An automated (car) parking system (APS) is a mechanical system designed to minimize the area and/or volume required for parking cars. Like a multi-story parking garage, an APS provides parking for cars on multiple levels stacked vertically to maximize the number of parking spaces while minimizing land usage. The APS, however, utilizes a mechanical system to transport cars to and from parking spaces (rather than the driver) in order to eliminate much of the space wasted in a multi-story parking garage. While a multi-story parking garage is similar to multiple parking lots stacked vertically, an APS is more similar to an automated storage and retrieval system for cars. Parking systems are generally powered by electric motors or hydraulic pumps that move vehicles into a storage position.The paternoster (shown animated at the right) is an example of one of the earliest and most common types of APS. APS are also generically known by a variety of other names, including:automated parking facility (APF), automated vehicle storage and retrieval system (AVSRS), car parking system, mechanical parking, and robotic parking garage. == History == The concept for the automated parking system was and is driven by two factors: a need for parking spaces and a scarcity of available land. The earliest use of an APS was in Paris, France in 1905 at the Garage Rue de Ponthieu. The APS consisted of a groundbreaking multi-story concrete structure with an internal car elevator to transport cars to upper levels where attendants parked the cars. In the 1920s, a Ferris wheel-like APS (for cars rather than people) called a paternoster system became popular as it could park eight cars in the ground space normally used for parking two cars. Mechanically simple with a small footprint, the paternoster was easy to use in many places, including inside buildings. At the same time, Kent Automatic Garages was installing APS with capacities exceeding 1,000 cars. The “ferris-wheel,” or paternoster system — was created by the Westinghouse Corporation in 1923 and subsequently built in 1932 on Chicago's Monroe Street. The Nash Motor Company created the first glass-enclosed version of this system for the Chicago Century of Progress Exhibition in 1933 The first driverless parking garage opened in 1951 in Washington, D.C., but was replaced with office space due to increasing land values. APS saw a spurt of interest in the U.S. in the late 1940s and 1950s with the Bowser, Pigeon Hole and Roto Park systems. In 1957, 74 Bowser, Pigeon Hole systems were installed, and some of these systems remain in operation. However, interest in APS in the U.S. waned due to frequent mechanical problems and long waiting times for patrons to retrieve their cars. In the United Kingdom, the Auto Stacker opened in 1961 in Woolwich, south east London, but proved equally difficult to operate. Interest in APS in the U.S. was renewed in the 1990s, and there were 25 major current and planned APS projects (representing nearly 6,000 parking spaces) in 2012. The first American robotic parking garage opened in 2002 in Hoboken, New Jersey. While interest in the APS in the U.S. languished until the 1990s, Europe, Asia and Central America had been installing more technically advanced APS since the 1970s. In the early 1990s, nearly 40,000 parking spaces were being built annually using the paternoster APS in Japan. In 2012, there are an estimated 1.6 million APS parking spaces in Japan. The ever-increasing scarcity of available urban land (urbanization) and increase of the number of cars in use (motorization) have combined with sustainability and other quality-of-life issues to renew interest in APS as alternatives to multi-storey car parks, on-street parking, and parking lots. == Largest systems == The largest Automated Parking Facility in the world is in Al Jahra, Kuwait, and provides 2,314 parking spaces. The world's fastest Automated Parking System is in Wolfsburg, Germany, with a retrieval time of 1 minute and 44 seconds. The largest APS in Europe is at Dokk1 in Aarhus, Denmark, and provides 1,000 parking spaces via 20 car lifts. == Space saving == All APS take advantage of a common concept to decrease the area of parking spaces - removing the driver and passengers from the car before it is parked. With either fully automated or semi-automated APS, the car is driven up to an entry point to the APS and the driver and passengers exit the car. The car is then moved automatically or semi-automatically (with some attendant action required) to its parking space. The space-saving provided by the APS, compared to the multi-story parking garage, is derived primarily from a significant reduction in space not directly related to the parking of the car: Parking space width and depth (and distances between parking spaces) are dramatically reduced since no allowance need be made for driving the car into the parking space or for the opening of car doors (for drivers and passengers) No driving lanes or ramps are needed to drive the car to/from the entrance/exit to a parking space Ceiling height is minimized since there is no pedestrian traffic (drivers and passengers) in the parking area, and No walkways, stairways or elevators are needed to accommodate pedestrians in the parking area. With the elimination of ramps, driving lanes, pedestrians and the reduction in ceiling heights, the APS requires substantially less structural material than the multi-story parking garage. Many APS utilize a steel framework (some use thin concrete slabs) rather than the monolithic concrete design of the multi-story parking garage. These factors contribute to an overall volume reduction and further space savings for the APS. == Other considerations == In addition to the space saving, many APS designs provide a number of secondary benefits: The parked cars and their contents are more secure since there is no public access to parked cars Minor parking lot damage such as scrapes and dents are eliminated Drivers and passengers are safer not having to walk through parking lots or garages Driving around in search of a parking space is eliminated, thereby reducing engine emissions and wasted time Only minimal ventilation and lighting systems are needed Handicap access is improved The volume and visual impact of the parking structure is minimized Shorter construction time === Problems === There have been a number of problems with robotic parking systems, particularly in the United States. The systems work well in balanced throughput situations like shopping malls and train stations, but they are unsuited to high peak volume applications like rush hour usage or stadiums and they suffer from technical problems. Further, parkers not familiar with the system may cause problems, for example by failing to push the button to alert a fully automated system to the presence of a car to be parked. In London around 40 vehicles were trapped for two years in CBRE's system. == Fully automated vs semi-automated == Fully automated parking systems operate much like robotic valet parking. The driver drives the car into an APS entry (transfer) area. The driver and all passengers exit the car. The driver uses an automated terminal nearby for payment and receipt of a ticket. When driver and passengers have left the entry area, the mechanical system lifts the car and transports it to a pre-determined parking space in the system. More sophisticated fully automated APS will obtain the dimensions of cars on entry in order to place them in the smallest available parking space. The driver retrieves a car by inserting a ticket or code into an automated terminal. The APS lifts the car from its parking space and delivers it to an exit area. Most often, the retrieved car has been oriented to eliminate the need for the driver to back out. Fully automated APS theoretically eliminate the need for parking attendants. Semi-automated APS also use a mechanical system of some type to move a car to its parking space, however putting the car into and/or the operation of the system requires some action by an attendant or the driver. The choice between fully and semi-automated APS is often a matter of space and cost, however large capacity (> 100 cars) tend to be fully automated. == Applications == By virtue of their relatively smaller volume and mechanized parking systems, APS are often used in locations where a multi-story parking garage would be too large, too costly or impractical. Examples of such applications include, under or inside existing or new structures, between existing structures and in irregularly shaped areas. APS can also be applied in situations similar to multi-storey parking garages such as freestanding above ground, under buildings above grade and under buildings below grade. == Costs == The direct comparison of costs between an APS and a multi-story parking garage can be complicated by many variables such as capacity, land costs, area shape, number and location of entranc
Tensor (machine learning)
In machine learning, the term tensor informally refers to two different concepts: (i) a way of organizing data and (ii) a multilinear (tensor) transformation. Data may be organized in a multidimensional array (M-way array), informally referred to as a "data tensor"; however, in the strict mathematical sense, a tensor is a multilinear mapping over a set of domain vector spaces to a range vector space. Observations, such as images, movies, volumes, sounds, and relationships among words and concepts, stored in an M-way array ("data tensor"), may be analyzed either by artificial neural networks or tensor methods. Tensor decomposition factors data tensors into smaller tensors. Operations on data tensors can be expressed in terms of matrix multiplication and the Kronecker product. The computation of gradients, a crucial aspect of backpropagation, can be performed using software libraries such as PyTorch and TensorFlow. Computations are often performed on graphics processing units (GPUs) using CUDA, and on dedicated hardware such as Google's Tensor Processing Unit or Nvidia's Tensor core. These developments have greatly accelerated neural network architectures, and increased the size and complexity of models that can be trained. == History == A tensor is by definition a multilinear map. In mathematics, this may express a multilinear relationship between sets of algebraic objects. In physics, tensor fields, considered as tensors at each point in space, are useful in expressing mechanics such as stress or elasticity. In machine learning, the exact use of tensors depends on the statistical approach being used. In 2001, the field of signal processing and statistics were making use of tensor methods. Pierre Comon surveys the early adoption of tensor methods in the fields of telecommunications, radio surveillance, chemometrics and sensor processing. Linear tensor rank methods (such as, Parafac/CANDECOMP) analyzed M-way arrays ("data tensors") composed of higher order statistics that were employed in blind source separation problems to compute a linear model of the data. He noted several early limitations in determining the tensor rank and efficient tensor rank decomposition. In the early 2000s, multilinear tensor methods crossed over into computer vision, computer graphics and machine learning with papers by Vasilescu or in collaboration with Terzopoulos, such as Human Motion Signatures, TensorFaces TensorTextures and Multilinear Projection. Multilinear algebra, the algebra of higher-order tensors, is a suitable and transparent framework for analyzing the multifactor structure of an ensemble of observations and for addressing the difficult problem of disentangling the causal factors based on second order or higher order statistics associated with each causal factor. Tensor (multilinear) factor analysis disentangles and reduces the influence of different causal factors with multilinear subspace learning. When treating an image or a video as a 2- or 3-way array, i.e., "data matrix/tensor", tensor methods reduce spatial or time redundancies as demonstrated by Wang and Ahuja. Yoshua Bengio, Geoff Hinton and their collaborators briefly discuss the relationship between deep neural networks and tensor factor analysis beyond the use of M-way arrays ("data tensors") as inputs. One of the early uses of tensors for neural networks appeared in natural language processing. A single word can be expressed as a vector via Word2vec. Thus a relationship between two words can be encoded in a matrix. However, for more complex relationships such as subject-object-verb, it is necessary to build higher-dimensional networks. In 2009, the work of Sutskever introduced Bayesian Clustered Tensor Factorization to model relational concepts while reducing the parameter space. From 2014 to 2015, tensor methods become more common in convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Tensor methods organize neural network weights in a "data tensor", analyze and reduce the number of neural network weights. Lebedev et al. accelerated CNN networks for character classification (the recognition of letters and digits in images) by using 4D kernel tensors. == Definition == Let F {\displaystyle \mathbb {F} } be a field (such as the real numbers R {\displaystyle \mathbb {R} } or the complex numbers C {\displaystyle \mathbb {C} } ). A tensor T ∈ F I 1 × I 2 × … × I C {\displaystyle {\mathcal {T}}\in {\mathbb {F} }^{I_{1}\times I_{2}\times \ldots \times I_{C}}} is a multilinear transformation from a set of domain vector spaces to a range vector space: T : { F I 1 × F I 2 × … F I C } ↦ F I 0 {\displaystyle {\mathcal {T}}:\{{\mathbb {F} }^{I_{1}}\times {\mathbb {F} }^{I_{2}}\times \ldots {\mathbb {F} }^{I_{C}}\}\mapsto {\mathbb {F} }^{I_{0}}} Here, C {\displaystyle C} and I 0 , I 1 , … , I C {\displaystyle I_{0},I_{1},\ldots ,I_{C}} are positive integers, and ( C + 1 ) {\displaystyle (C+1)} is the number of modes of a tensor (also known as the number of ways of a multi-way array). The dimensionality of mode c {\displaystyle c} is I c {\displaystyle I_{c}} , for 0 ≤ c ≤ C {\displaystyle 0\leq c\leq C} . In statistics and machine learning, an image is vectorized when viewed as a single observation, and a collection of vectorized images is organized as a "data tensor". For example, a set of facial images { d i p , i e , i l , i v ∈ R I X } {\displaystyle \{{\mathbb {d} }_{i_{p},i_{e},i_{l},i_{v}}\in {\mathbb {R} }^{I_{X}}\}} with I X {\displaystyle I_{X}} pixels that are the consequences of multiple causal factors, such as a facial geometry i p ( 1 ≤ i p ≤ I P ) {\displaystyle i_{p}(1\leq i_{p}\leq I_{P})} , an expression i e ( 1 ≤ i e ≤ I E ) {\displaystyle i_{e}(1\leq i_{e}\leq I_{E})} , an illumination condition i l ( 1 ≤ i l ≤ I L ) {\displaystyle i_{l}(1\leq i_{l}\leq I_{L})} , and a viewing condition i v ( 1 ≤ i v ≤ I V ) {\displaystyle i_{v}(1\leq i_{v}\leq I_{V})} may be organized into a data tensor (ie. multiway array) D ∈ R I X × I P × I E × I L × V {\displaystyle {\mathcal {D}}\in {\mathbb {R} }^{I_{X}\times I_{P}\times I_{E}\times I_{L}\times V}} where I P {\displaystyle I_{P}} are the total number of facial geometries, I E {\displaystyle I_{E}} are the total number of expressions, I L {\displaystyle I_{L}} are the total number of illumination conditions, and I V {\displaystyle I_{V}} are the total number of viewing conditions. Tensor factorizations methods such as TensorFaces and multilinear (tensor) independent component analysis factorizes the data tensor into a set of vector spaces that span the causal factor representations, where an image is the result of tensor transformation T {\displaystyle {\mathcal {T}}} that maps a set of causal factor representations to the pixel space. Another approach to using tensors in machine learning is to embed various data types directly. For example, a grayscale image, commonly represented as a discrete 2-way array D ∈ R I R X × I C X {\displaystyle {\mathbf {D} }\in {\mathbb {R} }^{I_{RX}\times I_{CX}}} with dimensionality I R X × I C X {\displaystyle I_{RX}\times I_{CX}} where I R X {\displaystyle I_{RX}} are the number of rows and I C X {\displaystyle I_{CX}} are the number of columns. When an image is treated as 2-way array or 2nd order tensor (i.e. as a collection of column/row observations), tensor factorization methods compute the image column space, the image row space and the normalized PCA coefficients or the ICA coefficients. Similarly, a color image with RGB channels, D ∈ R N × M × 3 . {\displaystyle {\mathcal {D}}\in \mathbb {R} ^{N\times M\times 3}.} may be viewed as a 3rd order data tensor or 3-way array.-------- In natural language processing, a word might be expressed as a vector v {\displaystyle v} via the Word2vec algorithm. Thus v {\displaystyle v} becomes a mode-1 tensor v ↦ A ∈ R N . {\displaystyle v\mapsto {\mathcal {A}}\in \mathbb {R} ^{N}.} The embedding of subject-object-verb semantics requires embedding relationships among three words. Because a word is itself a vector, subject-object-verb semantics could be expressed using mode-3 tensors v a × v b × v c ↦ A ∈ R N × N × N . {\displaystyle v_{a}\times v_{b}\times v_{c}\mapsto {\mathcal {A}}\in \mathbb {R} ^{N\times N\times N}.} In practice the neural network designer is primarily concerned with the specification of embeddings, the connection of tensor layers, and the operations performed on them in a network. Modern machine learning frameworks manage the optimization, tensor factorization and backpropagation automatically. === As unit values === Tensors may be used as the unit values of neural networks which extend the concept of scalar, vector and matrix values to multiple dimensions. The output value of single layer unit y m {\displaystyle y_{m}} is the sum-product of its input units and the connection weights filtered through the activation function f {\displaystyle f} : y m = f ( ∑ n x n u m , n ) , {\displaystyle y_{m}=f\left(\sum _{n}x_{n}u_{m,n}\right),} where y m ∈ R .
Sum of absolute transformed differences
The sum of absolute transformed differences (SATD) is a block matching criterion widely used in fractional motion estimation for video compression. It works by taking a frequency transform, usually a Hadamard transform, of the differences between the pixels in the original block and the corresponding pixels in the block being used for comparison. The transform itself is often of a small block rather than the entire macroblock. For example, in x264, a series of 4×4 blocks are transformed rather than doing the more processor-intensive 16×16 transform. == Comparison to other metrics == SATD is slower than the sum of absolute differences (SAD), both due to its increased complexity and the fact that SAD-specific MMX and SSE2 instructions exist, while there are no such instructions for SATD. However, SATD can still be optimized considerably with SIMD instructions on most modern CPUs. The benefit of SATD is that it more accurately models the number of bits required to transmit the residual error signal. As such, it is often used in video compressors, either as a way to drive and estimate rate explicitly, such as in the Theora encoder (since 1.1 alpha2), as an optional metric used in wide motion searches, such as in the Microsoft VC-1 encoder, or as a metric used in sub-pixel refinement, such as in x264.
Win–stay, lose–switch
In psychology, game theory, statistics, and machine learning, win–stay, lose–switch (also win–stay, lose–shift or Pavlov, named after Ivan Pavlov) is a heuristic learning strategy used to model learning in decision situations. It was first invented as an improvement over randomization in bandit problems. It was later applied to the prisoner's dilemma in order to model the evolution of altruism. In most versions, it starts either with a cooperate, then proceeds as always, or starts with a "probe" of cooperate-defect-cooperate to determine the other player's strategy. A mutual cooperation is regarded as a win. The learning rule bases its decision only on the outcome of the previous play. Outcomes are divided into successes (wins) and failures (losses). If the play on the previous round resulted in a success, then the agent plays the same strategy on the next round. Alternatively, if the play resulted in a failure the agent switches to another action. A large-scale empirical study of players of the game rock, paper, scissors shows that a variation of this strategy is adopted by real-world players of the game, instead of the Nash equilibrium strategy of choosing entirely at random between the three options.
Alternating decision tree
An alternating decision tree (ADTree) is a machine learning method for classification. It generalizes decision trees and has connections to boosting. An ADTree consists of an alternation of decision nodes, which specify a predicate condition, and prediction nodes, which contain a single number. An instance is classified by an ADTree by following all paths for which all decision nodes are true, and summing any prediction nodes that are traversed. == History == ADTrees were introduced by Yoav Freund and Llew Mason. However, the algorithm as presented had several typographical errors. Clarifications and optimizations were later presented by Bernhard Pfahringer, Geoffrey Holmes and Richard Kirkby. Implementations are available in Weka and JBoost. == Motivation == Original boosting algorithms typically used either decision stumps or decision trees as weak hypotheses. As an example, boosting decision stumps creates a set of T {\displaystyle T} weighted decision stumps (where T {\displaystyle T} is the number of boosting iterations), which then vote on the final classification according to their weights. Individual decision stumps are weighted according to their ability to classify the data. Boosting a simple learner results in an unstructured set of T {\displaystyle T} hypotheses, making it difficult to infer correlations between attributes. Alternating decision trees introduce structure to the set of hypotheses by requiring that they build off a hypothesis that was produced in an earlier iteration. The resulting set of hypotheses can be visualized in a tree based on the relationship between a hypothesis and its "parent." Another important feature of boosted algorithms is that the data is given a different distribution at each iteration. Instances that are misclassified are given a larger weight while accurately classified instances are given reduced weight. == Alternating decision tree structure == An alternating decision tree consists of decision nodes and prediction nodes. Decision nodes specify a predicate condition. Prediction nodes contain a single number. ADTrees always have prediction nodes as both root and leaves. An instance is classified by an ADTree by following all paths for which all decision nodes are true and summing any prediction nodes that are traversed. This is different from binary classification trees such as CART (Classification and regression tree) or C4.5 in which an instance follows only one path through the tree. === Example === The following tree was constructed using JBoost on the spambase dataset (available from the UCI Machine Learning Repository). In this example, spam is coded as 1 and regular email is coded as −1. The following table contains part of the information for a single instance. The instance is scored by summing all of the prediction nodes through which it passes. In the case of the instance above, the score is calculated as The final score of 0.657 is positive, so the instance is classified as spam. The magnitude of the value is a measure of confidence in the prediction. The original authors list three potential levels of interpretation for the set of attributes identified by an ADTree: Individual nodes can be evaluated for their own predictive ability. Sets of nodes on the same path may be interpreted as having a joint effect The tree can be interpreted as a whole. Care must be taken when interpreting individual nodes as the scores reflect a re weighting of the data in each iteration. == Description of the algorithm == The inputs to the alternating decision tree algorithm are: A set of inputs ( x 1 , y 1 ) , … , ( x m , y m ) {\displaystyle (x_{1},y_{1}),\ldots ,(x_{m},y_{m})} where x i {\displaystyle x_{i}} is a vector of attributes and y i {\displaystyle y_{i}} is either -1 or 1. Inputs are also called instances. A set of weights w i {\displaystyle w_{i}} corresponding to each instance. The fundamental element of the ADTree algorithm is the rule. A single rule consists of a precondition, a condition, and two scores. A condition is a predicate of the form "attribute
Meta-Labeling
Meta-labeling, also known as corrective AI, is a machine learning (ML) technique utilized in quantitative finance to enhance the performance of investment and trading strategies, developed in 2017 by Marcos López de Prado at Guggenheim Partners and Cornell University. The core idea is to separate the decision of trade direction (side) from the decision of trade sizing, addressing the inefficiencies of simultaneously learning both side and size predictions. The side decision involves forecasting market movements (long, short, neutral), while the size decision focuses on risk management and profitability. It serves as a secondary decision-making layer that evaluates the signals generated by a primary predictive model. By assessing the confidence and likely profitability of those signals, meta-labeling allows investors and algorithms to dynamically size positions and suppress false positives. == Motivation == Meta-labeling is designed to improve precision without sacrificing recall. As noted by López de Prado, attempting to model both the direction and the magnitude of a trade using a single algorithm can result in poor generalization. By separating these tasks, meta-labeling enables greater flexibility and robustness: Enhances control over capital allocation. Reduces overfitting by limiting model complexity. Allows the use of interpretability tools and tailored thresholds to manage risk. Enables dynamic trade suppression in unfavorable regimes. == Applications == Meta-labeling has been applied in a variety of financial ML contexts, including: Algorithmic trading: Filtering and sizing trades to reduce false positives. Portfolio optimization: Scaling exposure across multiple signals with differing confidence levels. Risk management: Dynamically disabling strategies in adverse market conditions. Model validation: Interpreting when and why a model may be underperforming due to regime shifts. == General architecture == Meta-labeling decouples two core components of systematic trading strategies: directional prediction and position sizing. The process involves training a primary model to generate trade signals (e.g., buy, sell, or hold) and then training a secondary model to determine whether each signal is likely to lead to a profitable trade. The second model outputs a probability that is interpreted as the confidence in the forecast, which can be used to adjust the position size or to filter out unreliable trades. Meta-labeling is typically implemented as a three-stage process: Primary model (M1): Predicts the direction or label of a financial outcome using features such as market prices, returns, or volatility indicators. A typical output is directional, e.g., Y ∈ {−1,0,1}, representing short, neutral, or long positions. Secondary model (M2): A binary classifier trained to predict whether the primary model's prediction will be profitable. The target variable is a binary meta-label F ∈ { 0 , 1 } {\displaystyle F\in \{0,1\}} . Inputs can include features used in the primary model, performance diagnostics, or market regime data. Position sizing algorithm (M3): Translates the output probability of the secondary model into a position size. Higher confidence scores result in larger allocations, while lower confidence leads to reduced or zero exposure. === Stage 1: Forecasting side === Primary model architecture Figure 1 Figure 1 presents the architecture of a primary model. It focuses on forecasting the side of the trade. Following the example, this model (M1) takes in input data – such as open-high-low-close data and determines the side of the position to take: a negative number is a short position, and positive number is a long position, the range is set between −1 and 1 (the closer it is to −1 or 1, the stronger the models conviction is). When training the model, the labels are −1 and 1, based on the direction of forward returns for some predefined investment horizon. The researcher may decide to apply a recall check (τ: "Tau") by setting a minimum threshold that the initial output needs to be to qualify of a short or long position (if the threshold is not met, no side forecast is predicted, leading to closing of any open positions), this leads to the primary model output which is one of three possible side forecasts: −1, 0, or 1. The primary model also generates evaluation data which can be used by the secondary model, to improve performance of size forecasts. Some examples of evaluation data include rolling accuracy, F1, recall, precision, and AUC scores. === Stage 2: Filtering out false positives === General meta-labeling architecture Figure 2 Next comes the phase of filtering out false positives, by applying a secondary machine learning model (M2), which is a binary classifier trained to determine if the trade will be profitable or not. The model takes as input four general groupings of data: General input data which is predictive of a false positive. For example the last 30 days rolling volatility of the underlying asset. Evaluation data. Market state and regime data, one may find that macro economic data or clustering the market into regimes may help as specific trading strategies are known to perform better in particular regimes. Example: momentum based strategies perform best in periods with low volatility and strong directional moves. Primary models initial input which is a value between −1 and 1. This highlights the strength of the primary models conviction. The output of the model is a value between −1 and 1 (if using a Tanh function) which will indicate the strength of the conviction that a short or long position is profitable, or it could simply be between 0 and 1 (using a sigmoid function) if one only wanted to know if it made money or not. This output allows filtering out trades that are likely to lead to losses. One could stop at this point or use the outputs of the secondary model as inputs to a position sizing algorithm (M3) which could further enhance strategy performance metrics by translating the output probability of the secondary model into a position size. Higher confidence scores result in larger allocations, while lower confidence leads to reduced or zero exposure. === Stage 3: Optimizing position sizes === ==== Position sizing methods (M3) ==== Various algorithms have been proposed for transforming predicted probabilities into trade sizes: All-or-nothing: Allocate 100% of capital if the probability exceeds a predefined threshold (e.g., 0.5); otherwise, do not trade. Model confidence: Use the probability score directly as the fraction of capital allocated. Linear scaling: Rescale the model's probabilities using min-max normalization based on the training data. Normal CDF (NCDF): Use a normal cumulative distribution function applied to a z-statistic derived from the predicted probability. Empirical CDF (ECDF): Rank probabilities based on their percentile in the training data to ensure relative allocation. Sigmoid Optimal Position Sizing (SOPS): Applies a smooth non-linear sigmoid transformation optimized to maximize risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio). ==== Model calibration ==== Each machine learning algorithm used in meta-labeling tends to produce outputs with different characteristic distributions; for example, some are approximately normally distributed, whereas others exhibit a pronounced U-shape, concentrating probabilities near the extremes. Due to these varying distributions, simply summing the outputs of different models can inadvertently lead to uneven weighting of signals, biasing trade decisions. To address this, model calibration techniques are essential to adjust the predicted probabilities towards frequentist probabilities, ensuring that model outputs reflect true likelihoods more accurately. Two common calibration techniques are: Platt scaling (Sigmoid scaling): Suitable for correcting S-shaped calibration plots typically produced by models such as support vector machines (SVMs). Isotonic regression: Fits a non-decreasing step function to probabilities and is effective particularly with larger datasets, though it can sometimes lead to overfitting. Transforming predictions to frequentist probabilities is crucial as it provides probabilistic outputs that are directly interpretable as the actual likelihood of an event occurring. Such calibration significantly enhances the effectiveness of fixed position sizing methods, reducing maximum drawdowns and increasing risk-adjusted returns. However, calibration has less impact on position sizing methods that directly estimate parameters from the training data, such as ECDF and SOPS, suggesting that calibration is a critical step mainly for fixed methods that rely heavily on raw model outputs. =
Bayesian network
A Bayesian network (also known as a Bayes network, Bayes net, belief network, or decision network) is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). While it is one of several forms of causal notation, causal networks are special cases of Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks are ideal for taking an event that occurred and predicting the likelihood that any one of several possible known causes was the contributing factor. For example, a Bayesian network could represent the probabilistic relationships between diseases and symptoms. Given symptoms, the network can be used to compute the probabilities of the presence of various diseases. Efficient algorithms can perform inference and learning in Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks that model sequences of variables (e.g. speech signals or protein sequences) are called dynamic Bayesian networks. Generalizations of Bayesian networks that can represent and solve decision problems under uncertainty are called influence diagrams. == Graphical model == Formally, Bayesian networks are directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) whose nodes represent variables in the Bayesian sense: they may be observable quantities, latent variables, unknown parameters or hypotheses. Each edge represents a direct conditional dependency. Any pair of nodes that are not connected (i.e. no path connects one node to the other) represent variables that are conditionally independent of each other. Each node is associated with a probability function that takes, as input, a particular set of values for the node's parent variables, and gives (as output) the probability (or probability distribution, if applicable) of the variable represented by the node. For example, if m {\displaystyle m} parent nodes represent m {\displaystyle m} Boolean variables, then the probability function could be represented by a table of 2 m {\displaystyle 2^{m}} entries, one entry for each of the 2 m {\displaystyle 2^{m}} possible parent combinations. Similar ideas may be applied to undirected, and possibly cyclic, graphs such as Markov networks. == Example == Suppose we want to model the dependencies between three variables: the sprinkler (or more appropriately, its state - whether it is on or not), the presence or absence of rain and whether the grass is wet or not. Observe that two events can cause the grass to become wet: an active sprinkler or rain. Rain has a direct effect on the use of the sprinkler (namely that when it rains, the sprinkler usually is not active). This situation can be modeled with a Bayesian network (shown to the right). Each variable has two possible values, T (for true) and F (for false). The joint probability function is, by the chain rule of probability, Pr ( G , S , R ) = Pr ( G ∣ S , R ) Pr ( S ∣ R ) Pr ( R ) {\displaystyle \Pr(G,S,R)=\Pr(G\mid S,R)\Pr(S\mid R)\Pr(R)} where G = "Grass wet (true/false)", S = "Sprinkler turned on (true/false)", and R = "Raining (true/false)". The model can answer questions about the presence of a cause given the presence of an effect (so-called inverse probability) like "What is the probability that it is raining, given the grass is wet?" by using the conditional probability formula and summing over all nuisance variables: Pr ( R = T ∣ G = T ) = Pr ( G = T , R = T ) Pr ( G = T ) = ∑ x ∈ { T , F } Pr ( G = T , S = x , R = T ) ∑ x , y ∈ { T , F } Pr ( G = T , S = x , R = y ) {\displaystyle \Pr(R=T\mid G=T)={\frac {\Pr(G=T,R=T)}{\Pr(G=T)}}={\frac {\sum _{x\in \{T,F\}}\Pr(G=T,S=x,R=T)}{\sum _{x,y\in \{T,F\}}\Pr(G=T,S=x,R=y)}}} Using the expansion for the joint probability function Pr ( G , S , R ) {\displaystyle \Pr(G,S,R)} and the conditional probabilities from the conditional probability tables (CPTs) stated in the diagram, one can evaluate each term in the sums in the numerator and denominator. For example, Pr ( G = T , S = T , R = T ) = Pr ( G = T ∣ S = T , R = T ) Pr ( S = T ∣ R = T ) Pr ( R = T ) = 0.99 × 0.01 × 0.2 = 0.00198. {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}\Pr(G=T,S=T,R=T)&=\Pr(G=T\mid S=T,R=T)\Pr(S=T\mid R=T)\Pr(R=T)\\&=0.99\times 0.01\times 0.2\\&=0.00198.\end{aligned}}} Then the numerical results (subscripted by the associated variable values) are Pr ( R = T ∣ G = T ) = 0.00198 T T T + 0.1584 T F T 0.00198 T T T + 0.288 T T F + 0.1584 T F T + 0.0 T F F = 891 2491 ≈ 35.77 % . {\displaystyle \Pr(R=T\mid G=T)={\frac {0.00198_{TTT}+0.1584_{TFT}}{0.00198_{TTT}+0.288_{TTF}+0.1584_{TFT}+0.0_{TFF}}}={\frac {891}{2491}}\approx 35.77\%.} To answer an interventional question, such as "What is the probability that it would rain, given that we wet the grass?" the answer is governed by the post-intervention joint distribution function Pr ( S , R ∣ do ( G = T ) ) = Pr ( S ∣ R ) Pr ( R ) {\displaystyle \Pr(S,R\mid {\text{do}}(G=T))=\Pr(S\mid R)\Pr(R)} obtained by removing the factor Pr ( G ∣ S , R ) {\displaystyle \Pr(G\mid S,R)} from the pre-intervention distribution. The do operator forces the value of G to be true. The probability of rain is unaffected by the action: Pr ( R ∣ do ( G = T ) ) = Pr ( R ) . {\displaystyle \Pr(R\mid {\text{do}}(G=T))=\Pr(R).} To predict the impact of turning the sprinkler on: Pr ( R , G ∣ do ( S = T ) ) = Pr ( R ) Pr ( G ∣ R , S = T ) {\displaystyle \Pr(R,G\mid {\text{do}}(S=T))=\Pr(R)\Pr(G\mid R,S=T)} with the term Pr ( S = T ∣ R ) {\displaystyle \Pr(S=T\mid R)} removed, showing that the action affects the grass but not the rain. These predictions may not be feasible given unobserved variables, as in most policy evaluation problems. The effect of the action do ( x ) {\displaystyle {\text{do}}(x)} can still be predicted, however, whenever the back-door criterion is satisfied. It states that, if a set Z of nodes can be observed that d-separates (or blocks) all back-door paths from X to Y then Pr ( Y , Z ∣ do ( x ) ) = Pr ( Y , Z , X = x ) Pr ( X = x ∣ Z ) . {\displaystyle \Pr(Y,Z\mid {\text{do}}(x))={\frac {\Pr(Y,Z,X=x)}{\Pr(X=x\mid Z)}}.} A back-door path is one that ends with an arrow into X. Sets that satisfy the back-door criterion are called "sufficient" or "admissible." For example, the set Z = R is admissible for predicting the effect of S = T on G, because R d-separates the (only) back-door path S ← R → G. However, if S is not observed, no other set d-separates this path and the effect of turning the sprinkler on (S = T) on the grass (G) cannot be predicted from passive observations. In that case P(G | do(S = T)) is not "identified". This reflects the fact that, lacking interventional data, the observed dependence between S and G is due to a causal connection or is spurious (apparent dependence arising from a common cause, R). (see Simpson's paradox) To determine whether a causal relation is identified from an arbitrary Bayesian network with unobserved variables, one can use the three rules of "do-calculus" and test whether all do terms can be removed from the expression of that relation, thus confirming that the desired quantity is estimable from frequency data. Using a Bayesian network can save considerable amounts of memory over exhaustive probability tables, if the dependencies in the joint distribution are sparse. For example, a naive way of storing the conditional probabilities of 10 two-valued variables as a table requires storage space for 2 10 = 1024 {\displaystyle 2^{10}=1024} values. If no variable's local distribution depends on more than three parent variables, the Bayesian network representation stores at most 10 ⋅ 2 3 = 80 {\displaystyle 10\cdot 2^{3}=80} values. One advantage of Bayesian networks is that it is intuitively easier for a human to understand (a sparse set of) direct dependencies and local distributions than complete joint distributions. == Inference and learning == Bayesian networks perform three main inference tasks: Inferring unobserved variables Parameter learning for the probability distributions of each node in the network Structure learning of the graphical network === Inferring unobserved variables === Because a Bayesian network is a complete model for its variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. For example, the network can be used to update knowledge of the state of a subset of variables when other variables (the evidence variables) are observed. This process of computing the posterior distribution of variables given evidence is called probabilistic inference. The posterior gives a universal sufficient statistic for detection applications, when choosing values for the variable subset that minimize some expected loss function, for instance the probability of decision error. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to complex problems. The most common exact inference methods are: variable elimination, which eliminates (by integration or summation) the non-observed non-query variables one by one by distributing the sum over the prod