SMBGhost (or SMBleedingGhost or CoronaBlue) is a type of security vulnerability, with wormlike features, that affects Windows 10 computers and was first reported publicly on 10 March 2020. == Security vulnerability == A proof of concept (PoC) exploit code was published 1 June 2020 on GitHub by a security researcher. The code could possibly spread to millions of unpatched computers, resulting in as much as tens of billions of dollars in losses. Microsoft recommends all users of Windows 10 versions 1903 and 1909 and Windows Server versions 1903 and 1909 to install patches, and states, "We recommend customers install updates as soon as possible as publicly disclosed vulnerabilities have the potential to be leveraged by bad actors ... An update for this vulnerability was released in March [2020], and customers who have installed the updates, or have automatic updates enabled, are already protected." Workarounds, according to Microsoft, such as disabling SMB compression and blocking port 445, may help but may not be sufficient. According to the advisory division of Homeland Security, "Malicious cyber actors are targeting unpatched systems with the new [threat], ... [and] strongly recommends using a firewall to block server message block ports from the internet and to apply patches to critical- and high-severity vulnerabilities as soon as possible."
Admissible heuristic
In computer science, specifically in algorithms related to pathfinding, a heuristic function is said to be admissible if it never overestimates the cost of reaching the goal, i.e. the cost it estimates to reach the goal is not higher than the lowest possible cost from the current point in the path. In other words, it should act as a lower bound. It is related to the concept of consistent heuristics. While all consistent heuristics are admissible, not all admissible heuristics are consistent. == Search algorithms == An admissible heuristic is used to estimate the cost of reaching the goal state in an informed search algorithm. In order for a heuristic to be admissible to the search problem, the estimated cost must always be lower than or equal to the actual cost of reaching the goal state. The search algorithm uses the admissible heuristic to find an estimated optimal path to the goal state from the current node. For example, in A search the evaluation function (where n {\displaystyle n} is the current node) is: f ( n ) = g ( n ) + h ( n ) {\displaystyle f(n)=g(n)+h(n)} where f ( n ) {\displaystyle f(n)} = the evaluation function. g ( n ) {\displaystyle g(n)} = the cost from the start node to the current node h ( n ) {\displaystyle h(n)} = estimated cost from current node to goal. h ( n ) {\displaystyle h(n)} is calculated using the heuristic function. With a non-admissible heuristic, the A algorithm could overlook the optimal solution to a search problem due to an overestimation in f ( n ) {\displaystyle f(n)} . == Formulation == n {\displaystyle n} is a node h {\displaystyle h} is a heuristic h ( n ) {\displaystyle h(n)} is cost indicated by h {\displaystyle h} to reach a goal from n {\displaystyle n} h ∗ ( n ) {\displaystyle h^{}(n)} is the optimal cost to reach a goal from n {\displaystyle n} h ( n ) {\displaystyle h(n)} is admissible if, ∀ n {\displaystyle \forall n} h ( n ) ≤ h ∗ ( n ) {\displaystyle h(n)\leq h^{}(n)} == Construction == An admissible heuristic can be derived from a relaxed version of the problem, or by information from pattern databases that store exact solutions to subproblems of the problem, or by using inductive learning methods. == Examples == Two different examples of admissible heuristics apply to the fifteen puzzle problem: Hamming distance Manhattan distance The Hamming distance is the total number of misplaced tiles. It is clear that this heuristic is admissible since the total number of moves to order the tiles correctly is at least the number of misplaced tiles (each tile not in place must be moved at least once). The cost (number of moves) to the goal (an ordered puzzle) is at least the Hamming distance of the puzzle. The Manhattan distance of a puzzle is defined as: h ( n ) = ∑ all tiles d i s t a n c e ( tile, correct position ) {\displaystyle h(n)=\sum _{\text{all tiles}}{\mathit {distance}}({\text{tile, correct position}})} Consider the puzzle below in which the player wishes to move each tile such that the numbers are ordered. The Manhattan distance is an admissible heuristic in this case because every tile will have to be moved at least the number of spots in between itself and its correct position. The subscripts show the Manhattan distance for each tile. The total Manhattan distance for the shown puzzle is: h ( n ) = 3 + 1 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 1 + 1 = 36 {\displaystyle h(n)=3+1+0+1+2+3+3+4+3+2+4+4+4+1+1=36} == Optimality proof == If an admissible heuristic is used in an algorithm that, per iteration, progresses only the path of lowest evaluation (current cost + heuristic) of several candidate paths, terminates the moment its exploration reaches the goal and, crucially, closes all optimal paths before terminating (something that's possible with A search algorithm if special care isn't taken), then this algorithm can only terminate on an optimal path. To see why, consider the following proof by contradiction: Assume such an algorithm managed to terminate on a path T with a true cost Ttrue greater than the optimal path S with true cost Strue. This means that before terminating, the evaluated cost of T was less than or equal to the evaluated cost of S (or else S would have been picked). Denote these evaluated costs Teval and Seval respectively. The above can be summarized as follows, Strue < Ttrue Teval ≤ Seval If our heuristic is admissible it follows that at this penultimate step Teval = Ttrue because any increase on the true cost by the heuristic on T would be inadmissible and the heuristic cannot be negative. On the other hand, an admissible heuristic would require that Seval ≤ Strue which combined with the above inequalities gives us Teval < Ttrue and more specifically Teval ≠ Ttrue. As Teval and Ttrue cannot be both equal and unequal our assumption must have been false and so it must be impossible to terminate on a more costly than optimal path. As an example, let us say we have costs as follows:(the cost above/below a node is the heuristic, the cost at an edge is the actual cost) 0 10 0 100 0 START ---- O ----- GOAL | | 0| |100 | | O ------- O ------ O 100 1 100 1 100 So clearly we would start off visiting the top middle node, since the expected total cost, i.e. f ( n ) {\displaystyle f(n)} , is 10 + 0 = 10 {\displaystyle 10+0=10} . Then the goal would be a candidate, with f ( n ) {\displaystyle f(n)} equal to 10 + 100 + 0 = 110 {\displaystyle 10+100+0=110} . Then we would clearly pick the bottom nodes one after the other, followed by the updated goal, since they all have f ( n ) {\displaystyle f(n)} lower than the f ( n ) {\displaystyle f(n)} of the current goal, i.e. their f ( n ) {\displaystyle f(n)} is 100 , 101 , 102 , 102 {\displaystyle 100,101,102,102} . So even though the goal was a candidate, we could not pick it because there were still better paths out there. This way, an admissible heuristic can ensure optimality. However, note that although an admissible heuristic can guarantee final optimality, it is not necessarily efficient.
Prototype methods
Prototype methods are machine learning methods that use data prototypes. A data prototype is a data value that reflects other values in its class, e.g., the centroid in a K-means clustering problem. == Methods == The following are some prototype methods K-means clustering Learning vector quantization (LVQ) Gaussian mixtures == Related Methods == While K-nearest neighbor's does not use prototypes, it is similar to prototype methods like K-means clustering.
Mutation (evolutionary algorithm)
Mutation is a genetic operator used to maintain genetic diversity of the chromosomes of a population of an evolutionary algorithm (EA), including genetic algorithms in particular. It is analogous to biological mutation. The classic example of a mutation operator of a binary coded genetic algorithm (GA) involves a probability that an arbitrary bit in a genetic sequence will be flipped from its original state. A common method of implementing the mutation operator involves generating a random variable for each bit in a sequence. This random variable tells whether or not a particular bit will be flipped. This mutation procedure, based on the biological point mutation, is called single point mutation. Other types of mutation operators are commonly used for representations other than binary, such as floating-point encodings or representations for combinatorial problems. The purpose of mutation in EAs is to introduce diversity into the sampled population. Mutation operators are used in an attempt to avoid local minima by preventing the population of chromosomes from becoming too similar to each other, thus slowing or even stopping convergence to the global optimum. This reasoning also leads most EAs to avoid only taking the fittest of the population in generating the next generation, but rather selecting a random (or semi-random) set with a weighting toward those that are fitter. The following requirements apply to all mutation operators used in an EA: every point in the search space must be reachable by one or more mutations. there must be no preference for parts or directions in the search space (no drift). small mutations should be more probable than large ones. For different genome types, different mutation types are suitable. Some mutations are Gaussian, Uniform, Zigzag, Scramble, Insertion, Inversion, Swap, and so on. An overview and more operators than those presented below can be found in the introductory book by Eiben and Smith or in. == Bit string mutation == The mutation of bit strings ensue through bit flips at random positions. Example: The probability of a mutation of a bit is 1 l {\displaystyle {\frac {1}{l}}} , where l {\displaystyle l} is the length of the binary vector. Thus, a mutation rate of 1 {\displaystyle 1} per mutation and individual selected for mutation is reached. == Mutation of real numbers == Many EAs, such as the evolution strategy or the real-coded genetic algorithms, work with real numbers instead of bit strings. This is due to the good experiences that have been made with this type of coding. The value of a real-valued gene can either be changed or redetermined. A mutation that implements the latter should only ever be used in conjunction with the value-changing mutations and then only with comparatively low probability, as it can lead to large changes. In practical applications, the respective value range of the decision variables to be changed of the optimisation problem to be solved is usually limited. Accordingly, the values of the associated genes are each restricted to an interval [ x min , x max ] {\displaystyle [x_{\min },x_{\max }]} . Mutations may or may not take these restrictions into account. In the latter case, suitable post-treatment is then required as described below. === Mutation without consideration of restrictions === A real number x {\displaystyle x} can be mutated using normal distribution N ( 0 , σ ) {\displaystyle {\mathcal {N}}(0,\sigma )} by adding the generated random value to the old value of the gene, resulting in the mutated value x ′ {\displaystyle x'} : x ′ = x + N ( 0 , σ ) {\displaystyle x'=x+{\mathcal {N}}(0,\sigma )} In the case of genes with a restricted range of values, it is a good idea to choose the step size of the mutation σ {\displaystyle \sigma } so that it reasonably fits the range [ x min , x max ] {\displaystyle [x_{\min },x_{\max }]} of the gene to be changed, e.g.: σ = x max − x min 6 {\displaystyle \sigma ={\frac {x_{\text{max}}-x_{\text{min}}}{6}}} The step size can also be adjusted to the smaller permissible change range depending on the current value. In any case, however, it is likely that the new value x ′ {\displaystyle x'} of the gene will be outside the permissible range of values. Such a case must be considered a lethal mutation, since the obvious repair by using the respective violated limit as the new value of the gene would lead to a drift. This is because the limit value would then be selected with the entire probability of the values beyond the limit of the value range. The evolution strategy works with real numbers and mutation based on normal distribution. The step sizes are part of the chromosome and are subject to evolution together with the actual decision variables. === Mutation with consideration of restrictions === One possible form of changing the value of a gene while taking its value range [ x min , x max ] {\displaystyle [x_{\min },x_{\max }]} into account is the mutation relative parameter change of the evolutionary algorithm GLEAM (General Learning Evolutionary Algorithm and Method), in which, as with the mutation presented earlier, small changes are more likely than large ones. First, an equally distributed decision is made as to whether the current value x {\displaystyle x} should be increased or decreased and then the corresponding total change interval is determined. Without loss of generality, an increase is assumed for the explanation and the total change interval is then [ x , x max ] {\displaystyle [x,x_{\max }]} . It is divided into k {\displaystyle k} sub-areas of equal size with the width δ {\displaystyle \delta } , from which k {\displaystyle k} sub-change intervals of different size are formed: i {\displaystyle i} -th sub-change interval: [ x , x + δ ⋅ i ] {\displaystyle [x,x+\delta \cdot i]} with δ = ( x max − x ) k {\displaystyle \delta ={\frac {(x_{\text{max}}-x)}{k}}} and i = 1 , … , k {\displaystyle i=1,\dots ,k} Subsequently, one of the k {\displaystyle k} sub-change intervals is selected in equal distribution and a random number, also equally distributed, is drawn from it as the new value x ′ {\displaystyle x'} of the gene. The resulting summed probabilities of the sub-change intervals result in the probability distribution of the k {\displaystyle k} sub-areas shown in the adjacent figure for the exemplary case of k = 10 {\displaystyle k=10} . This is not a normal distribution as before, but this distribution also clearly favours small changes over larger ones. This mutation for larger values of k {\displaystyle k} , such as 10, is less well suited for tasks where the optimum lies on one of the value range boundaries. This can be remedied by significantly reducing k {\displaystyle k} when a gene value approaches its limits very closely. === Common properties === For both mutation operators for real-valued numbers, the probability of an increase and decrease is independent of the current value and is 50% in each case. In addition, small changes are considerably more likely than large ones. For mixed-integer optimization problems, rounding is usually used. == Mutation of permutations == Mutations of permutations are specially designed for genomes that are themselves permutations of a set. These are often used to solve combinatorial tasks. In the two mutations presented, parts of the genome are rotated or inverted. === Rotation to the right === The presentation of the procedure is illustrated by an example on the right: === Inversion === The presentation of the procedure is illustrated by an example on the right: === Variants with preference for smaller changes === The requirement raised at the beginning for mutations, according to which small changes should be more probable than large ones, is only inadequately fulfilled by the two permutation mutations presented, since the lengths of the partial lists and the number of shift positions are determined in an equally distributed manner. However, the longer the partial list and the shift, the greater the change in gene order. This can be remedied by the following modifications. The end index j {\displaystyle j} of the partial lists is determined as the distance d {\displaystyle d} to the start index i {\displaystyle i} : j = ( i + d ) mod | P 0 | {\displaystyle j=(i+d){\bmod {\left|P_{0}\right|}}} where d {\displaystyle d} is determined randomly according to one of the two procedures for the mutation of real numbers from the interval [ 0 , | P 0 | − 1 ] {\displaystyle \left[0,\left|P_{0}\right|-1\right]} and rounded. For the rotation, k {\displaystyle k} is determined similarly to the distance d {\displaystyle d} , but the value 0 {\displaystyle 0} is forbidden. For the inversion, note that i ≠ j {\displaystyle i\neq j} must hold, so for d {\displaystyle d} the value 0 {\displaystyle 0} must be excluded.
Multi-label classification
In machine learning, multi-label classification or multi-output classification is a variant of the classification problem where multiple nonexclusive labels may be assigned to each instance. Multi-label classification is a generalization of multiclass classification, which is the single-label problem of categorizing instances into precisely one of several (greater than or equal to two) classes. In the multi-label problem the labels are nonexclusive and there is no constraint on how many of the classes the instance can be assigned to. The formulation of multi-label learning was first introduced by Shen et al. in the context of Semantic Scene Classification, and later gained popularity across various areas of machine learning. Formally, multi-label classification is the problem of finding a model that maps inputs x to binary vectors y; that is, it assigns a value of 0 or 1 for each element (label) in y. == Problem transformation methods == Several problem transformation methods exist for multi-label classification, and can be roughly broken down into: === Transformation into binary classification problems === The baseline approach, called the binary relevance method, amounts to independently training one binary classifier for each label. Given an unseen sample, the combined model then predicts all labels for this sample for which the respective classifiers predict a positive result. Although this method of dividing the task into multiple binary tasks may resemble superficially the one-vs.-all (OvA) and one-vs.-rest (OvR) methods for multiclass classification, it is essentially different from both, because a single classifier under binary relevance deals with a single label, without any regard to other labels whatsoever. A classifier chain is an alternative method for transforming a multi-label classification problem into several binary classification problems. It differs from binary relevance in that labels are predicted sequentially, and the output of all previous classifiers (i.e. positive or negative for a particular label) are input as features to subsequent classifiers. Classifier chains have been applied, for instance, in HIV drug resistance prediction. Bayesian network has also been applied to optimally order classifiers in Classifier chains. In case of transforming the problem to multiple binary classifications, the likelihood function reads L = ∏ i = 1 n ( ∏ k ( ∏ j k ( p k , j k ( x i ) δ y i , k , j k ) ) ) {\displaystyle L=\prod _{i=1}^{n}(\prod _{k}(\prod _{j_{k}}(p_{k,j_{k}}(x_{i})^{\delta _{y_{i,k},j_{k}}})))} where index i {\displaystyle i} runs over the samples, index k {\displaystyle k} runs over the labels, j k {\displaystyle j_{k}} indicates the binary outcomes 0 or 1, δ a , b {\displaystyle \delta _{a,b}} indicates the Kronecker delta, y i , k ∈ 0 , 1 {\displaystyle y_{i,k}\in {0,1}} indicates the multiple hot encoded labels of sample i {\displaystyle i} . === Transformation into multi-class classification problem === The label powerset (LP) transformation creates one binary classifier for every label combination present in the training set. For example, if possible labels for an example were A, B, and C, the label powerset representation of this problem is a multi-class classification problem with the classes [0 0 0], [1 0 0], [0 1 0], [0 0 1], [1 1 0], [1 0 1], [0 1 1], and [1 1 1] where for example [1 0 1] denotes an example where labels A and C are present and label B is absent. === Ensemble methods === A set of multi-class classifiers can be used to create a multi-label ensemble classifier. For a given example, each classifier outputs a single class (corresponding to a single label in the multi-label problem). These predictions are then combined by an ensemble method, usually a voting scheme where every class that receives a requisite percentage of votes from individual classifiers (often referred to as the discrimination threshold) is predicted as a present label in the multi-label output. However, more complex ensemble methods exist, such as committee machines. Another variation is the random k-labelsets (RAKEL) algorithm, which uses multiple LP classifiers, each trained on a random subset of the actual labels; label prediction is then carried out by a voting scheme. A set of multi-label classifiers can be used in a similar way to create a multi-label ensemble classifier. In this case, each classifier votes once for each label it predicts rather than for a single label. == Adapted algorithms == Some classification algorithms/models have been adapted to the multi-label task, without requiring problem transformations. Examples of these including for multi-label data are k-nearest neighbors: the ML-kNN algorithm extends the k-NN classifier to multi-label data. decision trees: "Clare" is an adapted C4.5 algorithm for multi-label classification; the modification involves the entropy calculations. MMC, MMDT, and SSC refined MMDT, can classify multi-labeled data based on multi-valued attributes without transforming the attributes into single-values. They are also named multi-valued and multi-labeled decision tree classification methods. kernel methods for vector output neural networks: BP-MLL is an adaptation of the popular back-propagation algorithm for multi-label learning. == Learning paradigms == Based on learning paradigms, the existing multi-label classification techniques can be classified into batch learning and online machine learning. Batch learning algorithms require all the data samples to be available beforehand. It trains the model using the entire training data and then predicts the test sample using the found relationship. The online learning algorithms, on the other hand, incrementally build their models in sequential iterations. In iteration t, an online algorithm receives a sample, xt and predicts its label(s) ŷt using the current model; the algorithm then receives yt, the true label(s) of xt and updates its model based on the sample-label pair: (xt, yt). == Multi-label stream classification == Data streams are possibly infinite sequences of data that continuously and rapidly grow over time. Multi-label stream classification (MLSC) is the version of multi-label classification task that takes place in data streams. It is sometimes also called online multi-label classification. The difficulties of multi-label classification (exponential number of possible label sets, capturing dependencies between labels) are combined with difficulties of data streams (time and memory constraints, addressing infinite stream with finite means, concept drifts). Many MLSC methods resort to ensemble methods in order to increase their predictive performance and deal with concept drifts. Below are the most widely used ensemble methods in the literature: Online Bagging (OzaBagging)-based methods: Observing the probability of having K many of a certain data point in a bootstrap sample is approximately Poisson(1) for big datasets, each incoming data instance in a data stream can be weighted proportional to Poisson(1) distribution to mimic bootstrapping in an online setting. This is called Online Bagging (OzaBagging). Many multi-label methods that use Online Bagging are proposed in the literature, each of which utilizes different problem transformation methods. EBR, ECC, EPS, EBRT, EBMT, ML-Random Rules are examples of such methods. ADWIN Bagging-based methods: Online Bagging methods for MLSC are sometimes combined with explicit concept drift detection mechanisms such as ADWIN (Adaptive Window). ADWIN keeps a variable-sized window to detect changes in the distribution of the data, and improves the ensemble by resetting the components that perform poorly when there is a drift in the incoming data. Generally, the letter 'a' is used as a subscript in the name of such ensembles to indicate the usage of ADWIN change detector. EaBR, EaCC, EaHTPS are examples of such multi-label ensembles. GOOWE-ML-based methods: Interpreting the relevance scores of each component of the ensemble as vectors in the label space and solving a least squares problem at the end of each batch, Geometrically-Optimum Online-Weighted Ensemble for Multi-label Classification (GOOWE-ML) is proposed. The ensemble tries to minimize the distance between the weighted prediction of its components and the ground truth vector for each instance over a batch. Unlike Online Bagging and ADWIN Bagging, GOOWE-ML utilizes a weighted voting scheme where better performing components of the ensemble are given more weight. The GOOWE-ML ensemble grows over time, and the lowest weight component is replaced by a new component when it is full at the end of a batch. GOBR, GOCC, GOPS, GORT are the proposed GOOWE-ML-based multi-label ensembles. Multiple Windows : Here, BR models that use a sliding window are replaced with two windows for each label, one for relevant and one for non-relevant examples. Instances are oversampled or undersampled according to a load factor that is kept
Automatic acquisition of lexicon
Automatic acquisition of lexicon is a computerized process used for the development of a complex morphological lexicon of a language. The lexicon is essential for the NLP (Natural language processing), as well as a prerequisite to any wide-coverage parser. The two main requirements represent raw corpus and the morphological description of the language. The aim is to provide lemmas that will serve to the explanation of all the words that occur within the corpus. For the achievement of a quality lexicon it is necessary to manually validate the generated lemmas and iterate the whole process several times. The process is focused on the open word classes (e.g. nouns, adjectives, verbs). Closed classes (e.g. prepositions, pronouns, numerals) are excluded. This method is applicable to the languages with a rich morphology, such as Slovak, Russian or Croatian. Applied to Slovak, being an inflectional language, the automatic acquisition focuses on the inflectional morphology as well as on the derivational morphology. This fact enables the users to find out the information about derivational relations (e.g. adjectivizations, prefixes) in the lexicon. For example, Slovak word korpusový is an adjectivization of korpus (eng. corpus). == Three-step loop == Conformably to Benoît Sagot, there are three stages involved in the acquisition of lemmas: Generation and inflection Ranking Manual validation The more iteration will be performed, the more accurate lexicon will be obtained. For each iteration are essential the information given by a manual validator. === Generation and inflection === Firstly, all words which represent the closed word classes (pronouns, prepositions, numerals) are manually excluded from the given corpus. Number of their occurrences in the corpus is provided. Then the automatic generation comes, when the hypothetical lemmas according to the morphological description of a language are created. Generated lemmas are consequently being inflected, so that all of their inflected forms are built. Obtained forms are associated with the corresponding lemma and a morphological tag. === Ranking === There was created a probabilistic model, represented by a fix-point algorithm, to rank the hypothetical lemmas generated in the first step. Best ranked lemmas are expected to be ideally all correct, whereas the least ranked tend to be incorrect. === Manual validation === Correctness of the best- ranked lemmas created in the previous step are checked by the manual validator, who should be a native speaker. Lemmas are at this stage divided into three categories: valid lemmas, appended to lexicon erroneous lemmas generated by valid forms (later associated to another lemmas) erroneous lemmas generated by invalid forms (these need to be excluded) == Future development == Automatic acquisition, in comparison to a purely manual development of the lexicons, seems to be promising, considering the future development, because of the short validation time needed and the relatively small amount of human labor involved.
Influence diagram
An influence diagram (ID) (also called a relevance diagram, decision diagram or a decision network) is a compact graphical and mathematical representation of a decision situation. It is a generalization of a Bayesian network, in which not only probabilistic inference problems but also decision making problems (following the maximum expected utility criterion) can be modeled and solved. ID was first developed in the mid-1970s by decision analysts with an intuitive semantic that is easy to understand. It is now adopted widely and becoming an alternative to the decision tree which typically suffers from exponential growth in number of branches with each variable modeled. ID is directly applicable in team decision analysis, since it allows incomplete sharing of information among team members to be modeled and solved explicitly. Extensions of ID also find their use in game theory as an alternative representation of the game tree. == Semantics == An ID is a directed acyclic graph with three types (plus one subtype) of node and three types of arc (or arrow) between nodes. Nodes: Decision node (corresponding to each decision to be made) is drawn as a rectangle. Uncertainty node (corresponding to each uncertainty to be modeled) is drawn as an oval. Deterministic node (corresponding to special kind of uncertainty that its outcome is deterministically known whenever the outcome of some other uncertainties are also known) is drawn as a double oval. Value node (corresponding to each component of additively separable Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function) is drawn as an octagon (or diamond). Arcs: Functional arcs (ending in value node) indicate that one of the components of additively separable utility function is a function of all the nodes at their tails. Conditional arcs (ending in uncertainty node) indicate that the uncertainty at their heads is probabilistically conditioned on all the nodes at their tails. Conditional arcs (ending in deterministic node) indicate that the uncertainty at their heads is deterministically conditioned on all the nodes at their tails. Informational arcs (ending in decision node) indicate that the decision at their heads is made with the outcome of all the nodes at their tails known beforehand. Given a properly structured ID: Decision nodes and incoming information arcs collectively state the alternatives (what can be done when the outcome of certain decisions and/or uncertainties are known beforehand) Uncertainty/deterministic nodes and incoming conditional arcs collectively model the information (what are known and their probabilistic/deterministic relationships) Value nodes and incoming functional arcs collectively quantify the preference (how things are preferred over one another). Alternative, information, and preference are termed decision basis in decision analysis, they represent three required components of any valid decision situation. Formally, the semantic of influence diagram is based on sequential construction of nodes and arcs, which implies a specification of all conditional independencies in the diagram. The specification is defined by the d {\displaystyle d} -separation criterion of Bayesian network. According to this semantic, every node is probabilistically independent on its non-successor nodes given the outcome of its immediate predecessor nodes. Likewise, a missing arc between non-value node X {\displaystyle X} and non-value node Y {\displaystyle Y} implies that there exists a set of non-value nodes Z {\displaystyle Z} , e.g., the parents of Y {\displaystyle Y} , that renders Y {\displaystyle Y} independent of X {\displaystyle X} given the outcome of the nodes in Z {\displaystyle Z} . == Example == Consider the simple influence diagram representing a situation where a decision-maker is planning their vacation. There is 1 decision node (Vacation Activity), 2 uncertainty nodes (Weather Condition, Weather Forecast), and 1 value node (Satisfaction). There are 2 functional arcs (ending in Satisfaction), 1 conditional arc (ending in Weather Forecast), and 1 informational arc (ending in Vacation Activity). Functional arcs ending in Satisfaction indicate that Satisfaction is a utility function of Weather Condition and Vacation Activity. In other words, their satisfaction can be quantified if they know what the weather is like and what their choice of activity is. (Note that they do not value Weather Forecast directly) Conditional arc ending in Weather Forecast indicates their belief that Weather Forecast and Weather Condition can be dependent. Informational arc ending in Vacation Activity indicates that they will only know Weather Forecast, not Weather Condition, when making their choice. In other words, actual weather will be known after they make their choice, and only forecast is what they can count on at this stage. It also follows semantically, for example, that Vacation Activity is independent on (irrelevant to) Weather Condition given Weather Forecast is known. == Applicability to value of information == The above example highlights the power of the influence diagram in representing an extremely important concept in decision analysis known as the value of information. Consider the following three scenarios; Scenario 1: The decision-maker could make their Vacation Activity decision while knowing what Weather Condition will be like. This corresponds to adding extra informational arc from Weather Condition to Vacation Activity in the above influence diagram. Scenario 2: The original influence diagram as shown above. Scenario 3: The decision-maker makes their decision without even knowing the Weather Forecast. This corresponds to removing informational arc from Weather Forecast to Vacation Activity in the above influence diagram. Scenario 1 is the best possible scenario for this decision situation since there is no longer any uncertainty on what they care about (Weather Condition) when making their decision. Scenario 3, however, is the worst possible scenario for this decision situation since they need to make their decision without any hint (Weather Forecast) on what they care about (Weather Condition) will turn out to be. The decision-maker is usually better off (definitely no worse off, on average) to move from scenario 3 to scenario 2 through the acquisition of new information. The most they should be willing to pay for such move is called the value of information on Weather Forecast, which is essentially the value of imperfect information on Weather Condition. The applicability of this simple ID and the value of information concept is tremendous, especially in medical decision making when most decisions have to be made with imperfect information about their patients, diseases, etc. == Related concepts == Influence diagrams are hierarchical and can be defined either in terms of their structure or in greater detail in terms of the functional and numerical relation between diagram elements. An ID that is consistently defined at all levels—structure, function, and number—is a well-defined mathematical representation and is referred to as a well-formed influence diagram (WFID). WFIDs can be evaluated using reversal and removal operations to yield answers to a large class of probabilistic, inferential, and decision questions. More recent techniques have been developed by artificial intelligence researchers concerning Bayesian network inference (belief propagation). An influence diagram having only uncertainty nodes (i.e., a Bayesian network) is also called a relevance diagram. An arc connecting node A to B implies not only that "A is relevant to B", but also that "B is relevant to A" (i.e., relevance is a symmetric relationship).