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Vote Compass
Vote Compass is an interactive, online voting advice application developed by political scientists and run during election campaigns. It surveys users about their political views and, based on their responses, calculates the individual alignment of each user with the parties or candidates running in a given election contest. It is operated by a social enterprise called Vox Pop Labs in partnership with locale-specific news organizations, including the Wall Street Journal, Vox Media, the Canadian and Australian Broadcasting Corporations, Television New Zealand, France24, RTL Group, and Grupo Globo. Vote Compass also operates under the trademarks Boussole électorale and Wahl-Navi for French- and German-language iterations, respectively. == Background == Vote Compass was developed by Clifton van der Linden, a professor in the Department of Political Science at McMaster University. It is run by van der Linden along with a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs. Although inspired by European Voting Advice Applications, van der Linden explicitly rejects this terminology, arguing that Vote Compass was "never intended to account for every variable that influences voter choice and its results should not be interpreted as voting advice." == Methodology == Using a Likert scale, users indicate their responses to a series of policy propositions designed to discriminate between candidates' policies on prominent issues relevant to the election. Propositions are crafted in collaboration with political scientists local to each jurisdiction in which Vote Compass is run. Based on a candidate or political party's public disclosures (i.e. party manifestos, policy proposals, official websites, speeches, media releases, statements made in the legislature, etc.) they are calibrated on the same propositions and scales as are users. A series of aggregation algorithms calculate the overall distance between the user and the candidates or parties. There have been claims that Vote Compass surveys have the potential to become push polling, if the survey questions posed are poorly designed.
Co-Büchi automaton
In automata theory, a co-Büchi automaton is a variant of Büchi automaton. The only difference is the accepting condition: a Co-Büchi automaton accepts an infinite word w {\displaystyle w} if there exists a run, such that all the states occurring infinitely often in the run are in the final state set F {\displaystyle F} . In contrast, a Büchi automaton accepts a word w {\displaystyle w} if there exists a run, such that at least one state occurring infinitely often in the final state set F {\displaystyle F} . (Deterministic) Co-Büchi automata are strictly weaker than (nondeterministic) Büchi automata. == Formal definition == Formally, a deterministic co-Büchi automaton is a tuple A = ( Q , Σ , δ , q 0 , F ) {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A}}=(Q,\Sigma ,\delta ,q_{0},F)} that consists of the following components: Q {\displaystyle Q} is a finite set. The elements of Q {\displaystyle Q} are called the states of A {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A}}} . Σ {\displaystyle \Sigma } is a finite set called the alphabet of A {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A}}} . δ : Q × Σ → Q {\displaystyle \delta :Q\times \Sigma \rightarrow Q} is the transition function of A {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A}}} . q 0 {\displaystyle q_{0}} is an element of Q {\displaystyle Q} , called the initial state. F ⊆ Q {\displaystyle F\subseteq Q} is the final state set. A {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A}}} accepts exactly those words w {\displaystyle w} with the run ρ ( w ) {\displaystyle \rho (w)} , in which all of the infinitely often occurring states in ρ ( w ) {\displaystyle \rho (w)} are in F {\displaystyle F} . In a non-deterministic co-Büchi automaton, the transition function δ {\displaystyle \delta } is replaced with a transition relation Δ {\displaystyle \Delta } . The initial state q 0 {\displaystyle q_{0}} is replaced with an initial state set Q 0 {\displaystyle Q_{0}} . Generally, the term co-Büchi automaton refers to the non-deterministic co-Büchi automaton. For more comprehensive formalism see also ω-automaton. == Acceptance Condition == The acceptance condition of a co-Büchi automaton is formally ∃ i ∀ j : j ≥ i ρ ( w j ) ∈ F . {\displaystyle \exists i\forall j:\;j\geq i\quad \rho (w_{j})\in F.} The Büchi acceptance condition is the complement of the co-Büchi acceptance condition: ∀ i ∃ j : j ≥ i ρ ( w j ) ∈ F . {\displaystyle \forall i\exists j:\;j\geq i\quad \rho (w_{j})\in F.} == Properties == Co-Büchi automata are closed under union, intersection, projection and determinization.
Markov switching multifractal
In financial econometrics (the application of statistical methods to economic data), the Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) is a model of asset returns developed by Laurent E. Calvet and Adlai J. Fisher that incorporates stochastic volatility components of heterogeneous durations. MSM captures the outliers, log-memory-like volatility persistence and power variation of financial returns. In currency and equity series, MSM compares favorably with standard volatility models such as GARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH both in- and out-of-sample. MSM is used by practitioners in the financial industry for different types of forecasts. == MSM specification == The MSM model can be specified in both discrete time and continuous time. === Discrete time === Let P t {\displaystyle P_{t}} denote the price of a financial asset, and let r t = ln ( P t / P t − 1 ) {\displaystyle r_{t}=\ln(P_{t}/P_{t-1})} denote the return over two consecutive periods. In MSM, returns are specified as r t = μ + σ ¯ ( M 1 , t M 2 , t . . . M k ¯ , t ) 1 / 2 ϵ t , {\displaystyle r_{t}=\mu +{\bar {\sigma }}(M_{1,t}M_{2,t}...M_{{\bar {k}},t})^{1/2}\epsilon _{t},} where μ {\displaystyle \mu } and σ {\displaystyle \sigma } are constants and { ϵ t {\displaystyle \epsilon _{t}} } are independent standard Gaussians. Volatility is driven by the first-order latent Markov state vector: M t = ( M 1 , t M 2 , t … M k ¯ , t ) ∈ R + k ¯ . {\displaystyle M_{t}=(M_{1,t}M_{2,t}\dots M_{{\bar {k}},t})\in R_{+}^{\bar {k}}.} Given the volatility state M t {\displaystyle M_{t}} , the next-period multiplier M k , t + 1 {\displaystyle M_{k,t+1}} is drawn from a fixed distribution M with probability γ k {\displaystyle \gamma _{k}} , and is otherwise left unchanged. The transition probabilities are specified by γ k = 1 − ( 1 − γ 1 ) ( b k − 1 ) {\displaystyle \gamma _{k}=1-(1-\gamma _{1})^{(b^{k-1})}} . The sequence γ k {\displaystyle \gamma _{k}} is approximately geometric γ k ≈ γ 1 b k − 1 {\displaystyle \gamma _{k}\approx \gamma _{1}b^{k-1}} at low frequency. The marginal distribution M has a unit mean, has a positive support, and is independent of k. ==== Binomial MSM ==== In empirical applications, the distribution M is often a discrete distribution that can take the values m 0 {\displaystyle m_{0}} or 2 − m 0 {\displaystyle 2-m_{0}} with equal probability. The return process r t {\displaystyle r_{t}} is then specified by the parameters θ = ( m 0 , μ , σ ¯ , b , γ 1 ) {\displaystyle \theta =(m_{0},\mu ,{\bar {\sigma }},b,\gamma _{1})} . Note that the number of parameters is the same for all k ¯ > 1 {\displaystyle {\bar {k}}>1} . === Continuous time === MSM is similarly defined in continuous time. The price process follows the diffusion: d P t P t = μ d t + σ ( M t ) d W t , {\displaystyle {\frac {dP_{t}}{P_{t}}}=\mu dt+\sigma (M_{t})\,dW_{t},} where σ ( M t ) = σ ¯ ( M 1 , t … M k ¯ , t ) 1 / 2 {\displaystyle \sigma (M_{t})={\bar {\sigma }}(M_{1,t}\dots M_{{\bar {k}},t})^{1/2}} , W t {\displaystyle W_{t}} is a standard Brownian motion, and μ {\displaystyle \mu } and σ ¯ {\displaystyle {\bar {\sigma }}} are constants. Each component follows the dynamics: The intensities vary geometrically with k: γ k = γ 1 b k − 1 . {\displaystyle \gamma _{k}=\gamma _{1}b^{k-1}.} When the number of components k ¯ {\displaystyle {\bar {k}}} goes to infinity, continuous-time MSM converges to a multifractal diffusion, whose sample paths take a continuum of local Hölder exponents on any finite time interval. == Inference and closed-form likelihood == When M {\displaystyle M} has a discrete distribution, the Markov state vector M t {\displaystyle M_{t}} takes finitely many values m 1 , . . . , m d ∈ R + k ¯ {\displaystyle m^{1},...,m^{d}\in R_{+}^{\bar {k}}} . For instance, there are d = 2 k ¯ {\displaystyle d=2^{\bar {k}}} possible states in binomial MSM. The Markov dynamics are characterized by the transition matrix A = ( a i , j ) 1 ≤ i , j ≤ d {\displaystyle A=(a_{i,j})_{1\leq i,j\leq d}} with components a i , j = P ( M t + 1 = m j | M t = m i ) {\displaystyle a_{i,j}=P\left(M_{t+1}=m^{j}|M_{t}=m^{i}\right)} . Conditional on the volatility state, the return r t {\displaystyle r_{t}} has Gaussian density f ( r t | M t = m i ) = 1 2 π σ 2 ( m i ) exp [ − ( r t − μ ) 2 2 σ 2 ( m i ) ] . {\displaystyle f(r_{t}|M_{t}=m^{i})={\frac {1}{\sqrt {2\pi \sigma ^{2}(m^{i})}}}\exp \left[-{\frac {(r_{t}-\mu )^{2}}{2\sigma ^{2}(m^{i})}}\right].} === Conditional distribution === === Closed-form Likelihood === The log likelihood function has the following analytical expression: ln L ( r 1 , … , r T ; θ ) = ∑ t = 1 T ln [ ω ( r t ) . ( Π t − 1 A ) ] . {\displaystyle \ln L(r_{1},\dots ,r_{T};\theta )=\sum _{t=1}^{T}\ln[\omega (r_{t}).(\Pi _{t-1}A)].} Maximum likelihood provides reasonably precise estimates in finite samples. === Other estimation methods === When M {\displaystyle M} has a continuous distribution, estimation can proceed by simulated method of moments, or simulated likelihood via a particle filter. == Forecasting == Given r 1 , … , r t {\displaystyle r_{1},\dots ,r_{t}} , the conditional distribution of the latent state vector at date t + n {\displaystyle t+n} is given by: Π ^ t , n = Π t A n . {\displaystyle {\hat {\Pi }}_{t,n}=\Pi _{t}A^{n}.\,} MSM often provides better volatility forecasts than some of the best traditional models both in and out of sample. Calvet and Fisher report considerable gains in exchange rate volatility forecasts at horizons of 10 to 50 days as compared with GARCH(1,1), Markov-Switching GARCH, and Fractionally Integrated GARCH. Lux obtains similar results using linear predictions. == Applications == === Multiple assets and value-at-risk === Extensions of MSM to multiple assets provide reliable estimates of the value-at-risk in a portfolio of securities. === Asset pricing === In financial economics, MSM has been used to analyze the pricing implications of multifrequency risk. The models have had some success in explaining the excess volatility of stock returns compared to fundamentals and the negative skewness of equity returns. They have also been used to generate multifractal jump-diffusions. == Related approaches == MSM is a stochastic volatility model with arbitrarily many frequencies. MSM builds on the convenience of regime-switching models, which were advanced in economics and finance by James D. Hamilton. MSM is closely related to the Multifractal Model of Asset Returns. MSM improves on the MMAR's combinatorial construction by randomizing arrival times, guaranteeing a strictly stationary process. MSM provides a pure regime-switching formulation of multifractal measures, which were pioneered by Benoit Mandelbrot.
Pumping lemma for regular languages
In the theory of formal languages, the pumping lemma for regular languages is a lemma that describes an essential property of all regular languages. Informally, it says that all sufficiently long strings in a regular language may be pumped—that is, have a middle section of the string repeated an arbitrary number of times—to produce a new string that is also part of the language. The pumping lemma is useful for proving that a specific language is not a regular language, by showing that the language does not have the property. Specifically, the pumping lemma says that for any regular language L {\displaystyle L} , there exists a constant p {\displaystyle p} such that any string w {\displaystyle w} in L {\displaystyle L} with length at least p {\displaystyle p} can be split into three substrings x {\displaystyle x} , y {\displaystyle y} and z {\displaystyle z} ( w = x y z {\displaystyle w=xyz} , with y {\displaystyle y} being non-empty), such that the strings x z , x y z , x y y z , x y y y z , . . . {\displaystyle xz,xyz,xyyz,xyyyz,...} are also in L {\displaystyle L} . The process of repeating y {\displaystyle y} zero or more times is known as "pumping". Moreover, the pumping lemma guarantees that the length of x y {\displaystyle xy} will be at most p {\displaystyle p} , thus giving a "small" substring x y {\displaystyle xy} that has the desired property. Languages with a finite number of strings vacuously satisfy the pumping lemma by having p {\displaystyle p} equal to the maximum string length in L {\displaystyle L} plus one. By doing so, no strings at all in L {\displaystyle L} have length at least p {\displaystyle p} . The pumping lemma was first proven by Michael Rabin and Dana Scott in 1959, and rediscovered shortly after by Yehoshua Bar-Hillel, Micha A. Perles, and Eli Shamir in 1961, as a simplification of their pumping lemma for context-free languages. == Formal statement == Let L {\displaystyle L} be a regular language. Then there exists an integer p ≥ 1 {\displaystyle p\geq 1} depending only on L {\displaystyle L} such that every string w {\displaystyle w} in L {\displaystyle L} of length at least p {\displaystyle p} ( p {\displaystyle p} is called the "pumping length") can be written as w = x y z {\displaystyle w=xyz} (i.e., w {\displaystyle w} can be divided into three substrings), satisfying the following conditions: | y | ≥ 1 {\displaystyle |y|\geq 1} | x y | ≤ p {\displaystyle |xy|\leq p} ( ∀ n ≥ 0 ) ( x y n z ∈ L ) {\displaystyle (\forall n\geq 0)(xy^{n}z\in L)} y {\displaystyle y} is the substring that can be pumped (removed or repeated any number of times, and the resulting string is always in L {\displaystyle L} ). (1) means the loop y {\displaystyle y} to be pumped must be of length at least one, that is, not an empty string; (2) means the loop must occur within the first p {\displaystyle p} characters. | x | {\displaystyle |x|} must be smaller than p {\displaystyle p} (conclusion of (1) and (2)), but apart from that, there is no restriction on x {\displaystyle x} and z {\displaystyle z} . In simple words, for any regular language L {\displaystyle L} , any sufficiently long string w {\displaystyle w} (in L {\displaystyle L} ) can be split into 3 parts, i.e. w = x y z {\displaystyle w=xyz} , such that all the strings x y n z {\displaystyle xy^{n}z} for n ≥ 0 {\displaystyle n\geq 0} are also in L {\displaystyle L} . Below is a formal expression of the pumping lemma. ∀ L ⊆ Σ ∗ , regular ( L ) ⟹ ∃ p ≥ 1 , ∀ w ∈ L , | w | ≥ p ⟹ ∃ x , y , z ∈ Σ ∗ , ( w = x y z ) ∧ ( | y | ≥ 1 ) ∧ ( | x y | ≤ p ) ∧ ( ∀ n ≥ 0 , x y n z ∈ L ) {\displaystyle {\begin{array}{l}\forall L\subseteq \Sigma ^{},{\mbox{regular}}(L)\implies \\\quad \exists p\geq 1,\forall w\in L,|w|\geq p\implies \\\qquad \exists x,y,z\in \Sigma ^{},(w=xyz)\land (|y|\geq 1)\land (|xy|\leq p)\land (\forall n\geq 0,xy^{n}z\in L)\end{array}}} == Use of the lemma to prove non-regularity == The pumping lemma is often used to prove that a particular language is non-regular: a proof by contradiction may consist of exhibiting a string (of the required length) in the language that lacks the property outlined in the pumping lemma. Example: The language L = { a n b n : n ≥ 0 } {\displaystyle L=\{a^{n}b^{n}:n\geq 0\}} over the alphabet Σ = { a , b } {\displaystyle \Sigma =\{a,b\}} can be shown to be non-regular as follows: Assume that some constant p ≥ 1 {\displaystyle p\geq 1} exists as required by the lemma. Let w {\displaystyle w} in L {\displaystyle L} be given by w = a p b p {\displaystyle w=a^{p}b^{p}} , which is a string longer than p {\displaystyle p} . By the pumping lemma, there must exist a decomposition w = x y z {\displaystyle w=xyz} with | x y | ≤ p {\displaystyle |xy|\leq p} and | y | ≥ 1 {\displaystyle |y|\geq 1} such that x y i z {\displaystyle xy^{i}z} in L {\displaystyle L} for every i ≥ 0 {\displaystyle i\geq 0} . Since | x y | ≤ p {\displaystyle |xy|\leq p} , the string y {\displaystyle y} only consists of instances of a {\displaystyle a} . Because | y | ≥ 1 {\displaystyle |y|\geq 1} , it contains at least one instance of the letter a {\displaystyle a} . Pumping y {\displaystyle y} to give x y 2 z {\displaystyle xy^{2}z} gives a word with more instances of the letter a {\displaystyle a} than the letter b {\displaystyle b} , since some instances of a {\displaystyle a} but none of b {\displaystyle b} were added. Therefore, x y 2 z {\displaystyle xy^{2}z} is not in L {\displaystyle L} which contradicts the pumping lemma. Therefore, L {\displaystyle L} cannot be regular. The proof that the language of balanced (i.e., properly nested) parentheses is not regular follows the same idea. Given p {\displaystyle p} , there is a string of balanced parentheses that begins with more than p {\displaystyle p} left parentheses, so that y {\displaystyle y} will consist entirely of left parentheses. By repeating y {\displaystyle y} , a string can be produced that does not contain the same number of left and right parentheses, and so they cannot be balanced. == Proof of the pumping lemma == For every regular language there is a finite-state automaton (FSA) that accepts the language. The number of states in such an FSA are counted and that count is used as the pumping length p {\displaystyle p} . For a string of length at least p {\displaystyle p} , let q 0 {\displaystyle q_{0}} be the start state and let q 1 , . . . , q p {\displaystyle q_{1},...,q_{p}} be the sequence of the next p {\displaystyle p} states visited as the string is emitted. Because the FSA has only p {\displaystyle p} states, within this sequence of p + 1 {\displaystyle p+1} visited states there must be at least one state that is repeated. Write q s {\displaystyle q_{s}} for such a state. The transitions that take the machine from the first encounter of state q s {\displaystyle q_{s}} to the second encounter of state q s {\displaystyle q_{s}} match some string. This string is called y {\displaystyle y} in the lemma, and since the machine will match a string without the y {\displaystyle y} portion, or with the string y {\displaystyle y} repeated any number of times, the conditions of the lemma are satisfied. For example, the following image shows an FSA. The FSA accepts the string: abcd. Since this string has a length at least as large as the number of states, which is four (so the total number of states that the machine passes through to scan abcd would be 5), the pigeonhole principle indicates that there must be at least one repeated state among the start state and the next four visited states. In this example, only q 1 {\displaystyle q_{1}} is a repeated state. Since the substring bc takes the machine through transitions that start at state q 1 {\displaystyle q_{1}} and end at state q 1 {\displaystyle q_{1}} , that portion could be repeated and the FSA would still accept, giving the string abcbcd. Alternatively, the bc portion could be removed and the FSA would still accept giving the string ad. In terms of the pumping lemma, the string abcd is broken into an x {\displaystyle x} portion a, a y {\displaystyle y} portion bc and a z {\displaystyle z} portion d. As a side remark, the problem of checking whether a given string can be accepted by a given nondeterministic finite automaton without visiting any state repeatedly, is NP hard. == General version of pumping lemma for regular languages == If a language L {\displaystyle L} is regular, then there exists a number p ≥ 1 {\displaystyle p\geq 1} (the pumping length) such that every string u w v {\displaystyle uwv} in L {\displaystyle L} with | w | ≥ p {\displaystyle |w|\geq p} can be written in the form u w v = u x y z v {\displaystyle uwv=uxyzv} with strings x {\displaystyle x} , y {\displaystyle y} and z {\displaystyle z} such that | x y | ≤ p {\displaystyle |xy|\leq p} , | y | ≥ 1 {\displaystyle |y|\geq 1} and u x y i z v {\displaystyle uxy^{i}zv} is in L {\displaystyle L} for every integer i ≥ 0 {\displaystyle i\geq 0} . From this, the above standard v
GOLOG
GOLOG is a high-level logic programming language for the specification and execution of complex actions in dynamical domains. It is based on the situation calculus. It is a first-order logical language for reasoning about action and change. GOLOG was developed at the University of Toronto. == History == The concept of situation calculus on which the GOLOG programming language is based was first proposed by John McCarthy in 1963. == Description == A GOLOG interpreter automatically maintains a direct characterization of the dynamic world being modeled, on the basis of user supplied axioms about preconditions, effects of actions and the initial state of the world. This allows the application to reason about the condition of the world and consider the impacts of different potential actions before focusing on a specific action. Golog is a logic programming language and is very different from conventional programming languages. A procedural programming language like C defines the execution of statements in advance. The programmer creates a subroutine which consists of statements, and the computer executes each statement in a linear order. In contrast, fifth-generation programming languages like Golog work with an abstract model with which the interpreter can generate the sequence of actions. The source code defines the problem and it is up to the solver to find the next action. This approach can facilitate the management of complex problems from the domain of robotics. A Golog program defines the state space in which the agent is allowed to operate. A path in the symbolic domain is found with state space search. To speed up the process, Golog programs are realized as hierarchical task networks. Apart from the original Golog language, there are some extensions available. The ConGolog language provides concurrency and interrupts. Other dialects like IndiGolog and Readylog were created for real time applications in which sensor readings are updated on the fly. == Uses == Golog has been used to model the behavior of autonomous agents. In addition to a logic-based action formalism for describing the environment and the effects of basic actions, they enable the construction of complex actions using typical programming language constructs. It is also used for applications in high level control of robots and industrial processes, virtual agents, discrete event simulation etc. It can be also used to develop Belief Desire Intention-style agent systems. == Planning and scripting == In contrast to the Planning Domain Definition Language, Golog supports planning and scripting as well. Planning means that a goal state in the world model is defined, and the solver brings a logical system into this state. Behavior scripting implements reactive procedures, which are running as a computer program. For example, suppose the idea is to authoring a story. The user defines what should be true at the end of the plot. A solver gets started and applies possible actions to the current situation until the goal state is reached. The specification of a goal state and the possible actions are realized in the logical world model. In contrast, a hardwired reactive behavior doesn't need a solver but the action sequence is provided in a scripting language. The Golog interpreter, which is written in Prolog, executes the script and this will bring the story into the goal state.
Language Weaver
Language Weaver is the machine translation (MT) technology and brand of RWS. The brand name was revived in 2021 following the acquisition of SDL and Iconic Translation Machines Ltd. and the merging of the respective teams and technologies. Language Weaver was formerly a standalone company that was acquired by SDL in 2010. == History == Language Weaver was a Los Angeles, California–based company founded in 2002 as a spin-out company from the University of Southern California. The company was founded to commercialise a statistical approach to automatic language translation and natural language processing known as statistical machine translation (SMT). The company's name is a reference to one of the pioneers of machine translation — Warren Weaver — who first proposed the idea of using computers to ‘decode’ or ‘decrypt’ language in a memorandum back in 1947. Language Weaver’s statistical approach to machine translation was cutting-edge at the time, and a significant improvement over previous approaches such as Rule-Based MT. Language Weaver grew steadily over an 8 year period, with staff numbers totalling 96 across offices in US, Europe, and Japan. The company had significant business with Government organisations where its name continues to hold strong recognition to this day. In July 2010, Language Weaver was acquired by SDL plc for $42.5 million and the company was renamed SDL Language Weaver. == SDL Language Weaver == SDL Language Weaver was the primary machine translation technology at SDL where, over time, it evolved from SMT to syntax-based MT, to Neural Machine Translation. The Language Weaver brand was retired in 2015 in favour of SDL BeGlobal for the cloud-based solution, and SDL Enterprise Translation Server for the on-premise solution. Later, these products were rebranded again as SDL Machine Translation Cloud and SDL Machine Translation Edge respectively. == 2021 Relaunch == The Language Weaver brand was revived in 2021 following the acquisition of SDL by RWS, and the merger of the SDL MT and Iconic Translation Machines teams and technologies. The combined technologies of both companies, based on state-of-the-art Transformer-based Neural Machine Translation, are now sold as "Language Weaver" for cloud-based MT, and "Language Weaver Edge" for on-premise MT. == Supported languages == As of September 2021, Language Weaver supports the following languages and language varieties: