2N]\end{cases}}} and v i j ( x − c i ) = d e f { δ i j ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) , if i ∈ [ 1 , N ] ( x i j − c i j ) ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) , if i ∈ [ N + 1 , 2 N ] {\displaystyle v_{ij}{\big (}\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}{\big )}\ {\stackrel {\mathrm {def} }{=}}\ {\begin{cases}\delta _{ij}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )},&{\mbox{if }}i\in [1,N]\\\left(x_{ij}-c_{ij}\right)\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )},&{\mbox{if }}i\in [N+1,2N]\end{cases}}} in the unnormalized case and in the normalized case. Here δ i j {\displaystyle \delta _{ij}} is a Kronecker delta function defined as δ i j = { 1 , if i = j 0 , if i ≠ j {\displaystyle \delta _{ij}={\begin{cases}1,&{\mbox{if }}i=j\\0,&{\mbox{if }}i\neq j\end{cases}}} . == Training == RBF networks are typically trained from pairs of input and target values x ( t ) , y ( t ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} (t),y(t)} , t = 1 , … , T {\displaystyle t=1,\dots ,T} by a two-step algorithm. In the first step, the center vectors c i {\displaystyle \mathbf {c} _{i}} of the RBF functions in the hidden layer