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  • Singularity studies

    Singularity studies

    Singularity studies is an interdisciplinary academic field which examines the idea of technological singularity — the hypothesised point at which artificial intelligence may surpass human intelligence, might be attained by artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and other technologies and sciences, and its social impacts. In this academic field, the study and research are conducted across a broad array of terrains such as information science, robotics, social informatics, economics, philosophy, and ethics. The primary aim of singularity studies is to gain an integrative understanding of the transformation of social systems occurring in tandem with the explosive evolution of AI and also the changes to be effected by such transformation in the view of humans, ethics, and legal systems. == History == An academic work on technological singurality has appeared in computer science, philosophy, sociology, and law since the early 1990s. Early discussions of an intelligence explosion were popularised by science-fiction writer Vernor Vinge in 1993 and later systematised by futurist Ray Kurzweil. Since the 2010s, universities such as Oxford, Stanford, and Keio have established dedicated programmes, while peer-reviewed journals have begun to publish scenario analyses and policy studies. Ongoing debates question the predictive value of singularity scenarios and warn against a deterministic view of technology. == Characteristics of research == Singularity studies extends beyond mere future predictions and offer an intellectual foundation for proactively designing and creating a desirable future. Principal research themes in this realm include: Ethics of AI; Social implications of technologies; Possibility of harmonious coexistence of humans and AI; Communication with AI; and Redesign of social systems. == Technologists and academics == Vernor Vinge: Propounded the concept of singularity in 1993, making a massive impact on the academic and science-fiction spheres. Ray Kurzweil: Predicted the advent around 2045 of the technological singularity in his 2005 book The Singularity Is Near. Nick Bostrom: Offered philosophical reflections on superintelligence and the risks posed by AI. He is the founding director of the now-dissolved Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford. === Japan === Kento Sasano: A social informatician, AI educator, and inventor. He is the president of the Japan Society of Singularity Studies. == Challenges and outlook == Singularity studies is still evolving as an academic field, and quite a few challenges remain unresolved in regard to the systematization of their theories, research methods, and educational curricula. That said, in this day and age of accelerating technological and societal shifts, interdisciplinary approaches have gained in importance and are drawing much attention in the arenas of scholarly research, intercorporate collaboration, and policy planning.

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  • Latent Dirichlet allocation

    Latent Dirichlet allocation

    In natural language processing, latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a generative statistical model that explains how a collection of text documents can be described by a set of unobserved "topics." For example, given a set of news articles, LDA might discover that one topic is characterized by words like "president", "government", and "election", while another is characterized by "team", "game", and "score". It is one of the most common topic models. The LDA model was first presented as a graphical model for population genetics by J. K. Pritchard, M. Stephens and P. Donnelly in 2000. The model was subsequently applied to machine learning by David Blei, Andrew Ng, and Michael I. Jordan in 2003. Although its most frequent application is in modeling text corpora, it has also been used for other problems, such as in clinical psychology, social science, and computational musicology. The core assumption of LDA is that documents are represented as a random mixture of latent topics, and each topic is characterized by a probability distribution over words. The model is a generalization of probabilistic latent semantic analysis (pLSA), differing primarily in that LDA treats the topic mixture as a Dirichlet prior, leading to more reasonable mixtures and less susceptibility to overfitting. Learning the latent topics and their associated probabilities from a corpus is typically done using Bayesian inference, often with methods like Gibbs sampling or variational Bayes. == History == In the context of population genetics, LDA was proposed by J. K. Pritchard, M. Stephens and P. Donnelly in 2000. LDA was applied in machine learning by David Blei, Andrew Ng and Michael I. Jordan in 2003. == Overview == === Population genetics === In population genetics, the model is used to detect the presence of structured genetic variation in a group of individuals. The model assumes that alleles carried by individuals under study have origin in various extant or past populations. The model and various inference algorithms allow scientists to estimate the allele frequencies in those source populations and the origin of alleles carried by individuals under study. The source populations can be interpreted ex-post in terms of various evolutionary scenarios. In association studies, detecting the presence of genetic structure is considered a necessary preliminary step to avoid confounding. === Clinical psychology, mental health, and social science === In clinical psychology research, LDA has been used to identify common themes of self-images experienced by young people in social situations. Other social scientists have used LDA to examine large sets of topical data from discussions on social media (e.g., tweets about prescription drugs). Additionally, supervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation with covariates (SLDAX) has been specifically developed to combine latent topics identified in texts with other manifest variables. This approach allows for the integration of text data as predictors in statistical regression analyses, improving the accuracy of mental health predictions. One of the main advantages of SLDAX over traditional two-stage approaches is its ability to avoid biased estimates and incorrect standard errors, allowing for a more accurate analysis of psychological texts. In the field of social sciences, LDA has proven to be useful for analyzing large datasets, such as social media discussions. For instance, researchers have used LDA to investigate tweets discussing socially relevant topics, like the use of prescription drugs and cultural differences in China. By analyzing these large text corpora, it is possible to uncover patterns and themes that might otherwise go unnoticed, offering valuable insights into public discourse and perception in real time. === Musicology === In the context of computational musicology, LDA has been used to discover tonal structures in different corpora. === Machine learning === One application of LDA in machine learning – specifically, topic discovery, a subproblem in natural language processing – is to discover topics in a collection of documents, and then automatically classify any individual document within the collection in terms of how "relevant" it is to each of the discovered topics. A topic is considered to be a set of terms (i.e., individual words or phrases) that, taken together, suggest a shared theme. For example, in a document collection related to pet animals, the terms dog, spaniel, beagle, golden retriever, puppy, bark, and woof would suggest a DOG_related theme, while the terms cat, siamese, Maine coon, tabby, manx, meow, purr, and kitten would suggest a CAT_related theme. There may be many more topics in the collection – e.g., related to diet, grooming, healthcare, behavior, etc. that we do not discuss for simplicity's sake. (Very common, so called stop words in a language – e.g., "the", "an", "that", "are", "is", etc., – would not discriminate between topics and are usually filtered out by pre-processing before LDA is performed. Pre-processing also converts terms to their "root" lexical forms – e.g., "barks", "barking", and "barked" would be converted to "bark".) If the document collection is sufficiently large, LDA will discover such sets of terms (i.e., topics) based upon the co-occurrence of individual terms, though the task of assigning a meaningful label to an individual topic (i.e., that all the terms are DOG_related) is up to the user, and often requires specialized knowledge (e.g., for collection of technical documents). The LDA approach assumes that: The semantic content of a document is composed by combining one or more terms from one or more topics. Certain terms are ambiguous, belonging to more than one topic, with different probability. (For example, the term training can apply to both dogs and cats, but are more likely to refer to dogs, which are used as work animals or participate in obedience or skill competitions.) However, in a document, the accompanying presence of specific neighboring terms (which belong to only one topic) will disambiguate their usage. Most documents will contain only a relatively small number of topics. In the collection, e.g., individual topics will occur with differing frequencies. That is, they have a probability distribution, so that a given document is more likely to contain some topics than others. Within a topic, certain terms will be used much more frequently than others. In other words, the terms within a topic will also have their own probability distribution. When LDA machine learning is employed, both sets of probabilities are computed during the training phase, using Bayesian methods and an expectation–maximization algorithm. LDA is a generalization of older approach of probabilistic latent semantic analysis (pLSA), The pLSA model is equivalent to LDA under a uniform Dirichlet prior distribution. pLSA relies on only the first two assumptions above and does not care about the remainder. While both methods are similar in principle and require the user to specify the number of topics to be discovered before the start of training (as with k-means clustering) LDA has the following advantages over pLSA: LDA yields better disambiguation of words and a more precise assignment of documents to topics. Computing probabilities allows a "generative" process by which a collection of new "synthetic documents" can be generated that would closely reflect the statistical characteristics of the original collection. Unlike LDA, pLSA is vulnerable to overfitting especially when the size of corpus increases. The LDA algorithm is more readily amenable to scaling up for large data sets using the MapReduce approach on a computing cluster. == Model == With plate notation, which is often used to represent probabilistic graphical models (PGMs), the dependencies among the many variables can be captured concisely. The boxes are "plates" representing replicates, which are repeated entities. The outer plate represents documents, while the inner plate represents the repeated word positions in a given document; each position is associated with a choice of topic and word. The variable names are defined as follows: M denotes the number of documents N is number of words in a given document (document i has N i {\displaystyle N_{i}} words) α is the parameter of the Dirichlet prior on the per-document topic distributions β is the parameter of the Dirichlet prior on the per-topic word distribution θ i {\displaystyle \theta _{i}} is the topic distribution for document i φ k {\displaystyle \varphi _{k}} is the word distribution for topic k z i j {\displaystyle z_{ij}} is the topic for the j-th word in document i w i j {\displaystyle w_{ij}} is the specific word. The fact that W is grayed out means that words w i j {\displaystyle w_{ij}} are the only observable variables, and the other variables are latent variables. As proposed in the original paper, a sparse Dirichlet prior can be used to model the to

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  • Evolutionary attractor

    Evolutionary attractor

    An evolutionary attractor is a point in an evolutionary space where a selection process will always drive trait values towards that point from the region around it. Because of the importance of evolution through natural selection, often such an evolutionary space will be defined by genetic or phenotypic traits, or possibly both. In this case the selection process will be a form of natural selection. The existence of an evolutionary attractor in a biological evolutionary space does not always imply that it can be reached from all points in that evolutionary space, nor does it identify what will happen when the evolutionary attractor is reached. While an evolutionary attractor may represent a point in evolutionary space that is resistant to further selection, such as an evolutionarily stable strategy, other possibilities are available. Because identification of an evolutionary attractor on its own does not describe everything about the evolutionary space in which it lies, this has led to interest in the evolutionary dynamics surrounding evolutionary attractors and in evolutionary spaces in general. (Theoretical biologists and mathematicians working in the area may prefer the terms adaptive dynamics or evolutionary invasion analysis to evolutionary dynamics.) These fields use differential equations which allows a more complete understanding of the dynamics in evolutionary spaces including the existence or otherwise of evolutionary attractors. Advances in the study of molecular evolution have also led to the identification of evolutionary attractors at a molecular level. Because biological evolutionary processes have been studied using evolutionary game theory, a technique inspired by game theory originally derived to address economic problems, not only can evolutionary attractors be found in biology but economists studying evolutionary economic models have also identified evolutionary attractors. Evolution in biology has also inspired evolutionary computation in computer science. Many algorithms in this field use a form of selection inspired by natural selection to generate results through evolutionary algorithms. This is therefore another area in which evolutionary attractors have been identified. == Evolutionary attractors in biology == It is not probably not surprising that biology is the field where most examples of evolutionary attractors have been identified, given the importance of evolution through natural selection. === Evolutionary attractors in adaptive landscapes === An evolutionary attractor is a point in genetic and/or phenotypic trait space, that evolution will always drive trait values towards via a selection process. The concept of an evolutionary attractor arose in population genetics following the origin of the adaptive landscape originally proposed by Sewall Wright in 1932. The height of a point in an adaptive landscape is a measure of evolutionary fitness. If a point in an adaptive landscape is a peak, then selection will always drive traits towards it and it will be an evolutionary attractor. While population genetics deals with discrete genetic traits, quantitative genetics extended such concepts to deal with continuous genetic traits, where the concept of evolutionary attractor is also valid. === Evolutionary attractors in evolutionary game models === Evolutionary game theory introduced into evolutionary biology concepts originally used in economics, with the advantage that evolution could be studied in relation to strategic choices made in animal conflicts. This is of particular interest because of the concept of the evolutionarily stable strategy or ESS, a strategy that once established is resistant to invasion by other strategies. ESSs will not always be evolutionary attractors, but if they are they will persist over evolutionary time. === Dynamics around evolutionary attractors in biology === Evolutionary attractors in biology do not exist in isolation. By definition they must exist in an evolutionary trait space where selection drives all traits towards them from a region immediately around them. That is, they must be convergence stable. Eshel (1983) modified the definition of an ESS by considering individually advantageous reduction from a majority deviation: he created the term continuous stability. A continuously stable ESS can be shown to be convergence stable, therefore it will act as an evolutionary attractor. But the nature of evolutionary trait spaces in biology means that it is not possible to guarantee that the region of convergence to the evolutionary attractor covers the whole of the trait space, nor that there is only one evolutionary attractor in a particular trait space. These issues have led to the emergence of the related fields of evolutionary dynamics, adaptive dynamics and evolutionary invasion analysis, all of which use differential equations to understand the dynamics in evolutionary trait spaces. Hence, if one or more evolutionary attractor exists in an evolutionary trait space, they provide techniques to understand the dynamics in that trait space around the evolutionary attractor. === Evolutionary attractors in an ecological context === Evolution in biology does not take place in single species in isolation. Ecological interaction of species leads to coevolution. Important examples of this are host-parasite or host-pathogen interaction, which can make both the dynamics around evolutionary attractors more complex, and the occurrence and number of evolutionary attractors more diverse. Evolutionary attractors have been identified in the analysis of evolutionary epidemiology of plant pathogens. In the above study working on plant populations the authors were able to identify evolutionary attractors using methods from adaptive dynamics. A model applied to the analysis of a maize (Zea mays L.) virus identified convergence stable equilibria through simulation modelling. A related model identified evolutionary attractors in the interaction of plants with fungal pathogens. === Evolutionary attractors in molecular genetics === As mentioned above much of the consideration of evolutionary attractors in biology has been through investigation of selection at a genetic or phenotypic level or both, in a single species or in coevolving species. Advances in the study of molecular genetics now allow the study of evolutionary attractors to be taken to a molecular genetic level. Wilson et. al (2019) studied the evolution of gene regulatory networks and identified the emergence of evolutionary attractors. == Evolutionary attractors in economics == Evolutionary game theory as applied in biology was inspired by game theory originally devised for applications in economics. Game theory remains an active field of research outside of biology, and thus it is not surprising that researchers in evolutionary economics use evolutionary game theory. Evolutionary attractors have been demonstrated by economists studying the evolutionary dynamics of market entry with market dynamics based on the replicator dynamics of biological evolutionary games. == Evolutionary attractors in computing == Evolutionary computation is a branch of computer science inspired by biological evolution. Many algorithms in evolutionary computation use a form of selection. Thus evolutionary attractors have been identified in computer science as well as in biology and economics. Evolutionary algorithms have generated evolutionary attractors, probably because of the similarity between adaptive hill-climbing in evolutionary heuristics and the adaptive landscape originated to explain evolution through natural selection.

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  • Latent and observable variables

    Latent and observable variables

    In statistics, latent variables (from Latin: present participle of lateo 'lie hidden') are variables that can only be inferred indirectly through a mathematical model from other observable variables that can be directly observed or measured. Such latent variable models are used in many disciplines, including engineering, medicine, ecology, physics, machine learning/artificial intelligence, natural language processing, bioinformatics, chemometrics, demography, economics, management, political science, psychology and the social sciences. Latent variables may correspond to aspects of physical reality. These could in principle be measured, but may not be for practical reasons. Among the earliest expressions of this idea is Francis Bacon's polemic the Novum Organum, itself a challenge to the more traditional logic expressed in Aristotle's Organon: But the latent process of which we speak, is far from being obvious to men’s minds, beset as they now are. For we mean not the measures, symptoms, or degrees of any process which can be exhibited in the bodies themselves, but simply a continued process, which, for the most part, escapes the observation of the senses. In this situation, the term hidden variables is commonly used, reflecting the fact that the variables are meaningful, but not observable. Other latent variables correspond to abstract concepts, like categories, behavioral or mental states, or data structures. The terms hypothetical variables or hypothetical constructs may be used in these situations. The use of latent variables can serve to reduce the dimensionality of data. Many observable variables can be aggregated in a model to represent an underlying concept, making it easier to understand the data. In this sense, they serve a function similar to that of scientific theories. At the same time, latent variables link observable "sub-symbolic" data in the real world to symbolic data in the modeled world. == Examples == === Psychology === Latent variables, as created by factor analytic methods, generally represent "shared" variance, or the degree to which variables "move" together. Variables that have no correlation cannot result in a latent construct based on the common factor model. The "Big Five personality traits" have been inferred using factor analysis. extraversion spatial ability wisdom: “Two of the more predominant means of assessing wisdom include wisdom-related performance and latent variable measures.” Spearman's g, or the general intelligence factor in psychometrics === Economics === Examples of latent variables from the field of economics include quality of life, business confidence, morale, happiness and conservatism: these are all variables which cannot be measured directly. However, by linking these latent variables to other, observable variables, the values of the latent variables can be inferred from measurements of the observable variables. Quality of life is a latent variable which cannot be measured directly, so observable variables are used to infer quality of life. Observable variables to measure quality of life include wealth, employment, environment, physical and mental health, education, recreation and leisure time, and social belonging. === Medicine === Latent-variable methodology is used in many branches of medicine. A class of problems that naturally lend themselves to latent variables approaches are longitudinal studies where the time scale (e.g. age of participant or time since study baseline) is not synchronized with the trait being studied. For such studies, an unobserved time scale that is synchronized with the trait being studied can be modeled as a transformation of the observed time scale using latent variables. Examples of this include disease progression modeling and modeling of growth (see box). == Inferring latent variables == There exists a range of different model classes and methodology that make use of latent variables and allow inference in the presence of latent variables. Models include: linear mixed-effects models and nonlinear mixed-effects models Hidden Markov models Factor analysis Item response theory Analysis and inference methods include: Principal component analysis Instrumented principal component analysis Partial least squares regression Latent semantic analysis and probabilistic latent semantic analysis EM algorithms Metropolis–Hastings algorithm === Bayesian algorithms and methods === Bayesian statistics is often used for inferring latent variables. Latent Dirichlet allocation The Chinese restaurant process is often used to provide a prior distribution over assignments of objects to latent categories. The Indian buffet process is often used to provide a prior distribution over assignments of latent binary features to objects.

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  • Lemmy (social network)

    Lemmy (social network)

    Lemmy is free and open-source, social news aggregation software for running self-hosted discussion forums. These hosts, known as "instances", communicate with each other using the ActivityPub protocol. == History == Lemmy was created by the user Dessalines on GitHub in February 2019 and licensed under the Affero General Public License. In a 2020 post, Lemmy's co-creator Dessalines wrote about the origin of the name Lemmy. "It was nameless for a long time, but I wanted to keep with the fediverse tradition of naming projects after animals. I was playing that old-school game Lemmings, and Lemmy (from Motorhead) had passed away that week, and we held a few polls for names, and I went with that." According to the Fediverse statistics sites the-federation.info and fedidb.com, Lemmy had fewer than 100 instances prior to June 2023, but grew to 455 instances with approximately 48,600 monthly active users as of 22 December 2025, with the largest instances being lemmy.world and lemmy.ml, reporting about 14,144 and 1,982 monthly active users, respectively. == Description == Lemmy is made up of a network of individual installations of the Lemmy software that can intercommunicate. This departs from the centralized, monolithic structure of other social media platforms. It has been described as a federated alternative to Reddit. Users on individual instances submit posts with links, text, or pictures to user-created forums for discussion called "communities". Discussion is in the form of threaded comments. Posts and comments can be upvoted or downvoted though the ability to downvote can be disabled by the admins of each instance. Communities are local to each instance, however users may subscribe to communities, create posts and leave comments across instances. Moderation is conducted by the administrators of each instance and moderators of specific communities. Community names begin with c/ in the URL (e.g lemmy.ml/c/simpleliving) and are mentionable using the !community@instance format. On each instance, a front page presents the user with popular posts from several communities. These posts can then be filtered according to origin: posts from the instance the user is on, or from all federated instances. It can also be made to only show posts from communities the user has subscribed to. Lemmy instances are generally supported by donations. == Relations with other social networks == ActivityPub is the protocol used to allow Lemmy instances to operate as a federated social network. It allows users to interact with compatible platforms such as Kbin and Mastodon. In June 2023, following the announcement of Reddit API service changes intended to reduce the use of third-party Reddit clients, community members discussed relocating to Lemmy and other Reddit competitors. Reddit banned a user for promoting switching to Lemmy along with the r/LemmyMigration subreddit as a whole, leading to a Streisand effect after it garnered attention on sites like Hacker News. The ban was reversed a day later. == Third-party software == Prominent third-party Reddit clients Sync and Boost which had shut down due to changes to the pricing of Reddit's API began working on Lemmy clients, with them later relaunching as Sync for Lemmy and Boost for Lemmy. Multiple other apps and browser clients have also been developed.

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  • Vanishing gradient problem

    Vanishing gradient problem

    In machine learning, the vanishing gradient problem is the problem of greatly diverging gradient magnitudes between earlier and later layers encountered when training neural networks with backpropagation. In such methods, neural network weights are updated proportional to their partial derivative of the loss function. As the number of forward propagation steps in a network increases, for instance due to greater network depth, the gradients of earlier weights are calculated with increasingly many multiplications. These multiplications shrink the gradient magnitude. Consequently, the gradients of earlier weights will be exponentially smaller than the gradients of later weights. This difference in gradient magnitude might introduce instability in the training process, slow it, or halt it entirely. For instance, consider the hyperbolic tangent activation function. The gradients of this function are in range [0,1]. The product of repeated multiplication with such gradients decreases exponentially. The inverse problem, when weight gradients at earlier layers get exponentially larger, is called the exploding gradient problem. Backpropagation allowed researchers to train supervised deep artificial neural networks from scratch, initially with little success. Hochreiter's diplom thesis of 1991 formally identified the reason for this failure in the "vanishing gradient problem", which not only affects many-layered feedforward networks, but also recurrent networks. The latter are trained by unfolding them into very deep feedforward networks, where a new layer is created for each time-step of an input sequence processed by the network (the combination of unfolding and backpropagation is termed backpropagation through time). == Prototypical models == This section is based on the paper On the difficulty of training Recurrent Neural Networks by Pascanu, Mikolov, and Bengio. === Recurrent network model === A generic recurrent network has hidden states h 1 , h 2 , … {\displaystyle h_{1},h_{2},\dots } , inputs u 1 , u 2 , … {\displaystyle u_{1},u_{2},\dots } , and outputs x 1 , x 2 , … {\displaystyle x_{1},x_{2},\dots } . Let it be parameterized by θ {\displaystyle \theta } , so that the system evolves as ( h t , x t ) = F ( h t − 1 , u t , θ ) {\displaystyle (h_{t},x_{t})=F(h_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )} Often, the output x t {\displaystyle x_{t}} is a function of h t {\displaystyle h_{t}} , as some x t = G ( h t ) {\displaystyle x_{t}=G(h_{t})} . The vanishing gradient problem already presents itself clearly when x t = h t {\displaystyle x_{t}=h_{t}} , so we simplify our notation to the special case with: x t = F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) {\displaystyle x_{t}=F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )} Now, take its differential: d x t = ∇ θ F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) d θ + ∇ x F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) d x t − 1 = ∇ θ F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) d θ + ∇ x F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) [ ∇ θ F ( x t − 2 , u t − 1 , θ ) d θ + ∇ x F ( x t − 2 , u t − 1 , θ ) d x t − 2 ] ⋮ = [ ∇ θ F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) + ∇ x F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) ∇ θ F ( x t − 2 , u t − 1 , θ ) + ⋯ ] d θ {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}dx_{t}&=\nabla _{\theta }F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )d\theta +\nabla _{x}F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )dx_{t-1}\\&=\nabla _{\theta }F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )d\theta +\nabla _{x}F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )\left[\nabla _{\theta }F(x_{t-2},u_{t-1},\theta )d\theta +\nabla _{x}F(x_{t-2},u_{t-1},\theta )dx_{t-2}\right]\\&\;\;\vdots \\&=\left[\nabla _{\theta }F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )+\nabla _{x}F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )\nabla _{\theta }F(x_{t-2},u_{t-1},\theta )+\cdots \right]d\theta \end{aligned}}} Training the network requires us to define a loss function to be minimized. Let it be L ( x T , u 1 , … , u T ) {\displaystyle L(x_{T},u_{1},\dots ,u_{T})} , then minimizing it by gradient descent gives Δ θ = − η ⋅ [ ∇ x L ( x T ) ( ∇ θ F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) + ∇ x F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) ∇ θ F ( x t − 2 , u t − 1 , θ ) + ⋯ ) ] T {\displaystyle \Delta \theta =-\eta \cdot \left[\nabla _{x}L(x_{T})\left(\nabla _{\theta }F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )+\nabla _{x}F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )\nabla _{\theta }F(x_{t-2},u_{t-1},\theta )+\cdots \right)\right]^{T}} where η {\displaystyle \eta } is the learning rate. The vanishing/exploding gradient problem appears because there are repeated multiplications, of the form ∇ x F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) ∇ x F ( x t − 2 , u t − 1 , θ ) ∇ x F ( x t − 3 , u t − 2 , θ ) ⋯ {\displaystyle \nabla _{x}F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )\nabla _{x}F(x_{t-2},u_{t-1},\theta )\nabla _{x}F(x_{t-3},u_{t-2},\theta )\cdots } ==== Example: recurrent network with sigmoid activation ==== For a concrete example, consider a typical recurrent network defined by x t = F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) = W rec σ ( x t − 1 ) + W in u t + b {\displaystyle x_{t}=F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )=W_{\text{rec}}\sigma (x_{t-1})+W_{\text{in}}u_{t}+b} where θ = ( W rec , W in ) {\displaystyle \theta =(W_{\text{rec}},W_{\text{in}})} is the network parameter, σ {\displaystyle \sigma } is the sigmoid activation function, applied to each vector coordinate separately, and b {\displaystyle b} is the bias vector. Then, ∇ x F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) = W rec diag ⁡ ( σ ′ ( x t − 1 ) ) {\displaystyle \nabla _{x}F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )=W_{\text{rec}}\operatorname {diag} (\sigma '(x_{t-1}))} , and so ∇ x F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) ∇ x F ( x t − 2 , u t − 1 , θ ) ⋯ ∇ x F ( x t − k , u t − k + 1 , θ ) = W rec diag ⁡ ( σ ′ ( x t − 1 ) ) W rec diag ⁡ ( σ ′ ( x t − 2 ) ) ⋯ W rec diag ⁡ ( σ ′ ( x t − k ) ) {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}&\nabla _{x}F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )\nabla _{x}F(x_{t-2},u_{t-1},\theta )\cdots \nabla _{x}F(x_{t-k},u_{t-k+1},\theta )\\&=W_{\text{rec}}\operatorname {diag} (\sigma '(x_{t-1}))W_{\text{rec}}\operatorname {diag} (\sigma '(x_{t-2}))\cdots W_{\text{rec}}\operatorname {diag} (\sigma '(x_{t-k}))\end{aligned}}} Since | σ ′ | ≤ 1 {\displaystyle \left|\sigma '\right|\leq 1} , the operator norm of the above multiplication is bounded above by ‖ W rec ‖ k {\displaystyle \left\|W_{\text{rec}}\right\|^{k}} . So if the spectral radius of W rec {\displaystyle W_{\text{rec}}} is γ < 1 {\displaystyle \gamma <1} , then at large k {\displaystyle k} , the above multiplication has operator norm bounded above by γ k → 0 {\displaystyle \gamma ^{k}\to 0} . This is the prototypical vanishing gradient problem. The effect of a vanishing gradient is that the network cannot learn long-range effects. Recall Equation (loss differential): ∇ θ L = ∇ x L ( x T , u 1 , … , u T ) [ ∇ θ F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) + ∇ x F ( x t − 1 , u t , θ ) ∇ θ F ( x t − 2 , u t − 1 , θ ) + ⋯ ] {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }L=\nabla _{x}L(x_{T},u_{1},\dots ,u_{T})\left[\nabla _{\theta }F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )+\nabla _{x}F(x_{t-1},u_{t},\theta )\nabla _{\theta }F(x_{t-2},u_{t-1},\theta )+\cdots \right]} The components of ∇ θ F ( x , u , θ ) {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }F(x,u,\theta )} are just components of σ ( x ) {\displaystyle \sigma (x)} and u {\displaystyle u} , so if u t , u t − 1 , … {\displaystyle u_{t},u_{t-1},\dots } are bounded, then ‖ ∇ θ F ( x t − k − 1 , u t − k , θ ) ‖ {\displaystyle \left\|\nabla _{\theta }F(x_{t-k-1},u_{t-k},\theta )\right\|} is also bounded by some M > 0 {\displaystyle M>0} , and so the terms in ∇ θ L {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }L} decay as M γ k {\displaystyle M\gamma ^{k}} . This means that, effectively, ∇ θ L {\displaystyle \nabla _{\theta }L} is affected only by the first O ( γ − 1 ) {\displaystyle O(\gamma ^{-1})} terms in the sum. If γ ≥ 1 {\displaystyle \gamma \geq 1} , the above analysis does not quite work. For the prototypical exploding gradient problem, the next model is clearer. === Dynamical systems model === Following (Doya, 1993), consider this one-neuron recurrent network with sigmoid activation: x t + 1 = ( 1 − ε ) x t + ε σ ( w x t + b ) + ε w ′ u t {\displaystyle x_{t+1}=(1-\varepsilon )x_{t}+\varepsilon \sigma (wx_{t}+b)+\varepsilon w'u_{t}} At the small ε {\displaystyle \varepsilon } limit, the dynamics of the network becomes d x d t = − x ( t ) + σ ( w x ( t ) + b ) + w ′ u ( t ) {\displaystyle {\frac {dx}{dt}}=-x(t)+\sigma (wx(t)+b)+w'u(t)} Consider first the autonomous case, with u = 0 {\displaystyle u=0} . Set w = 5.0 {\displaystyle w=5.0} , and vary b {\displaystyle b} in [ − 3 , − 2 ] {\displaystyle [-3,-2]} . As b {\displaystyle b} decreases, the system has 1 stable point, then has 2 stable points and 1 unstable point, and finally has 1 stable point again. Explicitly, the stable points are ( x , b ) = ( x , ln ⁡ ( x 1 − x ) − 5 x ) {\displaystyle (x,b)=\left(x,\ln \left({\frac {x}{1-x}}\right)-5x\right)} . Now consider Δ x ( T ) Δ x ( 0 ) {\displaystyle {\frac {\Delta x(T)}{\Delta x(0)}}} and Δ x ( T ) Δ b {\displaystyle {\frac {\Delta x(T)}{\Delta b}}} , where T {\displaystyle T} is large enough that the system has settled into one of the stable points. If ( x ( 0 ) , b ) {\displaystyle (x(0),b)} puts the system very close to an unstable point, then a tiny variation in x ( 0 ) {\displaystyle x(0)} or b {\displaystyle b} wo

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  • Q-learning

    Q-learning

    Q-learning is a reinforcement learning algorithm that trains an agent to assign values to its possible actions based on its current state, without requiring a model of the environment (model-free). It can handle problems with stochastic transitions and rewards without requiring adaptations. For example, in a grid maze, an agent learns to reach an exit worth 10 points. At a junction, Q-learning might assign a higher value to moving right than left if right gets to the exit faster, improving this choice by trying both directions over time. For any finite Markov decision process, Q-learning finds an optimal policy in the sense of maximizing the expected value of the total reward over any and all successive steps, starting from the current state. Q-learning can identify an optimal action-selection policy for any given finite Markov decision process, given infinite exploration time and a partly random policy. "Q" refers to the function that the algorithm computes: the expected reward—that is, the quality—of an action taken in a given state. == Reinforcement learning == Reinforcement learning involves an agent, a set of states S {\displaystyle {\mathcal {S}}} , and a set A {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A}}} of actions per state. By performing an action a ∈ A {\displaystyle a\in {\mathcal {A}}} , the agent transitions from state to state. Executing an action in a specific state provides the agent with a reward (a numerical score). The goal of the agent is to maximize its total reward. It does this by adding the maximum reward attainable from future states to the reward for achieving its current state, effectively influencing the current action by the potential future reward. This potential reward is a weighted sum of expected values of the rewards of all future steps starting from the current state. As an example, consider the process of boarding a train, in which the reward is measured by the negative of the total time spent boarding (alternatively, the cost of boarding the train is equal to the boarding time). One strategy is to enter the train door as soon as they open, minimizing the initial wait time for yourself. If the train is crowded, however, then you will have a slow entry after the initial action of entering the door as people are fighting you to depart the train as you attempt to board. The total boarding time, or cost, is then: 0 seconds wait time + 15 seconds fight time On the next day, by random chance (exploration), you decide to wait and let other people depart first. This initially results in a longer wait time. However, less time is spent fighting the departing passengers. Overall, this path has a higher reward than that of the previous day, since the total boarding time is now: 5 second wait time + 0 second fight time Through exploration, despite the initial (patient) action resulting in a larger cost (or negative reward) than in the forceful strategy, the overall cost is lower, thus revealing a more rewarding strategy. == Algorithm == After Δ t {\displaystyle \Delta t} steps into the future the agent will decide some next step. The weight for this step is calculated as γ Δ t {\displaystyle \gamma ^{\Delta t}} , where γ {\displaystyle \gamma } (the discount factor) is a number between 0 and 1 ( 0 ≤ γ ≤ 1 {\displaystyle 0\leq \gamma \leq 1} ). Assuming γ < 1 {\displaystyle \gamma <1} , it has the effect of valuing rewards received earlier higher than those received later (reflecting the value of a "good start"). γ {\displaystyle \gamma } may also be interpreted as the probability to succeed (or survive) at every step Δ t {\displaystyle \Delta t} . The algorithm, therefore, has a function that calculates the quality of a state–action combination: Q : S × A → R {\displaystyle Q:{\mathcal {S}}\times {\mathcal {A}}\to \mathbb {R} } . Before learning begins, ⁠ Q {\displaystyle Q} ⁠ is initialized to a possibly arbitrary fixed value (chosen by the programmer). Then, at each time t {\displaystyle t} the agent selects an action A t {\displaystyle A_{t}} , observes a reward R t + 1 {\displaystyle R_{t+1}} , enters a new state S t + 1 {\displaystyle S_{t+1}} (that may depend on both the previous state S t {\displaystyle S_{t}} and the selected action), and Q {\displaystyle Q} is updated. The core of the algorithm is a Bellman equation as a simple value iteration update, using the weighted average of the current value and the new information: Q n e w ( S t , A t ) ← ( 1 − α ⏟ learning rate ) ⋅ Q ( S t , A t ) ⏟ current value + α ⏟ learning rate ⋅ ( R t + 1 ⏟ reward + γ ⏟ discount factor ⋅ max a Q ( S t + 1 , a ) ⏟ estimate of optimal future value ⏟ new value (temporal difference target) ) {\displaystyle Q^{new}(S_{t},A_{t})\leftarrow (1-\underbrace {\alpha } _{\text{learning rate}})\cdot \underbrace {Q(S_{t},A_{t})} _{\text{current value}}+\underbrace {\alpha } _{\text{learning rate}}\cdot {\bigg (}\underbrace {\underbrace {R_{t+1}} _{\text{reward}}+\underbrace {\gamma } _{\text{discount factor}}\cdot \underbrace {\max _{a}Q(S_{t+1},a)} _{\text{estimate of optimal future value}}} _{\text{new value (temporal difference target)}}{\bigg )}} where R t + 1 {\displaystyle R_{t+1}} is the reward received when moving from the state S t {\displaystyle S_{t}} to the state S t + 1 {\displaystyle S_{t+1}} , and α {\displaystyle \alpha } is the learning rate ( 0 < α ≤ 1 ) {\displaystyle (0<\alpha \leq 1)} . Note that Q n e w ( S t , A t ) {\displaystyle Q^{new}(S_{t},A_{t})} is the sum of three terms: ( 1 − α ) Q ( S t , A t ) {\displaystyle (1-\alpha )Q(S_{t},A_{t})} : the current value (weighted by one minus the learning rate) α R t + 1 {\displaystyle \alpha \,R_{t+1}} : the reward R t + 1 {\displaystyle R_{t+1}} to obtain if action A t {\displaystyle A_{t}} is taken when in state S t {\displaystyle S_{t}} (weighted by learning rate) α γ max a Q ( S t + 1 , a ) {\displaystyle \alpha \gamma \max _{a}Q(S_{t+1},a)} : the maximum reward that can be obtained from state S t + 1 {\displaystyle S_{t+1}} (weighted by learning rate and discount factor) An episode of the algorithm ends when state S t + 1 {\displaystyle S_{t+1}} is a final or terminal state. However, Q-learning can also learn in non-episodic tasks (as a result of the property of convergent infinite series). If the discount factor is lower than 1, the action values are finite even if the problem can contain infinite loops or paths. For all final states s f {\displaystyle s_{f}} , Q ( s f , a ) {\displaystyle Q(s_{f},a)} is never updated, but is set to the reward value r {\displaystyle r} observed for state s f {\displaystyle s_{f}} . In most cases, Q ( s f , a ) {\displaystyle Q(s_{f},a)} can be taken to equal zero. == Influence of variables == === Learning rate === The learning rate or step size determines to what extent newly acquired information overrides old information. A factor of 0 makes the agent learn nothing (exclusively exploiting prior knowledge), while a factor of 1 makes the agent consider only the most recent information (ignoring prior knowledge to explore possibilities). In fully deterministic environments, a learning rate of α t = 1 {\displaystyle \alpha _{t}=1} is optimal. When the problem is stochastic, the algorithm converges under some technical conditions on the learning rate that require it to decrease to zero. In practice, often a constant learning rate is used, such as α t = 0.1 {\displaystyle \alpha _{t}=0.1} for all t {\displaystyle t} . === Discount factor === The discount factor ⁠ γ {\displaystyle \gamma } ⁠ determines the importance of future rewards. A factor of 0 will make the agent "myopic" (or short-sighted) by only considering current rewards, i.e. r t {\displaystyle r_{t}} (in the update rule above), while a factor approaching 1 will make it strive for a long-term high reward. If the discount factor meets or exceeds 1, the action values may diverge. For ⁠ γ = 1 {\displaystyle \gamma =1} ⁠, without a terminal state, or if the agent never reaches one, all environment histories become infinitely long, and utilities with additive, undiscounted rewards generally become infinite. Even with a discount factor only slightly lower than 1, Q-function learning leads to propagation of errors and instabilities when the value function is approximated with an artificial neural network. In that case, starting with a lower discount factor and increasing it towards its final value accelerates learning. === Initial conditions (Q0) === Since Q-learning is an iterative algorithm, it implicitly assumes an initial condition before the first update occurs. High initial values, also known as "optimistic initial conditions", can encourage exploration: no matter what action is selected, the update rule will cause it to have lower values than the other alternative, thus increasing their choice probability. The first reward r {\displaystyle r} can be used to reset the initial conditions. According to this idea, the first time an action is taken the reward is used to set the value

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  • Aleph (ILP)

    Aleph (ILP)

    Aleph (A Learning Engine for Proposing Hypotheses) is an inductive logic programming system introduced by Ashwin Srinivasan in 2001. As of 2022 it is still one of the most widely used inductive logic programming systems. It is based on the earlier system Progol. == Learning task == The input to Aleph is background knowledge, specified as a logic program, a language bias in the form of mode declarations, as well as positive and negative examples specified as ground facts. As output it returns a logic program which, together with the background knowledge, entails all of the positive examples and none of the negative examples. == Basic algorithm == Starting with an empty hypothesis, Aleph proceeds as follows: It chooses a positive example to generalise; if none are left, it aborts and outputs the current hypothesis. Then it constructs the bottom clause, that is, the most specific clause that is allowed by the mode declarations and covers the example. It then searches for a generalisation of the bottom clause that scores better on the chosen metric. It then adds the new clause to the hypothesis program and removes all examples that are covered by the new clause. == Search algorithm == Aleph searches for clauses in a top-down manner, using the bottom clause constructed in the preceding step to bound the search from below. It searches the refinement graph in a breadth-first manner, with tunable parameters to bound the maximal clause size and proof depth. It scores each clause using one of 13 different evaluation metrics, as chosen in advance by the user.

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  • Shape analysis (digital geometry)

    Shape analysis (digital geometry)

    This article describes shape analysis to analyze and process geometric shapes. == Description == Shape analysis is the (mostly) automatic analysis of geometric shapes, for example using a computer to detect similarly shaped objects in a database or parts that fit together. For a computer to automatically analyze and process geometric shapes, the objects have to be represented in a digital form. Most commonly a boundary representation is used to describe the object with its boundary (usually the outer shell, see also 3D model). However, other volume based representations (e.g. constructive solid geometry) or point based representations (point clouds) can be used to represent shape. Once the objects are given, either by modeling (computer-aided design), by scanning (3D scanner) or by extracting shape from 2D or 3D images, they have to be simplified before a comparison can be achieved. The simplified representation is often called a shape descriptor (or fingerprint, signature). These simplified representations try to carry most of the important information, while being easier to handle, to store and to compare than the shapes directly. A complete shape descriptor is a representation that can be used to completely reconstruct the original object (for example the medial axis transform). == Application fields == Shape analysis is used in many application fields: archeology for example, to find similar objects or missing parts architecture for example, to identify objects that spatially fit into a specific space medical imaging to understand shape changes related to illness or aid surgical planning virtual environments or on the 3D model market to identify objects for copyright purposes security applications such as face recognition entertainment industry (movies, games) to construct and process geometric models or animations computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing to process and to compare designs of mechanical parts or design objects. == Shape descriptors == Shape descriptors can be classified by their invariance with respect to the transformations allowed in the associated shape definition. Many descriptors are invariant with respect to congruency, meaning that congruent shapes (shapes that could be translated, rotated and mirrored) will have the same descriptor (for example moment or spherical harmonic based descriptors or Procrustes analysis operating on point clouds). Another class of shape descriptors (called intrinsic shape descriptors) is invariant with respect to isometry. These descriptors do not change with different isometric embeddings of the shape. Their advantage is that they can be applied nicely to deformable objects (e.g. a person in different body postures) as these deformations do not involve much stretching but are in fact near-isometric. Such descriptors are commonly based on geodesic distances measures along the surface of an object or on other isometry invariant characteristics such as the Laplace–Beltrami spectrum (see also spectral shape analysis). There are other shape descriptors, such as graph-based descriptors like the medial axis or the Reeb graph that capture geometric and/or topological information and simplify the shape representation but can not be as easily compared as descriptors that represent shape as a vector of numbers. From this discussion it becomes clear, that different shape descriptors target different aspects of shape and can be used for a specific application. Therefore, depending on the application, it is necessary to analyze how well a descriptor captures the features of interest.

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  • Multinomial logistic regression

    Multinomial logistic regression

    In statistics, multinomial logistic regression is a classification method that generalizes logistic regression to multiclass problems, i.e. with more than two possible discrete outcomes. That is, it is a model that is used to predict the probabilities of the different possible outcomes of a categorically distributed dependent variable, given a set of independent variables (which may be real-valued, binary-valued, categorical-valued, etc.). Multinomial logistic regression is known by a variety of other names, including polytomous LR, multiclass LR, softmax regression, multinomial logit (mlogit), the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) classifier, and the conditional maximum entropy model. == Background == Multinomial logistic regression is used when the dependent variable in question is nominal (equivalently categorical, meaning that it falls into any one of a set of categories that cannot be ordered in any meaningful way) and for which there are more than two categories. Some examples would be: Which major will a college student choose, given their grades, stated likes and dislikes, etc.? Which blood type does a person have, given the results of various diagnostic tests? In a hands-free mobile phone dialing application, which person's name was spoken, given various properties of the speech signal? Which candidate will a person vote for, given particular demographic characteristics? Which country will a firm locate an office in, given the characteristics of the firm and of the various candidate countries? These are all statistical classification problems. They all have in common a dependent variable to be predicted that comes from one of a limited set of items that cannot be meaningfully ordered, as well as a set of independent variables (also known as features, explanators, etc.), which are used to predict the dependent variable. Multinomial logistic regression is a particular solution to classification problems that use a linear combination of the observed features and some problem-specific parameters to estimate the probability of each particular value of the dependent variable. The best values of the parameters for a given problem are usually determined from some training data (e.g. some people for whom both the diagnostic test results and blood types are known, or some examples of known words being spoken). == Assumptions == The multinomial logistic model assumes that data are case-specific; that is, each independent variable has a single value for each case. As with other types of regression, there is no need for the independent variables to be statistically independent from each other (unlike, for example, in a naive Bayes classifier); however, collinearity is assumed to be relatively low, as it becomes difficult to differentiate between the impact of several variables if this is not the case. If the multinomial logit is used to model choices, it relies on the assumption of independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA), which is not always desirable. This assumption states that the odds of preferring one class over another do not depend on the presence or absence of other "irrelevant" alternatives. For example, the relative probabilities of taking a car or bus to work do not change if a bicycle is added as an additional possibility. This allows the choice of K alternatives to be modeled as a set of K − 1 independent binary choices, in which one alternative is chosen as a "pivot" and the other K − 1 compared against it, one at a time. The IIA hypothesis is a core hypothesis in rational choice theory; however numerous studies in psychology show that individuals often violate this assumption when making choices. An example of a problem case arises if choices include a car and a blue bus. Suppose the odds ratio between the two is 1 : 1. Now if the option of a red bus is introduced, a person may be indifferent between a red and a blue bus, and hence may exhibit a car : blue bus : red bus odds ratio of 1 : 0.5 : 0.5, thus maintaining a 1 : 1 ratio of car : any bus while adopting a changed car : blue bus ratio of 1 : 0.5. Here the red bus option was not in fact irrelevant, because a red bus was a perfect substitute for a blue bus. If the multinomial logit is used to model choices, it may in some situations impose too much constraint on the relative preferences between the different alternatives. It is especially important to take into account if the analysis aims to predict how choices would change if one alternative were to disappear (for instance if one political candidate withdraws from a three candidate race). Other models like the nested logit or the multinomial probit may be used in such cases as they allow for violation of the IIA. == Model == === Introduction === There are multiple equivalent ways to describe the mathematical model underlying multinomial logistic regression. This can make it difficult to compare different treatments of the subject in different texts. The article on logistic regression presents a number of equivalent formulations of simple logistic regression, and many of these have analogues in the multinomial logit model. The idea behind all of them, as in many other statistical classification techniques, is to construct a linear predictor function that constructs a score from a set of weights that are linearly combined with the explanatory variables (features) of a given observation using a dot product: score ⁡ ( X i , k ) = β k ⋅ X i , {\displaystyle \operatorname {score} (\mathbf {X} _{i},k)={\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{k}\cdot \mathbf {X} _{i},} where Xi is the vector of explanatory variables describing observation i, βk is a vector of weights (or regression coefficients) corresponding to outcome k, and score(Xi, k) is the score associated with assigning observation i to category k. In discrete choice theory, where observations represent people and outcomes represent choices, the score is considered the utility associated with person i choosing outcome k. The predicted outcome is the one with the highest score. The difference between the multinomial logit model and numerous other methods, models, algorithms, etc. with the same basic setup (the perceptron algorithm, support vector machines, linear discriminant analysis, etc.) is the procedure for determining (training) the optimal weights/coefficients and the way that the score is interpreted. In particular, in the multinomial logit model, the score can directly be converted to a probability value, indicating the probability of observation i choosing outcome k given the measured characteristics of the observation. This provides a principled way of incorporating the prediction of a particular multinomial logit model into a larger procedure that may involve multiple such predictions, each with a possibility of error. Without such means of combining predictions, errors tend to multiply. For example, imagine a large predictive model that is broken down into a series of submodels where the prediction of a given submodel is used as the input of another submodel, and that prediction is in turn used as the input into a third submodel, etc. If each submodel has 90% accuracy in its predictions, and there are five submodels in series, then the overall model has only 0.95 = 59% accuracy. If each submodel has 80% accuracy, then overall accuracy drops to 0.85 = 33% accuracy. This issue is known as error propagation and is a serious problem in real-world predictive models, which are usually composed of numerous parts. Predicting probabilities of each possible outcome, rather than simply making a single optimal prediction, is one means of alleviating this issue. === Setup === The basic setup is the same as in logistic regression, the only difference being that the dependent variables are categorical rather than binary, i.e. there are K possible outcomes rather than just two. The following description is somewhat shortened; for more details, consult the logistic regression article. ==== Data points ==== Specifically, it is assumed that we have a series of N observed data points. Each data point i (ranging from 1 to N) consists of a set of M explanatory variables x1,i ... xM,i (also known as independent variables, predictor variables, features, etc.), and an associated categorical outcome Yi (also known as dependent variable, response variable), which can take on one of K possible values. These possible values represent logically separate categories (e.g. different political parties, blood types, etc.), and are often described mathematically by arbitrarily assigning each a number from 1 to K. The explanatory variables and outcome represent observed properties of the data points, and are often thought of as originating in the observations of N "experiments" — although an "experiment" may consist of nothing more than gathering data. The goal of multinomial logistic regression is to construct a model that explains the relationship between the explanatory variables and the outcome, so tha

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  • Radial basis function network

    Radial basis function network

    In the field of mathematical modeling, a radial basis function network is an artificial neural network that uses radial basis functions as activation functions. The output of the network is a linear combination of radial basis functions of the inputs and neuron parameters. Radial basis function networks have many uses, including function approximation, time series prediction, classification, and system control. They were first formulated in a 1988 paper by Broomhead and Lowe, both researchers at the Royal Signals and Radar Establishment. == Network architecture == Radial basis function (RBF) networks typically have three layers: an input layer, a hidden layer with a non-linear RBF activation function and a linear output layer. The input can be modeled as a vector of real numbers x ∈ R n {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} \in \mathbb {R} ^{n}} . The output of the network is then a scalar function of the input vector, φ : R n → R {\displaystyle \varphi :\mathbb {R} ^{n}\to \mathbb {R} } , and is given by φ ( x ) = ∑ i = 1 N a i ρ ( | | x − c i | | ) {\displaystyle \varphi (\mathbf {x} )=\sum _{i=1}^{N}a_{i}\rho (||\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}||)} where N {\displaystyle N} is the number of neurons in the hidden layer, c i {\displaystyle \mathbf {c} _{i}} is the center vector for neuron i {\displaystyle i} , and a i {\displaystyle a_{i}} is the weight of neuron i {\displaystyle i} in the linear output neuron. Functions that depend only on the distance from a center vector are radially symmetric about that vector, hence the name radial basis function. In the basic form, all inputs are connected to each hidden neuron. The norm is typically taken to be the Euclidean distance (although the Mahalanobis distance appears to perform better with pattern recognition) and the radial basis function is commonly taken to be Gaussian ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) = exp ⁡ [ − β i ‖ x − c i ‖ 2 ] {\displaystyle \rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}=\exp \left[-\beta _{i}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert ^{2}\right]} . The Gaussian basis functions are local to the center vector in the sense that lim | | x | | → ∞ ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) = 0 {\displaystyle \lim _{||x||\to \infty }\rho (\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert )=0} i.e. changing parameters of one neuron has only a small effect for input values that are far away from the center of that neuron. Given certain mild conditions on the shape of the activation function, RBF networks are universal approximators on a compact subset of R n {\displaystyle \mathbb {R} ^{n}} . This means that an RBF network with enough hidden neurons can approximate any continuous function on a closed, bounded set with arbitrary precision. The parameters a i {\displaystyle a_{i}} , c i {\displaystyle \mathbf {c} _{i}} , and β i {\displaystyle \beta _{i}} are determined in a manner that optimizes the fit between φ {\displaystyle \varphi } and the data. === Normalization === ==== Normalized architecture ==== In addition to the above unnormalized architecture, RBF networks can be normalized. In this case the mapping is φ ( x ) = d e f ∑ i = 1 N a i ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) ∑ i = 1 N ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) = ∑ i = 1 N a i u ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) {\displaystyle \varphi (\mathbf {x} )\ {\stackrel {\mathrm {def} }{=}}\ {\frac {\sum _{i=1}^{N}a_{i}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}}{\sum _{i=1}^{N}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}}}=\sum _{i=1}^{N}a_{i}u{\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}} where u ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) = d e f ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) ∑ j = 1 N ρ ( ‖ x − c j ‖ ) {\displaystyle u{\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}\ {\stackrel {\mathrm {def} }{=}}\ {\frac {\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}}{\sum _{j=1}^{N}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{j}\right\Vert {\big )}}}} is known as a normalized radial basis function. ==== Theoretical motivation for normalization ==== There is theoretical justification for this architecture in the case of stochastic data flow. Assume a stochastic kernel approximation for the joint probability density P ( x ∧ y ) = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) σ ( | y − e i | ) {\displaystyle P\left(\mathbf {x} \land y\right)={1 \over N}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\,\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}\,\sigma {\big (}\left\vert y-e_{i}\right\vert {\big )}} where the weights c i {\displaystyle \mathbf {c} _{i}} and e i {\displaystyle e_{i}} are exemplars from the data and we require the kernels to be normalized ∫ ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) d n x = 1 {\displaystyle \int \rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}\,d^{n}\mathbf {x} =1} and ∫ σ ( | y − e i | ) d y = 1 {\displaystyle \int \sigma {\big (}\left\vert y-e_{i}\right\vert {\big )}\,dy=1} . The probability densities in the input and output spaces are P ( x ) = ∫ P ( x ∧ y ) d y = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) {\displaystyle P\left(\mathbf {x} \right)=\int P\left(\mathbf {x} \land y\right)\,dy={1 \over N}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\,\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}} and The expectation of y given an input x {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} } is φ ( x ) = d e f E ( y ∣ x ) = ∫ y P ( y ∣ x ) d y {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)\ {\stackrel {\mathrm {def} }{=}}\ E\left(y\mid \mathbf {x} \right)=\int y\,P\left(y\mid \mathbf {x} \right)dy} where P ( y ∣ x ) {\displaystyle P\left(y\mid \mathbf {x} \right)} is the conditional probability of y given x {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} } . The conditional probability is related to the joint probability through Bayes' theorem P ( y ∣ x ) = P ( x ∧ y ) P ( x ) {\displaystyle P\left(y\mid \mathbf {x} \right)={\frac {P\left(\mathbf {x} \land y\right)}{P\left(\mathbf {x} \right)}}} which yields φ ( x ) = ∫ y P ( x ∧ y ) P ( x ) d y {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)=\int y\,{\frac {P\left(\mathbf {x} \land y\right)}{P\left(\mathbf {x} \right)}}\,dy} . This becomes φ ( x ) = ∑ i = 1 N e i ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) ∑ i = 1 N ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) = ∑ i = 1 N e i u ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)={\frac {\sum _{i=1}^{N}e_{i}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}}{\sum _{i=1}^{N}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}}}=\sum _{i=1}^{N}e_{i}u{\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}} when the integrations are performed. === Local linear models === It is sometimes convenient to expand the architecture to include local linear models. In that case the architectures become, to first order, φ ( x ) = ∑ i = 1 N ( a i + b i ⋅ ( x − c i ) ) ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)=\sum _{i=1}^{N}\left(a_{i}+\mathbf {b} _{i}\cdot \left(\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right)\right)\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}} and φ ( x ) = ∑ i = 1 N ( a i + b i ⋅ ( x − c i ) ) u ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)=\sum _{i=1}^{N}\left(a_{i}+\mathbf {b} _{i}\cdot \left(\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right)\right)u{\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )}} in the unnormalized and normalized cases, respectively. Here b i {\displaystyle \mathbf {b} _{i}} are weights to be determined. Higher order linear terms are also possible. This result can be written φ ( x ) = ∑ i = 1 2 N ∑ j = 1 n e i j v i j ( x − c i ) {\displaystyle \varphi \left(\mathbf {x} \right)=\sum _{i=1}^{2N}\sum _{j=1}^{n}e_{ij}v_{ij}{\big (}\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}{\big )}} where e i j = { a i , if i ∈ [ 1 , N ] b i j , if i ∈ [ N + 1 , 2 N ] {\displaystyle e_{ij}={\begin{cases}a_{i},&{\mbox{if }}i\in [1,N]\\b_{ij},&{\mbox{if }}i\in [N+1,2N]\end{cases}}} and v i j ( x − c i ) = d e f { δ i j ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) , if i ∈ [ 1 , N ] ( x i j − c i j ) ρ ( ‖ x − c i ‖ ) , if i ∈ [ N + 1 , 2 N ] {\displaystyle v_{ij}{\big (}\mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}{\big )}\ {\stackrel {\mathrm {def} }{=}}\ {\begin{cases}\delta _{ij}\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )},&{\mbox{if }}i\in [1,N]\\\left(x_{ij}-c_{ij}\right)\rho {\big (}\left\Vert \mathbf {x} -\mathbf {c} _{i}\right\Vert {\big )},&{\mbox{if }}i\in [N+1,2N]\end{cases}}} in the unnormalized case and in the normalized case. Here δ i j {\displaystyle \delta _{ij}} is a Kronecker delta function defined as δ i j = { 1 , if i = j 0 , if i ≠ j {\displaystyle \delta _{ij}={\begin{cases}1,&{\mbox{if }}i=j\\0,&{\mbox{if }}i\neq j\end{cases}}} . == Training == RBF networks are typically trained from pairs of input and target values x ( t ) , y ( t ) {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} (t),y(t)} , t = 1 , … , T {\displaystyle t=1,\dots ,T} by a two-step algorithm. In the first step, the center vectors c i {\displaystyle \mathbf {c} _{i}} of the RBF functions in the hidden layer

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  • Extremal Ensemble Learning

    Extremal Ensemble Learning

    Extremal Ensemble Learning (EEL) is a machine learning algorithmic paradigm for graph partitioning. EEL creates an ensemble of partitions and then uses information contained in the ensemble to find new and improved partitions. The ensemble evolves and learns how to form improved partitions through extremal updating procedure. The final solution is found by achieving consensus among its member partitions about what the optimal partition is. == Reduced-Network Extremal Ensemble Learning (RenEEL) == A particular implementation of the EEL paradigm is the Reduced-Network Extremal Ensemble Learning (RenEEL) scheme for partitioning a graph. RenEEL uses consensus across many partitions in an ensemble to create a reduced network that can be efficiently analyzed to find more accurate partitions. These better quality partitions are subsequently used to update the ensemble. An algorithm that utilizes the RenEEL scheme is currently the best algorithm for finding the graph partition with maximum modularity, which is an NP-hard problem.

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  • MyPertamina

    MyPertamina

    MyPertamina is a digital financial service platform from Pertamina that integrated with the apps LinkAja. This application is used for non-cash fuel oil payments at Pertamina's public fueling stations. == History == Originally, MyPertamina were merchandise outlets of Pertamina products. It was launched on December 21, 2016, with 3 outlets in Jakarta. MyPertamina sells clothes, hats, and other products with Pertamina products brands. One month later (January 2017), Pertamina and Bank Mandiri entered into a partnership to launch the Mandiri Credit Card Pertamina Mastercard product, so that consumers can make payments when users fill up fuel at Pertamina gas stations. In August 2017, MyPertamina app and electronic card were launched through MyPertamina Loyalty program at Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show 2017. The card can be used on EDC machines for non-cash payments. Initial balances are in its own app, that can be top up by ATMs and online banking.

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  • Modes of variation

    Modes of variation

    In statistics, modes of variation are a continuously indexed set of vectors or functions that are centered at a mean and are used to depict the variation in a population or sample. Typically, variation patterns in the data can be decomposed in descending order of eigenvalues with the directions represented by the corresponding eigenvectors or eigenfunctions. Modes of variation provide a visualization of this decomposition and an efficient description of variation around the mean. Both in principal component analysis (PCA) and in functional principal component analysis (FPCA), modes of variation play an important role in visualizing and describing the variation in the data contributed by each eigencomponent. In real-world applications, the eigencomponents and associated modes of variation aid to interpret complex data, especially in exploratory data analysis (EDA). == Formulation == Modes of variation are a natural extension of PCA and FPCA. === Modes of variation in PCA === If a random vector X = ( X 1 , X 2 , ⋯ , X p ) T {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} =(X_{1},X_{2},\cdots ,X_{p})^{T}} has the mean vector μ p {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {\mu }}_{p}} , and the covariance matrix Σ p × p {\displaystyle \mathbf {\Sigma } _{p\times p}} with eigenvalues λ 1 ≥ λ 2 ≥ ⋯ ≥ λ p ≥ 0 {\displaystyle \lambda _{1}\geq \lambda _{2}\geq \cdots \geq \lambda _{p}\geq 0} and corresponding orthonormal eigenvectors e 1 , e 2 , ⋯ , e p {\displaystyle \mathbf {e} _{1},\mathbf {e} _{2},\cdots ,\mathbf {e} _{p}} , by eigendecomposition of a real symmetric matrix, the covariance matrix Σ {\displaystyle \mathbf {\Sigma } } can be decomposed as Σ = Q Λ Q T , {\displaystyle \mathbf {\Sigma } =\mathbf {Q} \mathbf {\Lambda } \mathbf {Q} ^{T},} where Q {\displaystyle \mathbf {Q} } is an orthogonal matrix whose columns are the eigenvectors of Σ {\displaystyle \mathbf {\Sigma } } , and Λ {\displaystyle \mathbf {\Lambda } } is a diagonal matrix whose entries are the eigenvalues of Σ {\displaystyle \mathbf {\Sigma } } . By the Karhunen–Loève expansion for random vectors, one can express the centered random vector in the eigenbasis X − μ = ∑ k = 1 p ξ k e k , {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} -{\boldsymbol {\mu }}=\sum _{k=1}^{p}\xi _{k}\mathbf {e} _{k},} where ξ k = e k T ( X − μ ) {\displaystyle \xi _{k}=\mathbf {e} _{k}^{T}(\mathbf {X} -{\boldsymbol {\mu }})} is the principal component associated with the k {\displaystyle k} -th eigenvector e k {\displaystyle \mathbf {e} _{k}} , with the properties E ⁡ ( ξ k ) = 0 , Var ⁡ ( ξ k ) = λ k , {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} (\xi _{k})=0,\operatorname {Var} (\xi _{k})=\lambda _{k},} and E ⁡ ( ξ k ξ l ) = 0 for l ≠ k . {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} (\xi _{k}\xi _{l})=0\ {\text{for}}\ l\neq k.} Then the k {\displaystyle k} -th mode of variation of X {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} } is the set of vectors, indexed by α {\displaystyle \alpha } , m k , α = μ ± α λ k e k , α ∈ [ − A , A ] , {\displaystyle \mathbf {m} _{k,\alpha }={\boldsymbol {\mu }}\pm \alpha {\sqrt {\lambda _{k}}}\mathbf {e} _{k},\alpha \in [-A,A],} where A {\displaystyle A} is typically selected as 2 or 3 {\displaystyle 2\ {\text{or}}\ 3} . === Modes of variation in FPCA === For a square-integrable random function X ( t ) , t ∈ T ⊂ R p {\displaystyle X(t),t\in {\mathcal {T}}\subset R^{p}} , where typically p = 1 {\displaystyle p=1} and T {\displaystyle {\mathcal {T}}} is an interval, denote the mean function by μ ( t ) = E ⁡ ( X ( t ) ) {\displaystyle \mu (t)=\operatorname {E} (X(t))} , and the covariance function by G ( s , t ) = Cov ⁡ ( X ( s ) , X ( t ) ) = ∑ k = 1 ∞ λ k φ k ( s ) φ k ( t ) , {\displaystyle G(s,t)=\operatorname {Cov} (X(s),X(t))=\sum _{k=1}^{\infty }\lambda _{k}\varphi _{k}(s)\varphi _{k}(t),} where λ 1 ≥ λ 2 ≥ ⋯ ≥ 0 {\displaystyle \lambda _{1}\geq \lambda _{2}\geq \cdots \geq 0} are the eigenvalues and { φ 1 , φ 2 , ⋯ } {\displaystyle \{\varphi _{1},\varphi _{2},\cdots \}} are the orthonormal eigenfunctions of the linear Hilbert–Schmidt operator G : L 2 ( T ) → L 2 ( T ) , G ( f ) = ∫ T G ( s , t ) f ( s ) d s . {\displaystyle G:L^{2}({\mathcal {T}})\rightarrow L^{2}({\mathcal {T}}),\,G(f)=\int _{\mathcal {T}}G(s,t)f(s)ds.} By the Karhunen–Loève theorem, one can express the centered function in the eigenbasis, X ( t ) − μ ( t ) = ∑ k = 1 ∞ ξ k φ k ( t ) , {\displaystyle X(t)-\mu (t)=\sum _{k=1}^{\infty }\xi _{k}\varphi _{k}(t),} where ξ k = ∫ T ( X ( t ) − μ ( t ) ) φ k ( t ) d t {\displaystyle \xi _{k}=\int _{\mathcal {T}}(X(t)-\mu (t))\varphi _{k}(t)dt} is the k {\displaystyle k} -th principal component with the properties E ⁡ ( ξ k ) = 0 , Var ⁡ ( ξ k ) = λ k , {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} (\xi _{k})=0,\operatorname {Var} (\xi _{k})=\lambda _{k},} and E ⁡ ( ξ k ξ l ) = 0 for l ≠ k . {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} (\xi _{k}\xi _{l})=0{\text{ for }}l\neq k.} Then the k {\displaystyle k} -th mode of variation of X ( t ) {\displaystyle X(t)} is the set of functions, indexed by α {\displaystyle \alpha } , m k , α ( t ) = μ ( t ) ± α λ k φ k ( t ) , t ∈ T , α ∈ [ − A , A ] {\displaystyle m_{k,\alpha }(t)=\mu (t)\pm \alpha {\sqrt {\lambda _{k}}}\varphi _{k}(t),\ t\in {\mathcal {T}},\ \alpha \in [-A,A]} that are viewed simultaneously over the range of α {\displaystyle \alpha } , usually for A = 2 or 3 {\displaystyle A=2\ {\text{or}}\ 3} . == Estimation == The formulation above is derived from properties of the population. Estimation is needed in real-world applications. The key idea is to estimate mean and covariance. === Modes of variation in PCA === Suppose the data x 1 , x 2 , ⋯ , x n {\displaystyle \mathbf {x} _{1},\mathbf {x} _{2},\cdots ,\mathbf {x} _{n}} represent n {\displaystyle n} independent drawings from some p {\displaystyle p} -dimensional population X {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} } with mean vector μ {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {\mu }}} and covariance matrix Σ {\displaystyle \mathbf {\Sigma } } . These data yield the sample mean vector x ¯ {\displaystyle {\overline {\mathbf {x} }}} , and the sample covariance matrix S {\displaystyle \mathbf {S} } with eigenvalue-eigenvector pairs ( λ ^ 1 , e ^ 1 ) , ( λ ^ 2 , e ^ 2 ) , ⋯ , ( λ ^ p , e ^ p ) {\displaystyle ({\hat {\lambda }}_{1},{\hat {\mathbf {e} }}_{1}),({\hat {\lambda }}_{2},{\hat {\mathbf {e} }}_{2}),\cdots ,({\hat {\lambda }}_{p},{\hat {\mathbf {e} }}_{p})} . Then the k {\displaystyle k} -th mode of variation of X {\displaystyle \mathbf {X} } can be estimated by m ^ k , α = x ¯ ± α λ ^ k e ^ k , α ∈ [ − A , A ] . {\displaystyle {\hat {\mathbf {m} }}_{k,\alpha }={\overline {\mathbf {x} }}\pm \alpha {\sqrt {{\hat {\lambda }}_{k}}}{\hat {\mathbf {e} }}_{k},\alpha \in [-A,A].} === Modes of variation in FPCA === Consider n {\displaystyle n} realizations X 1 ( t ) , X 2 ( t ) , ⋯ , X n ( t ) {\displaystyle X_{1}(t),X_{2}(t),\cdots ,X_{n}(t)} of a square-integrable random function X ( t ) , t ∈ T {\displaystyle X(t),t\in {\mathcal {T}}} with the mean function μ ( t ) = E ⁡ ( X ( t ) ) {\displaystyle \mu (t)=\operatorname {E} (X(t))} and the covariance function G ( s , t ) = Cov ⁡ ( X ( s ) , X ( t ) ) {\displaystyle G(s,t)=\operatorname {Cov} (X(s),X(t))} . Functional principal component analysis provides methods for the estimation of μ ( t ) {\displaystyle \mu (t)} and G ( s , t ) {\displaystyle G(s,t)} in detail, often involving point wise estimate and interpolation. Substituting estimates for the unknown quantities, the k {\displaystyle k} -th mode of variation of X ( t ) {\displaystyle X(t)} can be estimated by m ^ k , α ( t ) = μ ^ ( t ) ± α λ ^ k φ ^ k ( t ) , t ∈ T , α ∈ [ − A , A ] . {\displaystyle {\hat {m}}_{k,\alpha }(t)={\hat {\mu }}(t)\pm \alpha {\sqrt {{\hat {\lambda }}_{k}}}{\hat {\varphi }}_{k}(t),t\in {\mathcal {T}},\alpha \in [-A,A].} == Applications == Modes of variation are useful to visualize and describe the variation patterns in the data sorted by the eigenvalues. In real-world applications, modes of variation associated with eigencomponents allow to interpret complex data, such as the evolution of function traits and other infinite-dimensional data. To illustrate how modes of variation work in practice, two examples are shown in the graphs to the right, which display the first two modes of variation. The solid curve represents the sample mean function. The dashed, dot-dashed, and dotted curves correspond to modes of variation with α = ± 1 , ± 2 , {\displaystyle \alpha =\pm 1,\pm 2,} and ± 3 {\displaystyle \pm 3} , respectively. The first graph displays the first two modes of variation of female mortality data from 41 countries in 2003. The object of interest is log hazard function between ages 0 and 100 years. The first mode of variation suggests that the variation of female mortality is smaller for ages around 0 or 100, and larger for ages around 25. An appropriate and intuitive interpretation is that mortality around 25 is driven by accidental death, while around 0 or 100, mortality is related to congenital disease or natural death. Compared to female mortality

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  • Mating pool

    Mating pool

    Mating pool is a concept used in evolutionary algorithms and means a population of parents for the next population. The mating pool is formed by candidate solutions that the selection operators deem to have the highest fitness in the current population. Solutions that are included in the mating pool are referred to as parents. Individual solutions can be repeatedly included in the mating pool, with individuals of higher fitness values having a higher chance of being included multiple times. Crossover operators are then applied to the parents, resulting in recombination of genes recognized as superior. Lastly, random changes in the genes are introduced through mutation operators, increasing the genetic variation in the gene pool. Those two operators improve the chance of creating new, superior solutions. A new generation of solutions is thereby created, the children, who will constitute the next population. Depending on the selection method, the total number of parents in the mating pool can be different to the size of the initial population, resulting in a new population that’s smaller. To continue the algorithm with an equally sized population, random individuals from the old populations can be chosen and added to the new population. At this point, the fitness value of the new solutions is evaluated. If the termination conditions are fulfilled, processes come to an end. Otherwise, they are repeated. The repetition of the steps result in candidate solutions that evolve towards the most optimal solution over time. The genes will become increasingly uniform towards the most optimal gene, a process called convergence. If 95% of the population share the same version of a gene, the gene has converged. When all the individual fitness values have reached the value of the best individual, i.e. all the genes have converged, population convergence is achieved. == Mating pool creation == Several methods can be applied to create a mating pool. All of these processes involve the selective breeding of a particular number of individuals within a population. There are multiple criteria that can be employed to determine which individuals make it into the mating pool and which are left behind. The selection methods can be split into three general types: fitness proportionate selection, ordinal based selection and threshold based selection. === Fitness proportionate selection === In the case of fitness proportionate selection, random individuals are selected to enter the pool. However, the ones with a higher level of fitness are more likely to be picked and therefore have a greater chance of passing on their features to the next generation. One of the techniques used in this type of parental selection is the roulette wheel selection. This approach divides a hypothetical circular wheel into different slots, the size of which is equal to the fitness values of each potential candidate. Afterwards, the wheel is rotated and a fixed point determines which individual gets picked. The greater the fitness value of an individual, the higher the probability of being chosen as a parent by the random spin of the wheel. Alternatively, stochastic universal sampling can be implemented. This selection method is also based on the rotation of a spinning wheel. However, in this case there is more than one fixed point and as a result all of the mating pool members will be selected simultaneously. === Ordinal based selection === The ordinal based selection methods include the tournament and ranking selection. Tournament selection involves the random selection of individuals of a population and the subsequent comparison of their fitness levels. The winners of these “tournaments” are the ones with the highest values and will be put into the mating pool as parents. In ranking selection all the individuals are sorted based on their fitness values. Then, the selection of the parents is made according to the rank of the candidates. Every individual has a chance of being chosen, but higher ranked ones are favored === Threshold based selection === The last type of selection method is referred to as the threshold based method. This includes the truncation selection method, which sorts individuals based on their phenotypic values on a specific trait and later selects the proportion of them that are within a certain threshold as parents.

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